Saturday, March 15, 2014

2014 Forecast: Tigers Going All the Way This Year


The Tigers have a new manager and a very different line-up in 2014, but expect more of the same.
(Photo credit: Paul Sancya, AP)

With opening day about two weeks away, it's time for my predicted standings for 2014.  The pre-season standings you see at places like Fan Graphs and Baseball Prospectus where almost all the teams are targeted for between 70 to 90 wins are projections rather than predictions.  Everything is regressed to the mean which results in few players having great seasons and few teams winning a lot of games.

I like to use those kinds of projections as a baseline rather than a final forecast.  Realistically, some teams will have more players having great seasons than others and those are the teams that will win 93+ games and probably make the playoffs.  The goal here is to figure out which teams.

My predicted standings are below.  There are no big surprises here.  I actually arrived at the same ten playoff teams as FanGraphs which is coincidental as I used the Baseball Prospectus projections as my base.  If I was going to pick a dark horse, it might be the Minnesota Twins who have a lot of interesting young talent.  I don't think they are ready to move up though. My National League candidate would be the San Diego Padres.

Most importantly, I'm picking the Tigers to easily win the American League Central with 93 wins.  That is the same number of wins as last year.  Don't they have less talent this year though with the trades of Prince Fielder and Doug Fister?  Yes, but their run differential last year suggests that they should have won 98 games.  They won five less games than they should have due to losing a lot of close games which I think was mostly random.  Thus, they should make up for reduced talent by having better situational performance.

Finally, since the playoffs are largely a crapshoot, there is no reason to not pick the Tigers to win the World Series.  So, that is my forecast: Tigers win the World Series.

Predicted MLB Standings 2014

AL East
W
L
PCT
Tampa Bay*
93
69
.574
Boston#
86
76
.531
New York
81
81
.500
Toronto
79
83
.488
Baltimore
75
87
.463




AL Central
W
L
PCT
Detroit*
93
69
.574
Cleveland
81
81
.500
Kansas City
78
84
.481
Minnesota
71
91
.438
Chicago
70
92
.432




AL West
W
L
PCT
Los Angeles*
95
67
.586
Oakland#
87
75
.537
Texas
83
79
.512
Seattle
79
83
.488
Houston
62
100
.383




NL East
W
L
PCT
Washington*
96
66
.593
Atlanta#
89
73
.549
New York
74
88
.457
Philadelphia
73
89
.451
Miami
65
97
.401




NL Central
W
L
PCT
St. Louis*
93
69
.574
Pittsburgh#
86
76
.531
Cincinnati
84
78
.519
Milwaukee
74
88
.457
Chicago
68
94
.420




NL West
W
L
PCT
Los Angeles*
99
63
.611
San Francisco
84
78
.519
Arizona
82
80
.506
San Diego
78
84
.481
Colorado
72
90
.444

*Division winner
#Wild card

Playoffs

Wild Card Games
Oakland over Boston
Pittsburgh over Atlanta

Divisional Series
Oakland over Los Angeles (AL)
Detroit over Tampa Bay
Los Angeles (NL) over Pittsburgh
St. Louis over Washington

Championship Series
Detroit over Oakland
St. Louis over Los Angeles (NL)

World Series
Detroit over St. Louis

1 comment:

  1. Ok I'll play along for fun. I'll pick the Dodgers over the Tigers in 7 games.

    ReplyDelete

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