Johnny Cueto is the NL Run Prevention Leader

Johnny Cueto is the NL leader in runs prevented
(Photo credit: USA Today Sports Images)

Earlier today, I posted the American League run prevention leaders through May.  Now, for the National League. 

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated Runs allowed by fielders. 

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

• FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.

These measured are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing each measure, I then take the average of the four. 

The current National League leaders are listed in Table 1 below.  Reds right hander Johnny Cueto leads the league with 18 Pitching Runs, 17 Adjusted Pitching Runs 22 Base Runs and is third with 12 FIP Runs.  That gives him an average of 17 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher.  

Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals is second with 14 runs prevented.  He is first in FIP Runs (14), second in Pitching Runs (18) and Base Runs (16) and fourth in Adjusted Pitching Runs (12).

Table 1: NL Run Prevention Leaders as of May 31, 2014

Pitcher	Team	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Johnny Cueto	CIN	91.0	18	17	22	12	17
Adam Wainwright	STL	85.1	16	12	16	14	14
Jeff Samardzija	CHC	75.0	13	15	12	11	13
Julio Teheran	ATL	83.2	16	14	13	3	12
Tim Hudson	SFG	70.1	14	12	11	7	11
Jason Hammel	CHC	71.1	10	11	14	8	11
Michael Wacha	STL	73.1	11	7	11	10	9
Zack Greinke	LAD	66.0	10	9	3	6	7
Jose Fernandez	MIA	51.2	4	4	8	11	7
Mike Leake	CIN	77.0	7	5	9	4	6
Jon Niese*	NYM	62.1	7	5	6	3	5
Andrew Cashner	SDP	57.1	5	3	5	6	5
Aaron Harang	ATL	65.2	2	1	4	13	5
Hyun-jin Ryu*	LAD	58.1	3	2	5	9	5
Ian Kennedy	SDP	73.2	5	1	4	8	5
Kyle Lohse	MIL	74.0	5	3	5	5	4
Josh Beckett	LAD	60.2	8	7	5	-2	4
Lance Lynn	STL	69.0	6	2	3	6	4
Dillon Gee	NYM	52.2	7	5	5	-3	4
Madison Bumgarner*	SFG	72.2	3	1	-0	10	4

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com