David Price Ranks High Among AL Run Prevention Leaders

As we approach the half-way point of the season, it's a good time to present the sabermetric pitching leaders.   

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated runs allowed by fielders. 

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

• FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.

These measures are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing them, you can aggregate them using weights depending on which measures you trust the most. I usually just take a simple average.

The 2015 American League leaders as of June 22 are listed in Table 1 below.  Athletics ace right hander Sonny Gray leads the league in Pitching Runs (22), Adjusted Pitching Runs (21) and Base Runs (23) and was third in FIP Runs (16).  That gave him an average of 20 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher.  

Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel and Rays right hander Chris Archer are tied for second in Average Runs Prevented with 18.

The leading Tiger is ace David Price with an average of 11 tying him for fifth in the league with , Jesses Chavez of the Athletics.  His run prevention numbers are pretty consistent across the board - 7th in Pitching Runs (11), 5th in Adjusted Pitching Runs (10), 7th in Base Runs (10) and 5th in FIP Runs (14).  The only other Tiger with a positive average is Alfredo Simon with +2.  Other Tigers with 50+ innings have cost the team runs - Anibal Sanchez (-3) and Shane Greene (-11) compared to an an average pitcher.  

Table 1: AL 2015 Run Prevention Leaders

Pitcher	Team	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Sonny Gray	OAK	101.2	22	21	23	16	20
Dallas Keuchel*	HOU	107.1	20	19	22	11	18
Chris Archer	TBR	95	18	14	19	20	18
Chris Sale*	CHW	88.2	12	17	16	20	16
Jesse Chavez	OAK	78.2	11	10	12	11	11
David Price*	DET	97.1	11	10	10	14	11
Jake Odorizzi	TBR	76.2	13	10	9	8	10
Felix Hernandez	SEA	97.1	10	10	12	5	9
Corey Kluber	CLE	103.2	2	4	8	16	8
Yovani Gallardo	TEX	87.2	5	8	7	8	7
Scott Kazmir*	OAK	83.1	8	8	7	5	7
C.J. Wilson*	LAA	93	6	4	10	4	6
Mike Pelfrey	MIN	78.2	8	10	4	0	6
Chris Young	KCR	63.2	8	7	7	0	5
Hector Santiago*	LAA	87.1	12	10	4	-5	5
Wandy Rodriguez*	TEX	64.2	6	8	3	4	5
Wei-Yin Chen*	BAL	81	6	7	3	3	5
Ubaldo Jimenez	BAL	74.1	4	5	3	6	4
Edinson Volquez	KCR	83.2	3	1	7	5	4
Nick Martinez	TEX	84.1	7	9	-1	1	4
Clay Buchholz	BOS	86	-2	1	3	14	4
Jesse Hahn	OAK	84.2	-1	-2	12	6	4
Adam Warren	NYY	77	2	6	5	0	4

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com