Sunday, June 01, 2014

Johnny Cueto is the NL Run Prevention Leader

Johnny Cueto is the NL leader in runs prevented
(Photo credit: USA Today Sports Images)

Earlier today, I posted the American League run prevention leaders through May.  Now, for the National League. 

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    
  • Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 
  • Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.
  • FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.
These measured are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing each measure, I then take the average of the four. 

The current National League leaders are listed in Table 1 below.  Reds right hander Johnny Cueto leads the league with 18 Pitching Runs, 17 Adjusted Pitching Runs 22 Base Runs and is third with 12 FIP Runs.  That gives him an average of 17 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher.  

Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals is second with 14 runs prevented.  He is first in FIP Runs (14), second in Pitching Runs (18) and Base Runs (16) and fourth in Adjusted Pitching Runs (12).

Table 1: NL Run Prevention Leaders as of May 31, 2014
Pitcher
Team
IP
Pitching Runs
Adjusted Pitching Runs
Base Runs
FIP Runs
Average
Johnny Cueto
CIN
91.0
18
17
22
12
17
Adam Wainwright
STL
85.1
16
12
16
14
14
Jeff Samardzija
CHC
75.0
13
15
12
11
13
Julio Teheran
ATL
83.2
16
14
13
3
12
Tim Hudson
SFG
70.1
14
12
11
7
11
Jason Hammel
CHC
71.1
10
11
14
8
11
Michael Wacha
STL
73.1
11
7
11
10
9
Zack Greinke
LAD
66.0
10
9
3
6
7
Jose Fernandez
MIA
51.2
4
4
8
11
7
Mike Leake
CIN
77.0
7
5
9
4
6
Jon Niese*
NYM
62.1
7
5
6
3
5
Andrew Cashner
SDP
57.1
5
3
5
6
5
Aaron Harang
ATL
65.2
2
1
4
13
5
Hyun-jin Ryu*
LAD
58.1
3
2
5
9
5
Ian Kennedy
SDP
73.2
5
1
4
8
5
Kyle Lohse
MIL
74.0
5
3
5
5
4
Josh Beckett
LAD
60.2
8
7
5
-2
4
Lance Lynn
STL
69.0
6
2
3
6
4
Dillon Gee
NYM
52.2
7
5
5
-3
4
Madison Bumgarner*
SFG
72.2
3
1
-0
10
4
Data source: Baseball-Reference.com

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