The Tigers have a new manager and a very different line-up in 2014, but expect more of the same.
(Photo credit: Paul Sancya, AP)
With opening day about two weeks away, it's time for my predicted standings for 2014. The pre-season standings you see at places like Fan Graphs and Baseball Prospectus where almost all the teams are targeted for between 70 to 90 wins are projections rather than predictions. Everything is regressed to the mean which results in few players having great seasons and few teams winning a lot of games.
I like to use those kinds of projections as a baseline rather than a final forecast. Realistically, some teams will have more players having great seasons than others and those are the teams that will win 93+ games and probably make the playoffs. The goal here is to figure out which teams.
My predicted standings are below. There are no big surprises here. I actually arrived at the same ten playoff teams as FanGraphs which is coincidental as I used the Baseball Prospectus projections as my base. If I was going to pick a dark horse, it might be the Minnesota Twins who have a lot of interesting young talent. I don't think they are ready to move up though. My National League candidate would be the San Diego Padres.
Most importantly, I'm picking the Tigers to easily win the American League Central with 93 wins. That is the same number of wins as last year. Don't they have less talent this year though with the trades of Prince Fielder and Doug Fister? Yes, but their run differential last year suggests that they should have won 98 games. They won five less games than they should have due to losing a lot of close games which I think was mostly random. Thus, they should make up for reduced talent by having better situational performance.
Finally, since the playoffs are largely a crapshoot, there is no reason to not pick the Tigers to win the World Series. So, that is my forecast: Tigers win the World Series.
Predicted MLB Standings 2014
AL East
|
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
Tampa Bay*
|
93
|
69
|
.574
|
Boston#
|
86
|
76
|
.531
|
New York
|
81
|
81
|
.500
|
Toronto
|
79
|
83
|
.488
|
Baltimore
|
75
|
87
|
.463
|
AL Central
|
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
Detroit*
|
93
|
69
|
.574
|
Cleveland
|
81
|
81
|
.500
|
Kansas City
|
78
|
84
|
.481
|
Minnesota
|
71
|
91
|
.438
|
Chicago
|
70
|
92
|
.432
|
AL West
|
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
Los Angeles*
|
95
|
67
|
.586
|
Oakland#
|
87
|
75
|
.537
|
Texas
|
83
|
79
|
.512
|
Seattle
|
79
|
83
|
.488
|
Houston
|
62
|
100
|
.383
|
NL East
|
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
Washington*
|
96
|
66
|
.593
|
Atlanta#
|
89
|
73
|
.549
|
New York
|
74
|
88
|
.457
|
Philadelphia
|
73
|
89
|
.451
|
Miami
|
65
|
97
|
.401
|
NL Central
|
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
St. Louis*
|
93
|
69
|
.574
|
Pittsburgh#
|
86
|
76
|
.531
|
Cincinnati
|
84
|
78
|
.519
|
Milwaukee
|
74
|
88
|
.457
|
Chicago
|
68
|
94
|
.420
|
NL West
|
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
Los Angeles*
|
99
|
63
|
.611
|
San Francisco
|
84
|
78
|
.519
|
Arizona
|
82
|
80
|
.506
|
San Diego
|
78
|
84
|
.481
|
Colorado
|
72
|
90
|
.444
|
*Division winner
#Wild card
Playoffs
Wild Card Games
Oakland over Boston
Pittsburgh over Atlanta
Divisional Series
Oakland over Los Angeles (AL)
Detroit over Tampa Bay
Los Angeles (NL) over Pittsburgh
St. Louis over Washington
Championship Series
Detroit over Oakland
St. Louis over Los Angeles (NL)
World Series
Detroit over St. Louis
Ok I'll play along for fun. I'll pick the Dodgers over the Tigers in 7 games.
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