Tigers Relievers Not as Good as Their ERAs

In my previous post, I did a FIP analysis of Tiger starting pitchers in 2006. Today, I’ll look at the relievers. There were 83 primary relievers (more relief appearances than starts) with 40 or more innings pitched in 2005. Table 1 below lists Detroit Tiger relievers in 2006. Table 2 lists all 83 qualifiers in the league.

In both tables, the key variables are actual ERA, FIP ERA, FIP-Actual and LOB%. All are defined in the previous article linked above. Since relievers pitch fewer innings than starters, all of these statistics are less reliable for relievers and should be interpreted with a little more caution.

Like the starters, most of the Tiger relievers posted FIP ERAs which were significantly worse than their actual ERAs. Again, this is an indication of strong fielding support and perhaps some luck. The only exception was Todd Jones whose FIP ERA (3.72) was slightly below his actual ERA (3.94).

Both Joel Zumaya (3.39 versus 1.94) and Jamie Walker (4.40 versus 2.81) had FIP ERAs which were about a run and a half higher than their actual ERAs. They both had failrly high DERs along and very high LOB% (.87 for Zumaya and .91 for Walker). You would expect a strikeout pitcher like Zoom to have a high LOB% and Walker’s LOB% is not especially relevant since he comes in to face a batter or two without finishing the inning. Of course, we don’t have to worry much about Walker anymore since he is now an Oriole.

Other Tiger relievers were less extreme but still had FIP ERAs exceeding their actual ERAs. These included Fernando Rodney (3.97 versus 3.52), Wil Ledezma (4.20 versus 3.58) and Jason Grilli (4.74 versus 4.21). Since FIP ERA is a better predictor of future performance than actual ERA, this may not be a good sign for next year. Keep in mind though that the sample sizes for relievers are small.

Table 1: FIP ERA Ranks for Tiger Relievers in 2006

FIP ERA Rank	Name	IP	ERA	FIP ERA	DER	FIP-Actual	LOB %
20	Zumaya	83.3	1.94	3.39	.754	1.45	.87
27	Jones	64.0	3.94	3.72	.708	-0.22	.68
34	Rodney	71.7	3.52	3.97	.764	0.45	.67
41	Ledezma	60.3	3.58	4.20	.718	0.62	.73
47	Walker	48.0	2.81	4.40	.727	1.58	.91
58	Grilli	62.0	4.21	4.74	.729	0.53	.73

