Using RE24 to Account for Situational Hitting

Many fans complain that statistics like on base percentage, slugging average and OPS don't address situational hitting.  For example, if Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera singles with a runner on third base to drive in a run, he gets the same credit as he would for a single with the bases empty.  Some will argue that this is not fair because he contributes more to his team in the former scenario than the latter.  In this post, I will introduce a statistic which accounts for a hitter's performance  in different circumstances.

Traditional fans like to address situational hitting with Runs Batted In, but that is a team dependent statistic.  A player has more or less opportunity to drive in runs depending on who is batting in front of him.  Thus, a player gets acknowledged for driving home runs, but does not get penalized for failing to drive home runs.  So, the RBI count is not an adequate measure of situational hitting.

Other fans point to batting average with runners in scoring position, but that is based on a limited number of plate appearances.  It also doesn't consider the number of outs, the specific base runners (e.g. bases loaded versus second base only) or the type of hit (single, double, triple or home run).  Additionally, it ignores a player's performance when no runners are in scoring position. 

What we want is a statistic which gives a player credit for everything he does including situational hitting.  Batting Runs Batting Runs Above Average by the 24 Base/Out States (RE24) - found at FanGraphs - does just that.  The RE24 statistic is also sometimes referred to as "Value Added".  This metric will give a player credit for his singles, doubles, and all other events, and gives him extra credit for hits occurring with runners on base.  It even gives him points for a scenario which most other metrics ignore - moving a runner over with a ground out.

In the past, I have discussed just plain Batting Runs  (see the bottom section of the linked article).  Batting Runs is an estimate of how many runs a player contributed to his team beyond what an average hitter would have contributed in his place.   RE24 is similar to Batting Runs except that it uses base/out states in the calculation.  An example of a base/out state is "runners at first and third and one out".  There are 24 possible base/out states and RE24 takes all of them into consideration.

In the calculation of Batting Runs, a double with the bases loaded and two outs counts the same (0.770 runs) as a double with the bases empty and no outs.  Conversely, RE24 counts the bases loaded double more than the bases empty double (2.544 versus 0.632) because it does more to increase the expected runs scored in the inning.

RE24 for one at bat is the difference between run expectancy at the beginning and end of a play.  For example, suppose Cabrera bats with a runner on first and one out. In that situation, we would expect 0.556 runs to score by the end of the inning.  Assume that Cabrera then doubles, putting runners on second and third with one out. In that situation, we would expect 1.447 runs to score by the end of the inning. Therefore, Cabrera's double is worth 0.891 runs.

Summing RE24 over all of a batter’s plate appearances yields his season total RE24. For
example, Cabrera has a RE24 of 11.5 this year.  So, by that measure, he has contributed about 12 runs above what an average batter would have been expected to contribute given the same opportunities. This is a little higher than his 7.2 Batting Runs, which means that Cabrera has been especially good in situations with high run expectancy and has contributed more to his team’s runs than Batting Runs indicates.  Indeed, we can estimate that he has contributed an extra 4.3 runs with his situational hitting.


Table 1 below shows us the American League leaders by RE24.  Other columns in the table include Plate Appearances (PA), Batting Runs (BatRuns) and the difference between RE24 and Batting Runs (RE24-BatRuns).  Not surprisingly, the RE24 leader is Rangers slugger Josh Hamilton at 23.7.  Four Tigers appear in the top 20 including Cabrera (7th), Austin Jackson (13th), Andy Dirks (17th) and Prince Fielder (20th).   


Table 1: AL RE24 Leaders

Player	Team	PA	RE24	BatRuns	RE24-BatRuns
Josh Hamilton	Rangers	167	23.7	25.3	-1.6
Adam Dunn	White Sox	177	17.3	13.8	3.5
David Ortiz	Red Sox	170	16.5	16.1	0.4
Josh Willingham	Twins	154	16.1	14.3	1.8
Paul Konerko	White Sox	161	13.8	17.6	-3.8
Edwin Encarnacion	Blue Jays	175	13.7	10.8	2.9
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	176	11.5	7.2	4.3
Carlos Santana	Indians	170	11.2	5.2	6.0
Mark Trumbo	Angels	119	11.1	12.2	-1.1
Adam Jones	Orioles	180	10.7	14.7	-4.0
Kelly Johnson	Blue Jays	177	10.2	6.7	3.5
Asdrubal Cabrera	Indians	157	10.1	10.4	-0.3
Austin Jackson	Tigers	159	9.3	13.7	-4.4
Matt Joyce	Rays	145	7.9	10.1	-2.2
Raul Ibanez	Yankees	118	7.5	6.0	1.5
Kyle Seager	Mariners	143	7.2	3.8	3.4
Andy Dirks	Tigers	103	7.0	9.2	-2.2
Joe Mauer	Twins	167	7.0	3.9	3.1
Billy Butler	Royals	167	6.8	8.2	-1.4
Prince Fielder	Tigers	172	6.6	7.0	-0.4

 Data Source: FanGraphs.com


A complete list of Tigers can be found in Table 2.   A closer look at this table shows that  Jackson leads the team with 13.7 Batting Runs.  However, he has not done as well in high leverage opportunities as he has in normal at bats.  The -4.4 in the final column shows that he has contributed an estimated -4.4 runs less than his Batting Runs indicate.  Cabrera, on the other other hand, has done better in high leverage at bats and thus moves ahead of Jackson when we account for that with RE24.     


Table 2: Tigers By RE24

Player	PA	RE24	BatRuns	RE24-BatRuns
Miguel Cabrera	176	11.5	7.2	4.3
Austin Jackson	159	9.3	13.7	-4.4
Andy Dirks	103	7.0	9.2	-2.2
Prince Fielder	172	6.6	7.0	-0.4
Jhonny Peralta	139	-0.4	-0.2	-0.2
Gerald Laird	36	-1.2	0.3	-1.5
Delmon Young	134	-2.4	-2.5	0.1
Don Kelly	58	-3.2	-3.4	0.2
Ramon Santiago	67	-3.9	-4.4	0.5
Alex Avila	125	-6.2	-1.4	-4.8
Brennan Boesch	163	-6.5	-4.0	-2.5
Ryan Raburn	120	-11.2	-10.6	-0.6

Data Source: FanGraphs.com