Monday, September 11, 2006

Real Numbers Versus Projections

Before the season started, I took forecasts from three popular projection systems listed below:

I entered projections from these three systems into a spreadsheet and calculated the averages for Tiger hitters and pitchers. When the season was at the half-way point, I compared the stats at that time to the pre-season projections and found that the majority of players were outperforming their projections. Now, with Tigers mired in a terrible slump at the 144 game mark, I thought it would be a good time for an update. Are they still doing better than their projections? To keep it simple, I use OPS for hitters and ERA for pitchers. The results are tabulated in the tables below. Here are the highlights:


  • Carlos Guillen (+.082), Brandon Inge (+.033) and Marcus Thames (.095) are all performing above their projected OPS.
  • Curtis Granderson (-.052), Placido Polanco (-.114), Ivan Rodriguez (-.033), Magglio Ordonez (-.039), Chris Shelton (-.064) and Dmitri Young (-.113), are significantly below their projected OPS.
  • Craig Monroe (.005) is both pretty close to his projection.
  • Kenny Rogers (-0.62), Nate Robertson (-0.66), Mike Maroth (-1.26), Zach Miner (-0.78), Justin Verlander (-0.79), Fernando Rodney (-0.41), Joel Zumaya (-2.80) and Jamie Walker (-2.10) are all performing better than their projected ERA.
  • Todd Jones (0.35) is performing a little worse than his projected ERA.
  • Jeremy Bonderman (0.10) is pretty close to his projected ERA.

The last time I looked at this, there were 5 batters performing above their projections and 3 below. Now, there are only 3 hitters performing above their projections and 6 below. Given their month long hitting slump, this is not surprising.


On the other hand, most of the pitchers are still performing better than their projections as was the case in July. The only one that was performing above his projection in July who isn’t now is Jeremy Bonderman. Again, none of this is a surprise.



Table 1: Projected OPS Versus 144 Game OPS


Player

Proj. OPS

81 Game OPS

Actual-Proj

Granderson

0.808

0.756

-0.052

Polanco

0.798

0.684

-0.114

Rodriguez

0.784

0.751

-0.033

Ordonez

0.841

0.802

-0.039

Guillen

0.812

0.894

0.082

Shelton

0.873

0.809

-0.064

Monroe

0.792

0.797

0.005

Inge

0.731

0.764

0.033

Thames

0.795

0.890

0.095

Young

0.813

0.700

-0.113


Table 2: Projected ERA Versus 144 Game ERA


Player

Proj. ERA

81 Game ERA

Actual-Proj

Rogers

4.53

3.91

-0.62

Bonderman

4.08

4.18

0.10

Robertson

4.50

3.84

-0.66

Maroth

4.68

3.42

-1.26

Verlander

3.98

3.19

-0.79

Miner

5.33

4.55

-0.78

Jones

4.12

4.47

0.35

Rodney

3.60

3.19

-0.41

Zumaya

4.78

1.98

-2.80

Walker

4.13

2.03

-2.10

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