Run Prevention

The goal of every baseball team when they are not at bat is to give up as few runs as possible. This, of course, is done with pitching and fielding. The problem is how to separate pitching from fielding so we can evaluate each one of them in isolation. Because pitching and fielding are so intertwined this is not an easy task. However, sabermetric advancements are being made.

The first person known to quantify team fielding ability in a useful way was Bill James in his abstracts published in the 1980s. He developed a measure which he called Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER). DER is the percentage of times batted balls are turned into outs by the team's fielders, not including homeruns. There are different versions of the formula but the one now most commonly used is DER=(BFP-H-K-BB-HBP-0.6*E)/(BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP) where BFP = batters faced pitcher, H=hits allowed, K=strikeouts, BB=walks allowed, HBP=hits batsmen and E=errors.

Pitching is more complicated. For years the only attempt to isolate pitching from fielding was ERA which was supposed to remove the effect of fielding errors from runs allowed. ERA is flawed, in part, because it is dependent on the whims of different official scorers. More importantly, it does not take into account the ability of fielders to get to balls.

In 2000, Voros McCracken published the results of his study which showed that there is little difference among major league pitchers in their ability to prevent hits on balls hit in the field of play. This conclusion was met with much skepticism even in the sabermetric community. His theory has been tested rigorously and weakened somewhat but his main concept has so far been shown to be true. That is, hits allowed by pitchers are more a function of team fielding ability than the ability of the pitcher.

The idea is that the contribution of pitching to overall team defense can be derived, for the most part, from walks allowed, strikeouts, homeruns allowed and hits batsmen issued. McCracken referred to those as Defense Independent Statistics (or DIPS). Tangotiger derived a statisctic from DIPS called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). FIP measures pitcher performance essentially independent from fielding. The formula is HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP plus a league specific factor to make it equivalent to ERA.

At the Major League Baseball Graphs site, it was reported that 82% of ERA variance by pitchers is explained by FIP and DER. This is a fairly high correlation and it supports the theory that FIP and DER tell you most of what you need about run prevention. Furthermore, they found that FIP, by itself, explains 54% of the variation in ERA and that DER, by itself, explains 31% of the variation in ERA. This tells us that pitching is more important to run prevention than fielding but that fielding is also essential. In short, what Bill James has always said is true: “Much of what we think of as pitching is actually fielding”.

So we have DER to measure overall team fielding and FIP to measure overall team pitching. This doesn’t explain everything about run prevention but it does a pretty good job. The table below shows the runs allowed (RA), ERA, FIP and DER for each American League team in 2005. These figures were abstracted from The Hardball Times Baseball Annual.

Team	RA	ERA	FIP	DER
CLE	642	3.61	3.94	.711
LAA	643	3.68	3.91	.700
CHA	645	3.61	4.14	.713
OAK	658	3.69	4.11	.717
MIN	662	3.71	4.03	.703
TOR	705	4.06	4.44	.701
SEA	751	4.49	4.59	.702
DET	787	4.51	4.60	.696
NYA	789	4.52	4.30	.691
BAL	800	4.57	4.54	.693
BOS	805	4.74	4.30	.683
TEX	858	4.96	4.40	.682
KC	935	5.50	4.76	.667
TB	936	5.39	4.92	.682
Avg.	758	4.35	4.35	.696

The following tables lists the ranks for each team in RA, ERA, FIP and DER

Team	RA Rank	ERA Rank	FIP Rank	DER Rank
CLE	1	1	2	3
LAA	2	3	1	7
CHA	3	2	5	2
OAK	4	4	4	1
MIN	5	5	3	4
TOR	6	6	9	6
SEA	7	7	11	5
DET	8	8	12	8
NYA	9	9	6	10
BAL	10	10	10	9
BOS	11	11	7	11
TEX	12	12	8	12
KC	13	14	13	14
TB	14	13	14	13

It can be seen in the first table that the Tigers gave up 4% more runs than the league average. Most of that was due to poor pitching (FIP was 6% above league average). Their fielding (DER=.696) was league average.

In the second table, it can be seen that the Tigers ranked 8th in run prevention. They had the 12^th best pitching in the league but their fielding was ranked 8^th. This is not to say that fielding is more important in run prevention than pitching. The ranks came out strange because there were a bunch of teams with similar RA. I think it does say that their average fielding helped out their poor pitching somewhat though.

Winter Meetings Update - Sunday

In Lynn Henning's column this morning, he includes a lot of quotes from Dave Dombrowski. As you might expect, they are the typical guarded quotes you would get from Dombrowski and many other GMs.

First, Dombrowski talks about the pitchers they did not get.

"None of it's a surprise," said Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski, whose cell phone will be utilizing four-wheel drive at the four-day meetings. "I think it's one of those things. There were a couple of guys we had a shot at, and a couple from a financial perspective that we just weren't prepared to go where other clubs were going.

"We weren't prepared to go five years for a reliever (Ryan). We just didn't want to make that kind of a commitment, although Toronto decided it was worthwhile. In some cases, we haven't wanted to go a certain amount of years that other clubs were offering."

He still says getting a starter and a closer is his top priority.

The Tigers will resume their safari in Dallas and believe they'll yet bag a closer and starter, realizing they have weeks, even months, to talk after the meetings close. The mission is no different than it was Oct. 3, when Dombrowski hired manager Jim Leyland and announced the Tigers' top offseason priority is to add pitching.

"Our needs and desires haven't changed," Dombrowski said Friday, all but repeating what Leyland said last month: that many of the Tigers' difficulties in 2005 stemmed from inexperience in the rotation and in the closer's role.

Here is my non-committal GM favorite:

"We like a lot of our talent. But we'd like to get a veteran presence out there. And I think we'll end up getting somebody at some point."

