Wednesday, December 20, 2006

PrOPS to the Tigers

In yesterday’s post, I presented some data on batted ball types for Tiger batters. The lists of leaders and trailers are somewhat useful for describing players but the batted ball data can also be used for evaluation and projection. There is a statistic called PrOPS (predicted OPS) developed by J.C. Bradbury at The Hardball Times which estimates what a batter’s OPS “should have been” based on strikeouts, walks, home runs and batted ball types. Bradbury discussed Props in Introducing PrOPS, an article he wrote last year.


PrOPS helps to identify which players may have been lucky or unlucky in a given year and hints at which ones may improve or regress in the following year. The OPS and PrOPS for Tigers batter in 2006 are given in Table 1 below. A player with an OPS exceeding his PrOPS may have been lucky (e.g.. his bloopers dropped in front of fielders or his grounders found holes). This player might be expected to have a lower OPS in 2007. A player with an OPS falling below his PrOPS may have been unlucky (e.g. their line drives were hit right at opposing fielders). This batter might be expected to have a higher OPS in 2007.


The table shows us the following:


  • Marcus Thames had the highest PrOPS (.894) on the team in 2006.

  • Carlos Guillen had an OPS (.920) which was 82 points higher than his PrOPS (.838). This indicates that we might not expect a .920 OPS next year. He may have been a little lucky in 2006 but I don’t think he was 82 OPS points lucky so I wouldn’t expect that much of a drop.

  • Sean Casey’s OPS (.650) was 136 points lower than his PrOPS (.785). This makes sense. Casey did not hit well for the Tigers but I don’t think he was as bad his .650 OPS indicated. I think we will see some improvement from him next year.

  • The next biggest differential was for Omar Infante whose OPS (.740) exceeded his PrOPS (.687) by 53 points. So, if he hits the same next year, his OPS might be a little lower.

Table 1 – OPS and PrOPS for Detroit Tigers Batters in 2006


Player

PA

OPS

PrOPS

OPS-PrOPS

Thames

390

0.882

0.894

-0.012

Guillen

622

0.920

0.838

0.082

Ordonez

646

0.827

0.808

0.019

Monroe

585

0.783

0.806

-0.022

Casey

196

0.650

0.785

-0.136

Inge

601

0.776

0.784

-0.008

Shelton

412

0.806

0.782

0.024

Granderson

679

0.773

0.767

0.005

Rodriguez

580

0.769

0.743

0.025

Polanco

495

0.693

0.727

-0.034

Infante

245

0.740

0.687

0.053

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