Sunday, December 10, 2006

Tigers Relievers Not as Good as Their ERAs

In my previous post, I did a FIP analysis of Tiger starting pitchers in 2006. Today, I’ll look at the relievers. There were 83 primary relievers (more relief appearances than starts) with 40 or more innings pitched in 2005. Table 1 below lists Detroit Tiger relievers in 2006. Table 2 lists all 83 qualifiers in the league.


In both tables, the key variables are actual ERA, FIP ERA, FIP-Actual and LOB%. All are defined in the previous article linked above. Since relievers pitch fewer innings than starters, all of these statistics are less reliable for relievers and should be interpreted with a little more caution.


Like the starters, most of the Tiger relievers posted FIP ERAs which were significantly worse than their actual ERAs. Again, this is an indication of strong fielding support and perhaps some luck. The only exception was Todd Jones whose FIP ERA (3.72) was slightly below his actual ERA (3.94).


Both Joel Zumaya (3.39 versus 1.94) and Jamie Walker (4.40 versus 2.81) had FIP ERAs which were about a run and a half higher than their actual ERAs. They both had failrly high DERs along and very high LOB% (.87 for Zumaya and .91 for Walker). You would expect a strikeout pitcher like Zoom to have a high LOB% and Walker’s LOB% is not especially relevant since he comes in to face a batter or two without finishing the inning. Of course, we don’t have to worry much about Walker anymore since he is now an Oriole.


Other Tiger relievers were less extreme but still had FIP ERAs exceeding their actual ERAs. These included Fernando Rodney (3.97 versus 3.52), Wil Ledezma (4.20 versus 3.58) and Jason Grilli (4.74 versus 4.21). Since FIP ERA is a better predictor of future performance than actual ERA, this may not be a good sign for next year. Keep in mind though that the sample sizes for relievers are small.



