Detroit Tigers Runs Created Analysis

How many runs does a player contribute to his team’s offense? One way to answer this question is with the statistic “runs created”. Runs created (RC) is not the most popular sabermetric measure today but it was one of the statistics which made Bill James (the God father of modern sabermetrics) famous. I discussed the calculation of the runs formula in last week’s article on offensive efficiency. The same version of the formula will be used for players except that it will be adjusted for ballpark.

Does RC work? As shown last week, if you add up the individual RC for players on a team, it generally comes pretty close to the total runs scored for that team. This is an indication that it is doing a fairly good job of measuring what it is intended to measure: how much each player contributes to his team runs scored total.

Another statistic is runs created per game or runs created per 27 outs (RC/G). Theoretically, this statistics tells you how many runs your team would score per game if you had the same player bat in all line-up positions. For example, Brandon Inge had an RC/G of 5.0 so you would theoretically expect a team of 9 Brandon Inges to score 5.0 runs per game. That may not be a very practical or realistic use of the statistic. However, it’s a good statistic for comparing the relative offensive contribution of different players.

A player like Inge who played a lot of games will have more runs created than a player like Marcus Thames who played only semi-regularly. On the other hand, Thames hit better when he did play so he’ll have more runs created per game. Both stats are useful depending on the question being asked.

As mentioned above, I adjusted RC and RC/G for the impact of the hitter’s home park. A hitter playing his home games in a hitter friendly park like Ameriquest Field in Texas will have his runs created adjusted downward while a hitter playing in a pitcher friendly park like Comerica Park in Detroit will have his runs created adjusted upward. Ballpark factors are very complex but if you want a detailed explanation, I’ll point you toward US Patriot.

Table1 below ranks the Tigers in RC among American League batters.

Table 1: Runs Created in 2006

Player	PA	RC	Lge Rank
Guillen	622	111	15
Ordonez	646	97	29
Granderson	679	93	33
Inge	601	79	49
Monroe	585	77	54
Rodriguez	580	77	57
Thames	390	66	78
Shelton	412	58	87
Polanco	495	52	97
Infante	245	30	144
Young	184	20	165
Wilson	168	20	175
Casey	196	19	180
Gomez	111	14	190
Clevlen	42	8	208
Stairs	44	6	228
Santiago	86	5	233
Perez	70	2	257
Hooper	5	0	297
Hannahan	10	0	303
Rabelo	1	0	304

The table shows that Carlos Guillen contributed more runs (111) to the offense than any other player on the team. He was followed by Magglio Ordonez (97), Curtis Granderson (93), Brandon Inge (79), Craig Monroe (77) and Ivan Rodriguez (77). The final column on the table shows where players ranked within the American League. After having no players finish in the top 30 last year, they had two this year - Guillen (15^th) and Ordonez (29^th). Having those two players healthy this year was a big boost for their offense.

Table 2 ranks the Tigers among 126 American League players with 300 or more plate appearances in runs created per game.

Table 2: Runs Created Per Game in 2006

Player	PA	R/G	Lge Rank
Guillen	622	7.5	12
Clevlen	42	7.5	***
Thames	390	6.9	18
Ordonez	646	6.0	41
Shelton	412	5.5	55
Granderson	679	5.4	59
Rodriguez	580	5.1	80
Inge	601	5.0	82
Monroe	585	4.9	85
Gomez	111	4.9	***
Infante	245	4.7	***
Stairs	44	4.7	***
Wilson	168	4.2	***
Young	184	4.1	***
Polanco	495	4.0	113
Casey	196	3.5	***
Santiago	86	2.0	***
Perez	70	1.2	***
Hooper	5	0.3	***
Hannahan	10	0.0	***
Rabelo	1	0.0	***

This table looks a little different because Marcus Thames and Chris Shelton produced more when they did play than some of the players with more plate appearances. Carlos Guillen tops the list at 7.5 runs created per game. Would a team of 9 Guillens score 7.5 runs per game? If the 9 Guillens performed exactly the same as the one Guillen did, then the answer would be yes. That’s a fun way to interpret the stat but it’s impossible to know what would really happen with such a line-up. Whatever way you look at it, Guillen had a great season. Among players with at least 300 PA, Guillen was followed by Thames (6.9), Ordonez (6.0), Shelton (5.5) and Granderson (5.4).

One player who is going to need to improve next year is Placido Polanco (4.0). He finished 113^th among 126 players with 300 or more PA. Then there’s Sean Casey. He had only 196 AL plate appearances but his 3.5 runs created per game was abysmal. If he comes back next year, he’ll need to do a lot better than that.