There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in baseball, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs. So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher. In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:
- Pitching Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed.
- Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated runs allowed by fielders.
- Base Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.
- FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.
The 2015 American League leaders as of July 31 are listed in Table 1 below. Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel is first in Pitching Runs (30), Adjusted Pitching Runs (29), second in Base Runs (29) and third in FIP Runs (25). That gives him a league-leading 28 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher. Athletics ace right hander Sonny Gray is second with 27 Runs Prevented.
The leading Tiger before the deadline trades was David Price with 18 Runs Prevented, good for sixth in the AL. All of the other Tigers with at least 75 innings are below average - Anibal Sanchez (-5), Alfredo Simon (-8) and Shane Greene (-18). Greene is last among AL qualifiers.
Table 1: AL 2015 Run Prevention Leaders
Team
|
IP
|
Pitching
Runs
|
Adjusted
Pitching Runs
|
Base
Runs
|
FIP
Runs
|
Average
|
|
Dallas
Keuchel*
|
HOU
|
151
|
30
|
29
|
29
|
25
|
28
|
Sonny
Gray
|
OAK
|
145.2
|
29
|
29
|
31
|
20
|
27
|
Chris
Archer
|
TBR
|
141.2
|
19
|
14
|
24
|
24
|
20
|
Scott
Kazmir*
|
***
|
123.4
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
14
|
20
|
Chris
Sale*
|
CHW
|
137.2
|
12
|
18
|
16
|
30
|
19
|
David
Price*
|
DET
|
146
|
18
|
20
|
13
|
20
|
18
|
Corey
Kluber
|
CLE
|
157
|
9
|
9
|
18
|
27
|
16
|
Felix
Hernandez
|
SEA
|
137
|
17
|
17
|
15
|
11
|
15
|
Lance
McCullers
|
HOU
|
76.1
|
11
|
11
|
10
|
12
|
11
|
Clay
Buchholz
|
BOS
|
113.1
|
5
|
9
|
9
|
21
|
11
|
Jake
Odorizzi
|
TBR
|
97.2
|
14
|
11
|
8
|
7
|
10
|
Jose
Quintana*
|
CHW
|
135.1
|
8
|
14
|
-0
|
17
|
10
|
Hector
Santiago*
|
LAA
|
123.1
|
17
|
14
|
5
|
-1
|
9
|
Carlos
Carrasco
|
CLE
|
127.1
|
2
|
2
|
7
|
18
|
7
|
Mark
Buehrle*
|
TOR
|
134
|
8
|
10
|
3
|
6
|
7
|
Adam
Warren
|
NYY
|
97.2
|
4
|
9
|
8
|
5
|
7
|
Edinson
Volquez
|
KCR
|
126
|
6
|
5
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
Jesse
Chavez
|
OAK
|
114.2
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
11
|
6
|
Yovani
Gallardo
|
TEX
|
127.1
|
5
|
10
|
4
|
7
|
6
|
Jeff
Samardzija
|
CHW
|
148.1
|
-0
|
7
|
6
|
12
|
6
|
Nate
Karns
|
TBR
|
115
|
8
|
5
|
7
|
3
|
6
|
Danny
Salazar
|
CLE
|
119.1
|
2
|
3
|
9
|
9
|
6
|
Garrett
Richards
|
LAA
|
122.2
|
7
|
3
|
10
|
2
|
6
|
Kyle
Gibson
|
MIN
|
124
|
6
|
9
|
5
|
3
|
6
|
The 2015 National League leaders as of July 31 are listed in Table 2 below. Dodgers right hander Zack Greinke leads in Pitching Runs (42), Adjusted Pitching Runs (39) and Base Runs (36) and is fourth in FIP Runs (22) That averages out to a league-leading 35 Runs Prevented.. Nationals fire baller Max Scherzer is second with 28 Runs Prevented.
Table 2: NL 2015 Run Prevention Leaders
Pitcher
|
Team
|
IP
|
Pitching
Runs
|
Adjusted
Pitching Runs
|
Base
Runs
|
FIP
Runs
|
Average
|
Zack
Greinke
|
LAD
|
146.1
|
42
|
39
|
36
|
22
|
35
|
Max
Scherzer
|
WSN
|
150
|
28
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
Jacob
deGrom
|
NYM
|
127.1
|
24
|
22
|
27
|
19
|
23
|
Clayton
Kershaw*
|
LAD
|
140
|
18
|
16
|
24
|
29
|
22
|
Jake
Arrieta
|
CHC
|
140.2
|
18
|
21
|
20
|
23
|
21
|
Gerrit
Cole
|
PIT
|
132.1
|
20
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
19
|
Johnny
Cueto
|
CIN
|
130.2
|
17
|
16
|
20
|
14
|
17
|
Francisco
Liriano
|
PIT
|
126.1
|
14
|
13
|
19
|
14
|
15
|
Shelby
Miller
|
ATL
|
133
|
17
|
18
|
13
|
12
|
15
|
Lance
Lynn
|
STL
|
116.1
|
14
|
14
|
9
|
16
|
13
|
John
Lackey
|
STL
|
139.1
|
18
|
17
|
9
|
9
|
13
|
Carlos
Martinez
|
STL
|
124.1
|
18
|
17
|
6
|
8
|
12
|
Michael
Wacha
|
STL
|
125.1
|
11
|
11
|
13
|
11
|
11
|
Mike
Bolsinger
|
LAD
|
89
|
11
|
10
|
10
|
11
|
10
|
Matt
Harvey
|
NYM
|
133
|
13
|
10
|
11
|
5
|
10
|
Noah
Syndergaard
|
NYM
|
86.2
|
9
|
7
|
10
|
12
|
10
|
Cole
Hamels*
|
PHI
|
128.2
|
5
|
11
|
9
|
12
|
9
|
Jon
Lester*
|
CHC
|
132.2
|
5
|
7
|
6
|
18
|
9
|
A.J.
Burnett
|
PIT
|
135.1
|
10
|
9
|
3
|
13
|
9
|
Chris
Heston
|
SFG
|
126
|
9
|
3
|
13
|
9
|
8
|
Jason
Hammel
|
CHC
|
118
|
5
|
7
|
9
|
11
|
8
|
Madison
Bumgarner
|
SFG
|
138
|
10
|
4
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
Jordan
Zimmermann
|
WSN
|
128.2
|
5
|
7
|
6
|
12
|
8
|
Tyson
Ross
|
SDP
|
127.2
|
5
|
3
|
7
|
14
|
7
|
Mike
Leake
|
CIN
|
136.2
|
6
|
6
|
8
|
3
|
6
|
Data source: Baseball-Rerence.com
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