How Many Runs Will The Tigers Allow in 2015?

The Tigers are counting on recently acquired Alfredo Simon to replace Rick Porcello in 2015.
(Photo credit: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports) 

Now that I have projected the Tigers runs scored total for 2015, the next step is to estimate how many runs they will give up.  Run prevention is more difficult to predict because pitcher's arms are so fragile and their performance so volatile, but I'll do my best.

The Tigers allowed 705 runs in 2014 which was lower than only five other American League teams. That was 81 runs more than the 624 they allowed in 2013 when they had one of the best rotations in recent history.  While their starters remained relatively strong last year, they were bogged down by a leaky defense and equally inept bullpen.   

The return of shortstop Jose Iglesias and additions of outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Anthony Gose should give them a much improved defense.  This might help Justin Verlander, who may have had some bad luck on batted balls (.317 Batting Average on Balls In Play) last year.  On the other hand, off-season acquisition Alfredo Simon will be leaving the Reds who led the majors in Defensive Runs Saved.  

For the projection, I first estimate the innings pitched in 2015 for their five current starters and key bullpen pieces (Table 1).  In order to forecast runs allowed, I used three-year averages on three measures from 2012-2014 all adjusted for projected innings this year:

• Runs Allowed.

• Base Runs - estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on base runners, total bases and home runs.

• Runs Allowed according to FIP estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on strikeouts, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs.

For example, Justin Verlander allowed an average of 92 runs per 210 innings (his projected 2015 total) from 2012-2014.  He also had 89 Base Runs and 76 FIP Runs.  The average of the three numbers above (92, 89, 76) is 86.  Since I expect Verlander to be similar to his three-year average next year, I'm estimating 86 runs allowed.

I project the rest of the pitchers similarly moving them up or down from their three-year averages if I think they are going to get better or worse this year.  In particular, I'm guessing that three starters will be somewhat worse than their averages: (1) Right-hander Anibal Sanchez will regress a little due to his age (31) and injury history.  (2) Newcomer Shane Greene likely pitched over his head for the Yankees last year, but I think he'll do better than PECOTA suggests (5.60 ERA!). (3) Simon will not have the benefit of the best defense in the majors this year.

My estimates of 770 runs scored and 674 allowed yields a differential of 96 or 9 to 10 wins above .500.  Thus, my early call for the season is a 90-72, which would match last year's record.  I'll check back again after things get sorted out more in spring training.  

Table 1: Projected Runs Allowed for Tigers Pitching Staff in 2015

		Averages for 2012-2014*
Player	Proj IP	RA	BSR	FIP Runs	Comb	Proj R	Proj ERA
Price	220	82	79	75	79	80	3.01
Verlander	210	92	89	76	86	86	3.39
Sanchez	170	70	65	54	63	75	3.65
Greene	155	75	74	62	70	80	4.27
Simon	170	69	71	81	74	85	4.14
Soria	60	26	21	17	21	21	2.90
Nathan	50	17	17	16	17	25	4.14
Alburquerque	55	19	21	21	20	20	3.01
Rondon	45	18	22	15	18	18	3.31
Krol	35	21	24	19	21	21	4.97
Hanrahan	35	14	18	20	17	17	4.02
Gorzellany	35	14	18	15	16	16	3.79
Other	215				130	130	5.01
Totals	1,455				632	674	3.84

*Average adjusted for projected innings in 2015.