Kenny Rogers Headed for Trouble?

Kenny Rogers may be starting the all-star game next week. With his strong first half pitching and role as a second pitching coach on a blossoming staff, he may have already earned his salary (at least by Major League Baseball standards) for the year. However, there is still a second half of the season to go and he has had three straight sub-par starts. Should we be worried?

At the request of Ozz, a frequent commenter on the site, I looked at some statistics from past seasons to see how much his reputation as a poor second half pitcher is deserved. The table below looks at his pre-all star and post-all star ERA splits for 2002-2005.

Table: Pre and Post All Star ERA Splits For Kenny Rogers in 2002-2005

Year	Team	Pre-all star	Post-all star	Total
2002	Texas	3.57	4.16	3.84
2003	Minnesota	4.17	4.89	4.57
2004	Texas	4.21	5.46	4.76
2005	Texas	2.54	4.72	3.46

Now, I'm not a big believer in using arbitrary splits to project into the future but 4 consecutive years of substantial drop in performance in the second half of the year is cause for concern. It's been said that he ran into trouble in the past because he tired in the Texas heat but that doesn't explain his 2003 season with Minnesota. And remember it does get hot in Detroit during the summer too.

He has given up 15 runs over 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts which may be a sign that a second half slide is already starting. I'd say that there is a good chance that his best pitching of the year is behind him. The one thing which may help him is Comerica Park which is quite a bit more friendly for pitchers than either The Ballpark in Arlington or the Metrodome. So, even though we might expect a worse second half than first half, his ERA might not be as high this year as in past second halves.