Tigers first half team statistical summary

With the season half over and the Tigers now getting back to playing AL rivals, it's time for a mid-season statistical summary. One thing to keep in mind as you go through the tables below is that offense is down in the American League so far this year. The average runs scored per game is down from 4.9 in 2007 versus to 4.6 so far this year. It was even lower before the AL beat up the NL in interleague play. Anyway, where a team ranks among other teams in the league is more relevant than comparing raw numbers between 2007 and 2008.

The Tigers are third in the league in runs scored per game (4.9) after being second in 2007. Much has been made of those two 19 run games throwing off the offensive numbers and they do skew things a little but they have played enough games now where it's not a big factor. Their inconsistent offense (9 shutouts) was a problem earlier in the year but they have become more steady over the past month. run prevention has been their weakness overall this year. They have allowed 4.8 runs per game which is 12th in the league. The positive thing is that they did improve to 4.2 runs allowed per game in June.

Table 1: Overall

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
Record	88-74	5	41-40	9
R/G	5.5	2	4.9	3
RA/G	4.9	9	4.8	12

Table 2 shows that the Tigers are above average in most offensive categories including 3rd in batting average, 3rd in isolated power, 4th in OBP and 4th in slugging. The one area where they are only average is walks. However, they have improved from 2.9 per game in 2007 (12th in the league) to 3.4 this year (7th).

Table 2: Offense

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
BA	.287	2	.274	3
BB	2.93	12	3.44	7
K	6.5	7	6.1	5
ISO	.171	2	.160	3
OBP	.345	4	.342	4
SLG	.458	2	.434	4
OPS	.802	3	.776	4

Table 3 shows that their pitching is bad again this year. Looking at the starter and reliever splits, we can see that their starters ERA is 9th and their relievers ERA ranks 12th. Their starting pitching has improved remarkably since the beginning of the season though. After compiling a 5.44 ERA in their first 38 games, they have had a 3.67 ERA in their last 43.

Table 3: Pitching

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
FIP	4.73	11	4.45	12
ERA	4.57	9	4.50	12
SP ERA	4.68	9	4.51	9
RP ERA	4.37	11	4.49	12

Fielding is harder to measure but Table 4 illustrates that the Tigers are not doing nearly as well defensively this year. Using The Hardball Times plus/minus stat, they ranked 3rd in fielding last year and have dropped to 22nd this year. In this system, they break down fielding by looking at types of balls hit (ground ball, fly ball, pop up, line drive) . These stats are explained further in an article by Dave Studeman. This system is denoted +/- in the table.

Looking at Revised Zone Rating (RZR), they were 4th in 2007 and 18th so far this year. Each position on the field has a zone around it and a player's RZR is the proportion of balls hit into his zone which he converts into outs. Team RZR is the proportion of balls hit into all fielding zones which are converted into outs. Balls not hit into any zone are not considered in the calculation. For a further discussion of RZR and other fielding statistics, check out Fielding Stats at The Hardball Times by Dave Studeman.

The chart below also breaks RZR into infield and outfield. The table shows that both their infield and outfield defenses have slipped substantially this year. The infield ranked 6th in 2007 and is now 24th. Similarly, the outfield has gone from 1st to 17th.

Table 4: Fielding

	2007		2008
	#	Rank	#	Rank
+/-	+45	3	-12	22
RZR Overall	.829	4	.824	18
RZR Infield	.781	6	.770	24
RZR Outfield	.898	1	.900	17

In summary, both pitching and defense have slowed the Tigers this year. The offense was inconsistent early but they have become more balanced as the season has gone along. Scoring has not been a big problem overall. I think the offense will actually do a little better in the second half. The defense will probably remain average to below average. The pitching will likely be the key to whether they stay in the race. Their starting pitching has been solid over the last seven weeks. If they can keep that up (and that's a big if with two rookies in the rotation), they should be in good shape.