Table 2: FIP ERA Ranks for AL Relievers in 2006

FIP ERA Rank	Name	Team	IP	ERA	FIP ERA	DER	FIP-Actual	LOB %
1	Nathan	MIN	68.3	1.58	1.76	.762	0.18	.85
2	Putz	SEA	78.3	2.30	1.78	.694	-0.52	.79
3	Papelbon	BOS	68.3	0.92	2.22	.776	1.30	.92
4	Ryan	TOR	72.3	1.37	2.26	.758	0.89	.87
5	Street	OAK	70.7	3.31	2.66	.706	-0.65	.70
6	Rivera	NYA	75.0	1.80	2.76	.735	0.96	.84
7	Rodriguez	LAA	73.0	1.73	2.80	.718	1.07	.90
8	Rincon	MIN	74.3	2.91	2.84	.665	-0.07	.73
9	Duchschere	OAK	55.7	2.91	2.86	.698	-0.05	.78
10	Otsuka	TEX	59.7	2.11	2.90	.708	0.79	.79
11	Davis	CLE	55.3	3.74	2.93	.655	-0.81	.68
12	Reyes	MIN	50.7	0.89	2.99	.748	2.10	.92
13	Delcarmen	BOS	53.3	5.06	3.03	.627	-2.03	.65
14	Calero	OAK	58.0	3.41	3.10	.685	-0.31	.76
15	Sherrill	SEA	40.0	4.28	3.20	.714	-1.09	.67
16	Jenks	CHA	69.7	4.00	3.24	.665	-0.76	.73
17	Shields	LAA	87.7	2.87	3.36	.735	0.49	.78
18	Cordero	TEX	48.7	4.81	3.37	.667	-1.44	.67
19	Benoit	TEX	79.7	4.86	3.38	.708	-1.48	.59
20	Zumaya	DET	83.3	1.94	3.39	.754	1.45	.87
21	Crain	MIN	76.7	3.52	3.43	.695	-0.09	.75
22	Soriano	SEA	60.0	2.25	3.45	.742	1.20	.89
23	League	TOR	42.7	2.53	3.46	.760	0.93	.69
24	Speier	TOR	51.3	2.98	3.62	.700	0.64	.82
25	Dessens	KC	54.0	4.50	3.62	.672	-0.88	.64
26	Britton	BAL	53.7	3.35	3.66	.736	0.31	.71
27	Jones	DET	64.0	3.94	3.72	.708	-0.22	.68
28	Betancourt	CLE	56.7	3.81	3.76	.727	-0.05	.71
29	Feldman	TEX	41.3	3.92	3.80	.701	-0.12	.73
30	Thornton	CHA	54.0	3.33	3.83	.729	0.50	.79
31	Farnsworth	NYA	66.0	4.36	3.85	.695	-0.51	.71
32	Gregg	LAA	78.3	4.14	3.92	.671	-0.22	.72
33	Carrasco	LAA	100.3	3.41	3.94	.726	0.53	.75
34	Rodney	DET	71.7	3.52	3.97	.764	0.45	.67
35	Hawkins	BAL	60.3	4.48	3.98	.679	-0.50	.70
36	Proctor	NYA	102.3	3.52	4.02	.735	0.50	.77
37	Lugo	TB	85.0	3.81	4.06	.736	0.25	.70
38	Bauer	TEX	71.0	3.55	4.07	.705	0.52	.74
39	Camp	TB	75.0	4.68	4.18	.650	-0.50	.71
40	Peralta	KC	73.7	4.40	4.18	.706	-0.22	.71
41	Ledezma	DET	60.3	3.58	4.20	.718	0.62	.73
42	Gobble	KC	84.0	5.14	4.26	.665	-0.88	.68
43	Frasor	TOR	50.0	4.32	4.33	.715	0.01	.77
44	Nelson	KC	44.7	4.43	4.37	.731	-0.06	.73
45	Downs	TOR	77.0	4.09	4.37	.716	0.28	.73
46	Mahay	TEX	57.0	3.95	4.38	.697	0.43	.72
47	Walker	DET	48.0	2.81	4.40	.727	1.58	.91
48	Timlin	BOS	64.0	4.36	4.50	.684	0.14	.73
49	Carmona	CLE	74.7	5.42	4.53	.664	-0.89	.71
50	Harper	TB	42.0	4.93	4.53	.608	-0.40	.73
51	Romero	LAA	48.3	6.70	4.53	.669	-2.17	.56
52	Donnelly	LAA	64.0	3.94	4.55	.730	0.61	.74
53	Seanez	BOS	46.7	4.82	4.55	.667	-0.27	.72
54	Foulke	BOS	49.7	4.35	4.60	.715	0.25	.76
55	Wilson	TEX	44.3	4.06	4.60	.729	0.54	.75
56	Lohse	MIN	63.7	7.07	4.64	.657	-2.43	.61
57	Gaudin	OAK	64.0	3.09	4.72	.753	1.63	.78
58	Grilli	DET	62.0	4.21	4.74	.729	0.53	.73
59	Tavarez	BOS	98.7	4.47	4.79	.683	0.32	.73
60	Guerrier	MIN	69.7	3.36	4.79	.704	1.43	.81
61	Mateo	SEA	53.7	4.19	4.80	.687	0.61	.76
62	Tallet	TOR	54.3	3.81	4.82	.739	1.01	.76
63	Villone	NYA	80.3	5.04	4.84	.712	-0.20	.70
64	Ray	BAL	66.0	2.73	4.92	.803	2.19	.86
65	Harville	TB	41.0	5.93	5.00	.693	-0.93	.66
66	Woods	SEA	105.0	4.20	5.01	.697	0.81	.78
67	Wellemeyer	KC	57.0	3.63	5.06	.743	1.43	.78
68	Cabrera	CLE	60.7	5.19	5.08	.707	-0.11	.72
69	Halsey	OAK	94.3	4.67	5.13	.693	0.46	.74
70	Williams	BAL	57.0	4.74	5.25	.672	0.51	.71
71	Eyre	MIN	59.3	5.31	5.26	.685	-0.05	.73
72	Sisco	KC	58.3	7.10	5.33	.672	-1.77	.63
73	McCarthy	CHA	84.7	4.68	5.42	.745	0.74	.77
74	Wood	KC	64.7	5.71	5.45	.681	-0.26	.64
75	Meadows	TB	69.7	5.17	5.52	.694	0.35	.73
76	Burgos	KC	73.3	5.52	5.66	.673	0.14	.74
77	Saarloos	OAK	121.3	4.75	5.76	.691	1.01	.76
78	McClung	TB	103.0	6.29	5.87	.693	-0.42	.67
79	Cotts	CHA	54.0	5.17	5.90	.692	0.73	.78
80	Affeldt	KC	70.0	5.91	5.94	.742	0.03	.62
81	Chen	BAL	98.7	6.93	6.60	.659	-0.33	.69
82	Rleal	BAL	46.7	4.44	6.72	.748	2.28	.81
83	Ortiz	BAL	40.3	8.48	8.31	.667	-0.17	.69