How Many Runs Will the Tigers Pitching Staff Allow in 2014

 The Tigers are counting on left hander Drew Smyly to replace Doug Fister in the rotation in 2014
(Photo credit: Roger Dewitt)

Now that I have projected the Tigers runs scored total for 2014, the next step is to estimate how many runs they will give up.  Run prevention is more difficult to project because pitcher's arms are so fragile and their performance so volatile, but I'll do my best.

The Tigers allowed 624 runs in 2013, the second lowest total in the American League, despite having one of the most porous defensive teams in the league.  Their defense cost them an estimated 64 runs according to the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) statistic. They were able to overcome their fielding deficiencies thanks to excellent pitching as their 3.27 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was almost a half of a run better than any team in the league.

The addition of shortstop Jose Iglesias, subtractions of Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta and move of Miguel Cabrera to first base should improve their infield defense.  They have a strikeout-heavy staff which relies less on defense than most teams, but sinker baller Rick Porcello is one pitcher who could benefit significantly.  On the negative side, they have lost right hander Doug Fister who was traded to the Nationals.  Southpaw Drew Smyly is ready to step into the rotation, but is unlikely to come close to matching Fister's 208 innings. 

Now for the projection.  First, I estimate the innings pitched in 2014 for their five current starters and key bullpen pieces (Table 1).  In order to forecast runs allowed, I used three-year averages on three measures from 2011-2013 all adjusted for projected innings this year:

• Runs Allowed.

• Base Runs - estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on base runners, total bases and home runs.

• Runs Allowed according to FIP estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on strikeouts, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs.

For example, Anibal Sanchez allowed an average of 78 runs per 190 innings (his projected 2014 total) from 2011-2013.  He also had 80 Base Runs and 73 FIP Runs.  The average of the three numbers above (78, 80, 73) is 77.  Since I expect more of the same from Sanchez, I'm estimating 77 runs allowed in 2013.

I project the rest of the pitchers similarly moving them up or down slightly from their three-year averages if I think they are going to get better or worse this year.  In particular, I'm guessing that Porcello will improve a little with better infield defense.  On the other hand, I think Smyly will be somewhat less effective pitching more innings as a starter this year.  Including 120 runs allowed in 200 innings for the "others" (just under 5.00 ERA), the aggregate is 640 runs allowed. 

My estimates of 760 runs scored and 640 allowed yields a differential of 120 or 12 wins above .500.  Thus, my early call for the season is a 93-69, which would match last year's record.  I'll check back again after things get sorted out more in spring training. 

Table 1: Projected Runs Allowed for Tigers Pitching Staff in 2014

		Three-year Average 2011-2013*
Pitcher	Proj IP	RA	BSR	FIP Runs	Comb	Proj RA
Justin Verlander	220	77	77	76	77	77
Max Scherzer	200	86	86	76	83	83
Anibal Sanchez	190	78	80	73	77	77
Rick Porcello	175	95	91	75	87	82
Drew Smyly	140	55	58	50	54	60
Joe Nathan	65	22	21	21	22	24
Bruce Rondon	50	20	24	18	21	21
Joba Chamberlain	50	24	28	26	26	26
Al Alburquerque	40	13	12	13	13	15
Luke Putkonen	40	16	19	17	17	17
Ian Krol	35	15	19	19	18	18
Phil Coke	35	20	19	14	18	20
Other	200	--	--	--		120
Total	1,440					640

*Adjusted for projected innings in 2014