So, Now How Many Games Will The Tigers Win in 2016?

During the winter, I crunched the numbers and arrived at 90 wins for the Tigers.  When I saw that other sites such as FanGraphs (81 wins) and Baseball Prospectus (79) were must less optimistic about the Tigers, I was thinking maybe I was being biased.  So, I looked at my projections again, but came to the conclusion that the Tigers were a better team than the more sophisticated systems were saying.

The biggest discrepancy between Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection and my rudimentary formula was for outfielder JD Martinez.  PECOTA is pegging him for a .781 OPS in 2016 after hitting .912 in 2014 and .879 in 2016.  I am guessing without reservation that he'll be closer to .900 than .781.  Other individual differences are smaller, but Baseball Prospectus has the Tigers scoring 692 runs in aggregate whereas as I have them scoring 755.

On the pitching side. PECOTA projects Justin Verlander to have a 3.92 ERA whereas I am guessing he will be closer to last year's 3.38 ERA.  Overall, Baseball Prospectus guesses the Tigers will allow 713 runs.  By my calculations (before spring training), they would allow 663.

Now, a week before the season starts, I am not budging on my 755 runs scored prediction.  Their offense is sound and I will be surprised if they do not hit.  The wildcard of course is designated hitter Victor Martinez.  If he is awful again this year, then that changes the outlook a bit, but my projections  already assume some fragility.  I don't think he will be anywhere close to what he was in 2014 when he slugged his way to a .974 OPS.  A better guess is 2013 (when he OPSed .785), but with fewer plate appearances.

The pitching, on the other hand, looks different than it did in February.  Injuries to Daniel Norris (fractured vertabrae), Alex Wilson (sore shoulder) and Blaine Hardy (shoulder impingement) have dampened my enthusiasm soewhat.  On the positive side, it looks as if Anibal Sanchez has recovered from his early spring ailment.  History tells us he will not get through a full season , but I only have him programmed for a 160 innings anyway.

I am guessing we will see about 100 additional innings (compared to my earlier prediction) that will be pitched by pitchers not named Daniel Norris, Alex Wilson and Blaine Hardy.  This will hurt because although they have better depth than last year, it is still not good. So, my pitching projection needs to be adjusted.

For the projection, I first estimate the innings pitched in 2016 for their projected starters and key bullpen pieces (Table 1 below).  In order to forecast runs allowed, I used three-year averages on three measures from 2013-2015 all adjusted for projected innings this year:

• Runs Allowed.

• Base Runs - estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on base runners, total bases and home runs.

• Runs Allowed according to FIP estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on strikeouts, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs.

For example, Justin Verlander allowed an average of 99 runs per 210 innings (his projected 2016 total) from 2013-2015.  He also had 95 Base Runs and 80 FIP Runs.  The average of the three numbers above (99, 95, 80) is 91.  Given his return to form at the end of last year, I expect Verlander to be a little better than his three-year average next year, I'm estimating 85 runs allowed.  
I project the rest of the pitchers similarly moving them up or down from their three-year averages if I think they are going to get better or worse this year. 

My new runs allowed estimate is 691 which combined with 755 runs scored yields a differential of 64.  Since ten runs is worth roughly one win, the Tigers should win six more games than a.500 team. So, I now have them winning 87 games.   Hopefully, I will not have to make any more adjustments before opening day unless it involves the acquisition of a healthy pitcher!

Table 1: Projected Runs Allowed By Tigers Pitchers in 2016

		Average for 2013-2015*
Pitcher	Proj IP	RA	BSR	FIPRuns	Comb	Proj R	Proj ERA
Justin Verlander	210	99	95	80	91	85	3.35
Jordan Zimmermann	200	77	76	73	75	85	3.52
Anibal Sanchez	160	69	64	57	63	75	3.88
Mike Pelfrey	150	89	85	70	81	80	4.42
Daniel Norris	90	48	44	47	46	45	4.14
Shane Greene	80	52	47	39	46	45	4.66
Francisco Rodriguez	65	20	24	26	25	25	3.18
Mark Lowe	60	28	28	24	27	27	3.73
Justin Wilson	55	19	18	20	19	19	2.86
Alex Wilson	35	12	14	13	13	15	3.55
Blaine Hardy	35	12	14	12	13	13	3.08
Drew VerHagen	35	10	10	16	12	15	3.55
Bruce Rondon	30	17	16	12	15	15	4.14
Other	240				147	147	5.07
Totals	1,445				673	691	3.95

*Average adjusted for projected innings in 2016.

Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com