Trevor Hoffman probably won't be a Tiger next year.

One free-agent reliever still available is Padres star Trevor Hoffman, who, despite his 38 years and strict reliance on a change-up, wants a three-year contract in the $27 million range. The Tigers won't be biting.

AJ Burnett probably won't be either. Henning mentions Matt Morris, Javier Vazquez and Carl Pavano as a possibilies. Remember that Vazquez has the Tigers on his blacklist though.

The Tigers would love A.J. Burnett, a Dombrowski favorite since he traded for him while running the Marlins. But Burnett is looking for a grandiose five-year deal. He also doesn't appear to be entertaining thoughts of the Tigers, even if they are ready to splurge.

Matt Morris, a longtime Cardinals right-hander, is possible -- if he doesn't move into the extended-year stratosphere that has come to define offers made during the opening weeks of free agency.

The Tigers might also shoot for a trade, perhaps for Javier Vazquez of the Diamondbacks or Carl Pavano of the Yankees. Trades are expected to be unusually plentiful this week, mostly because talented free agents have been few, and expensive.

Dombrowski expects to be active during the Winter Meetings.

I do anticipate it being an active time as far as a lot of conversations," Dombrowski said of the Dallas meetings. "There have already been some very active conversations we've had with other clubs. And I think it (the Dallas gathering) will be busy. I know there'll be a lot of agents there, and we'll have conversations with them, as well.

"Will anything happen? I don't know. But it will be active. And what doesn't happen next week will lead to activity later on."

The Pavano rumor re-visted

The Hartford Courant reports that the Yankees and Tigers have discussed a possible deal for Carl Pavano. This is old news but the writer seems to think it is still a possibility.

The Yankees have engaged the Tigers about right fielder Craig Monroe, and also might be interested in Detroit's Curtis Granderson, a promising center fielder. The Tigers, who need starting pitching, have asked Cashman about Carl Pavano, who has three years and $30 million left on his contract. Cashman has said he does not want to trade Pavano, but there could be a fit with Detroit.

I'm pretty sure there is no way the Tigers would trade Granderson in a deal for Carl Pavano. Sure, Granderson may never develop into anything special but he has too much potential to deal for an injury prone pitcher with a huge contract. I could see them trading Monroe but he's not a legitimate regular center fielder so I'd be surprised if the Yankees would want him fot that role. I actually think Nook Logan would be the best fit for the Yankees as they are one of the few teams that have enough offense in the rest of their line-up to carry a defensive specialist. I don't think the Yankees are looking for a defensive specialist though.

Winter Meetings Update

Since we have now moved into the heart of the hot stove season, I'll get away from sabermetrics for a bit and try to provide regular updates on the winter meetings over the next several days. In today's news, John Lowe of The Free Press reports on the Tiger's search for a closer and says that there is mutual interest in Todd Jones returning to the Tigers next year. Here are the highlights:

The Tigers remain interested in some of the remaining free-agent closers, president Dave Dombrowski said Friday without identifying any.

The remaining group includes a trio of right-handers who had at least 40 saves each last season: San Diego's Trevor Hoffman, Cleveland's Bob Wickman and Florida's Todd Jones, the former Tiger.

There are indications that Jones is interested in signing with the Tigers and that the Tigers are interested in him.

"We might get somebody who can pitch at the back end of the bullpen with Fernando -- somebody who can perhaps save some games and set up," Dombrowski said.

"A lot of clubs need them," Dombrowski said. "Clubs apparently have dollars to spend. The relievers are some of the better free agents available. The strongest area in free agency this year is probably the bullpen."

Looking at Jones's career statistics makes you question whether he can repeat last year's brilliant performace but it's probably worth a shot if the contract is not too absurd. I certainly hope they would not go beyond two years for Jones.

Nomar Garciaparra

Josh Suchon, who writes for Inside Bay Area, reports that the Tigers and a few other teams have inquired about Nomar Garciaparra:

Beane has talked to Arn Tellem, the agent for Frank Thomas and Nomar Garciaparra (who is willing to play the outfield). But again, whether there's mutual interest — especially for Garciaparra being mostly a DH — or the cost remains a question for a couple of players who are injury risks.

The Twins and Angels are among those interested in Thomas. The Indians, Pirates, Tigers and Orioles have inquired about Garciaparra.

If the Tigers really do have serious interest in Garciaparra, I would guess it would be to play third base so that Inge could be freed up to play the supersub role.

Getting Ready for the Winter Meetings

The Winter Meetings are taking place in Dallas next week so the rumors are starting to fly around. Lynn Henning has several columns in the Detroit News this morning. I don't know how much of this is based on inside information. It's probably just Henning tossing around some ideas like the rest of us. However, some of the ideas are interesting and the Detroit papers have been so devoid of Tiger news this winter, it's refreshing just to see some Tiger talk:

• In the first one, he goes through the whole roster and gives his thoughts on what changes might be made.
• He lists some more possibilities in his burning questions column.
• He talks about the possibility of acquiring Garciaparra in a third column.

A couple of Colorado newspapers also have some notes:

• This column is not specifically about the Tigers but Tracy Ringolsby mentions a possible Ivan Rodriguez for Kris Benson swap.
• In a column concerning Brian Fuentes, The Denver Post talks about the the Tigers having interest in Matt Mantei.

And finally, the latest from Jason Beck. Not a lot of new information in this one but at least he got a couple of actual quotes from Dave Dombrowski which is not an easy task this off season.

Gordon Signs with Phillies

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Philadelphia Phillies have agreed to a three year deal with Tom Gordon. Three years is a lot for a 38 year old but it's definitely a player's market this year. Giving a big contract to a pitcher his age makes more sense for the Phillies who can win now than the Tigers who probably can't. The Tigers will now probably concentrate their efforts on Trevor Hoffman.