Sunday, July 26, 2009

Tigers have been Clutch in 2009

For the past week, I've been planning to write about how well the Tigers have done in the clutch this year. However, given their poor performance producing with runners on base in close games versus the Yankees and Mariners, I figured such a post would not be received very well. After the last couple of days, I think it's now safe to talk about the "clutchness" of the 2009 Tigers.

First, understand that a player's performance would not be considered clutch just because he hit well in high impact situations. A clutch performer is one who hit better in clutch at bats than he did in ordinary at bats. For example, a hitter who did great in both clutch and non-clutch scenarios would not be considered a clutch performer. On the other hand, a player who did great in the clutch but just average otherwise would be a clutch hitter. With that in mind, a new statistic at FanGraphs (simply called "Clutch") attempts to measure how much better a player does in clutch situations than he does in a typical at bat.

The clutch statistic is based on Win Probability Added (WPA), another FanGraphs statistic. Win Probability Added measures a players win contribution by calculating how much each at bat affected the probability of winning a game. Unlike stats such as OPS which do not consider context, WPA gives a player more credit for at bats which have a greater affect on the games potential outcome. For example, a player would get more credit for a walk off homer than he would for a solo homer when his team is up by 10 runs in the ninth inning. Ultimately, the players which contributed the most to their team's wins will have the highest WPAs.

The clutch statistic only considers opportunities in the highest leverage situations. That is, the plate appearances which have the greatest potential impact on the outcomes of games. If the Tigers are down 2-1 with two outs and two on in the ninth, that would be a high leverage situation and would be included in the clutch statistic. If they are up by 8 runs with the bases empty in the 8th inning, that would be a low leverage at bat and would not be included in the clutch statistic.

The clutch statistic then measures a player's WPA in these high leverage at bats compared to all other at bats. As a team, the Tigers WPA in clutch scenarios is 2.82 higher than it is in other contexts. That is second in the league to the Angels whose WPA is better in the clutch by 3.18. Simply put, this means that the Tigers have been the second best clutch hitting team in the American League this year.

Individually, the most clutch Tiger so far this year has been Curtis Granderson whose 1.40 clutch number is second best in the league to Mariners outfielder Franklin Gutierrez (1.71). Other clutch Tigers include:

Ryan Raburn 0.95
Placido Polanco 0.76
Carlos Guillen 0.67
Brandon Inge 0.67

The worst Tigers in the clutch have been:

Miguel Cabrera -1.36
Marcus Thames -0.98

One should keep in mind that, as with all situational statistics, the sample sizes which contribute to this measure are rather small for many players and should not be used for projecting clutch performance into the future. All we can say is that, so far this year, the Tigers have hit better in clutch scenarios than they have in other at bats.

7 comments:

  1. Nice article

    funny how preception can be wrong in so many ways

    I thought Miguel had not been clutch of late, but over all was okay, on the other hand I thought Thames WAS clutch.


    http://s169.photobucket.com/albums/u202/librarymonkey27/misc7/heyho.gif
    Thanks
    Titus

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Library Monkey. I was a little surprised to see Granderson so high on the list.

    Lee

    ReplyDelete
  3. Great work as always, Lee.

    And don't let Mike Valenti or Pat Caputo find out about Cabrera's clutch stat :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. my memory is mainly short term, so Granderson's rbi and Thames broken bat hit the other night makes them clutch

    though a small sample size

    really liked that probability of win web site you posted --- shows up via twitter

    ReplyDelete
  5. I agree about the perception. I would have put Everett on the list. He seems to be pretty clutch (and not much else). It may also be that my idea of "clutch" is different than the professionals.
    Very cool stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  6. More Hardball is featuring another MLB rookie you need to know, Fu-Te Ni.

    Link- http://morehardball.blogspot.com/2009/07/name-to-know-fu-te-ni.html

    If you like the story, we'd appreciate the link and will return the favor. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  7. I never thought I would hear Ryan Raburn and clutch in the same sentence. If only he could learn to play clutch defense.

    Nice work Lee.

    ReplyDelete

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