Table 1: FIP ERA Ranks for Tiger Relievers in 2006


FIP ERA Rank

Name

IP

ERA

FIP ERA

DER

FIP-Actual

LOB %

20

Zumaya

83.3

1.94

3.39

.754

1.45

.87

27

Jones

64.0

3.94

3.72

.708

-0.22

.68

34

Rodney

71.7

3.52

3.97

.764

0.45

.67

41

Ledezma

60.3

3.58

4.20

.718

0.62

.73

47

Walker

48.0

2.81

4.40

.727

1.58

.91

58

Grilli

62.0

4.21

4.74

.729

0.53

.73



Table 2: FIP ERA Ranks for AL Relievers in 2006

FIP ERA Rank

Name

Team

IP

ERA

FIP ERA

DER

FIP-Actual

LOB %

1

Nathan

MIN

68.3

1.58

1.76

.762

0.18

.85

2

Putz

SEA

78.3

2.30

1.78

.694

-0.52

.79

3

Papelbon

BOS

68.3

0.92

2.22

.776

1.30

.92

4

Ryan

TOR

72.3

1.37

2.26

.758

0.89

.87

5

Street

OAK

70.7

3.31

2.66

.706

-0.65

.70

6

Rivera

NYA

75.0

1.80

2.76

.735

0.96

.84

7

Rodriguez

LAA

73.0

1.73

2.80

.718

1.07

.90

8

Rincon

MIN

74.3

2.91

2.84

.665

-0.07

.73

9

Duchschere

OAK

55.7

2.91

2.86

.698

-0.05

.78

10

Otsuka

TEX

59.7

2.11

2.90

.708

0.79

.79

11

Davis

CLE

55.3

3.74

2.93

.655

-0.81

.68

12

Reyes

MIN

50.7

0.89

2.99

.748

2.10

.92

13

Delcarmen

BOS

53.3

5.06

3.03

.627

-2.03

.65

14

Calero

OAK

58.0

3.41

3.10

.685

-0.31

.76

15

Sherrill

SEA

40.0

4.28

3.20

.714

-1.09

.67

16

Jenks

CHA

69.7

4.00

3.24

.665

-0.76

.73

17

Shields

LAA

87.7

2.87

3.36

.735

0.49

.78

18

Cordero

TEX

48.7

4.81

3.37

.667

-1.44

.67

19

Benoit

TEX

79.7

4.86

3.38

.708

-1.48

.59

20

Zumaya

DET

83.3

1.94

3.39

.754

1.45

.87

21

Crain

MIN

76.7

3.52

3.43

.695

-0.09

.75

22

Soriano

SEA

60.0

2.25

3.45

.742

1.20

.89

23

League

TOR

42.7

2.53

3.46

.760

0.93

.69

24

Speier

TOR

51.3

2.98

3.62

.700

0.64

.82

25

Dessens

KC

54.0

4.50

3.62

.672

-0.88

.64

26

Britton

BAL

53.7

3.35

3.66

.736

0.31

.71

27

Jones

DET

64.0

3.94

3.72

.708

-0.22

.68

28

Betancourt

CLE

56.7

3.81

3.76

.727

-0.05

.71

29

Feldman

TEX

41.3

3.92

3.80

.701

-0.12

.73

30

Thornton

CHA

54.0

3.33

3.83

.729

0.50

.79

31

Farnsworth

NYA

66.0

4.36

3.85

.695

-0.51

.71

32

Gregg

LAA

78.3

4.14

3.92

.671

-0.22

.72

33

Carrasco

LAA

100.3

3.41

3.94

.726

0.53

.75

34

Rodney

DET

71.7

3.52

3.97

.764

0.45

.67

35

Hawkins

BAL

60.3

4.48

3.98

.679

-0.50

.70

36

Proctor

NYA

102.3

3.52

4.02

.735

0.50

.77

37

Lugo

TB

85.0

3.81

4.06

.736

0.25

.70

38

Bauer

TEX

71.0

3.55

4.07

.705

0.52

.74

39

Camp

TB

75.0

4.68

4.18

.650

-0.50

.71

40

Peralta

KC

73.7

4.40

4.18

.706

-0.22

.71

41

Ledezma

DET

60.3

3.58

4.20

.718

0.62

.73

42

Gobble

KC

84.0

5.14

4.26

.665

-0.88

.68

43

Frasor

TOR

50.0

4.32

4.33

.715

0.01

.77

44

Nelson

KC

44.7

4.43

4.37

.731

-0.06

.73

45

Downs

TOR

77.0

4.09

4.37

.716

0.28

.73

46

Mahay

TEX

57.0

3.95

4.38

.697

0.43

.72

47

Walker

DET

48.0

2.81

4.40

.727

1.58

.91

48

Timlin

BOS

64.0

4.36

4.50

.684

0.14

.73

49

Carmona

CLE

74.7

5.42

4.53

.664

-0.89

.71

50

Harper

TB

42.0

4.93

4.53

.608

-0.40

.73

51

Romero

LAA

48.3

6.70

4.53

.669

-2.17

.56

52

Donnelly

LAA

64.0

3.94

4.55

.730

0.61

.74

53

Seanez

BOS

46.7

4.82

4.55

.667

-0.27

.72

54

Foulke

BOS

49.7

4.35

4.60

.715

0.25

.76

55

Wilson

TEX

44.3

4.06

4.60

.729

0.54

.75

56

Lohse

MIN

63.7

7.07

4.64

.657

-2.43

.61

57

Gaudin

OAK

64.0

3.09

4.72

.753

1.63

.78

58

Grilli

DET

62.0

4.21

4.74

.729

0.53

.73

59

Tavarez

BOS

98.7

4.47

4.79

.683

0.32

.73

60

Guerrier

MIN

69.7

3.36

4.79

.704

1.43

.81

61

Mateo

SEA

53.7

4.19

4.80

.687

0.61

.76

62

Tallet

TOR

54.3

3.81

4.82

.739

1.01

.76

63

Villone

NYA

80.3

5.04

4.84

.712

-0.20

.70

64

Ray

BAL

66.0

2.73

4.92

.803

2.19

.86

65

Harville

TB

41.0

5.93

5.00

.693

-0.93

.66

66

Woods

SEA

105.0

4.20

5.01

.697

0.81

.78

67

Wellemeyer

KC

57.0

3.63

5.06

.743

1.43

.78

68

Cabrera

CLE

60.7

5.19

5.08

.707

-0.11

.72

69

Halsey

OAK

94.3

4.67

5.13

.693

0.46

.74

70

Williams

BAL

57.0

4.74

5.25

.672

0.51

.71

71

Eyre

MIN

59.3

5.31

5.26

.685

-0.05

.73

72

Sisco

KC

58.3

7.10

5.33

.672

-1.77

.63

73

McCarthy

CHA

84.7

4.68

5.42

.745

0.74

.77

74

Wood

KC

64.7

5.71

5.45

.681

-0.26

.64

75

Meadows

TB

69.7

5.17

5.52

.694

0.35

.73

76

Burgos

KC

73.3

5.52

5.66

.673

0.14

.74

77

Saarloos

OAK

121.3

4.75

5.76

.691

1.01

.76

78

McClung

TB

103.0

6.29

5.87

.693

-0.42

.67

79

Cotts

CHA

54.0

5.17

5.90

.692

0.73

.78

80

Affeldt

KC

70.0

5.91

5.94

.742

0.03

.62

81

Chen

BAL

98.7

6.93

6.60

.659

-0.33

.69

82

Rleal

BAL

46.7

4.44

6.72

.748

2.28

.81

83

Ortiz

BAL

40.3

8.48

8.31

.667

-0.17

.69

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