Dallas Keuchel Tops AL Run Prevention Leaders

Astros ace Dallas Keuchel is a strong Cy Young candidate
(Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today Sports)

With the regular season now in the distant past, I'll present the final installment of the American League run prevention leaders.   

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in baseball, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  There are several different ways to do this:   

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated runs allowed by fielders. 

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

• FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.

These measures are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing them, you can aggregate them using weights depending on which measures you trust the most.  Here, they are calculated using a simple average.

The 2015 American League leaders are listed in Table 1 below.  Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel finished first in Pitching Runs (43), Adjusted Pitching Runs (42) and Base Runs (41) and third in FIP Runs (36).  That gave him a league-leading 40 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher. David Price of the Tigers and Blue Jays was second with 34 runs prevented and Athletics ace Sonny Gray was a distant third at 26.

Beyond Price who accumulated 18 runs prevented with Detroit, the leading Tiger was Justin Verlander with 11 in 133.1 innings.  As you probably guessed, the rest of the staff did not do so well as no other starter finished above average.  Moreover, of 18 pitchers who cost their teams at least 10 runs, four - Shane Greene (20), Alfredo Simon (19), Buck Farmer (-14) and Anibal Sanchez (-10) - pitched exclusively for the Tigers and one other - Matt Boyd (-19) - pitched mostly for the Tigers.  

Table 1: 2015 American League Run Prevention Leaders

Pitcher	Team	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Dallas Keuchel*	HOU	232	43	42	41	36	40
David Price*	***	220.1	35	36	28	38	34
Sonny Gray	OAK	208	28	27	33	17	26
Chris Sale*	CHW	208.2	11	16	21	37	21
Chris Archer	TBR	212	16	13	26	30	21
Corey Kluber	CLE	222	14	13	26	33	21
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	183.2	12	12	20	30	18
Jose Quintana*	CHW	206.1	17	23	5	27	18
Marco Estrada	TOR	181	19	19	20	-0	14
Adam Warren	NYY	131.1	12	15	15	11	13
Felix Hernandez	SEA	201.2	16	14	14	7	13
Jake Odorizzi	TBR	169.1	16	13	9	10	12
Justin Verlander	DET	133.1	7	9	16	12	11
Danny Salazar	CLE	185	9	8	13	14	11
Collin McHugh	HOU	203.2	8	7	7	16	9
Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	154	7	11	11	6	9
Yovani Gallardo	TEX	184.1	12	17	-3	11	9
Scott Kazmir*	***	182.3	10	9	11	5	9
Wei-Yin Chen*	BAL	191.1	13	17	-3	5	8
Edinson Volquez	KCR	200.1	6	5	9	11	8
Erasmo Ramirez	TBR	163.1	5	2	16	7	7
Kyle Gibson	MIN	194.2	5	8	8	8	7
Garrett Richards	LAA	207.1	5	-1	16	5	6

Data source: Baseball-Rerence.com