Red Sox Outplay Tigers

Sun sets on Tigers Season

Every year when the Tigers get eliminated, I write a post congratulating the winner.  It's never been more difficult to do that than this year.  As a lifetime Tigers fan and Massachusetts resident, I was really looking forward to this one.  So, it was a really tough series, probably the most frustrating in 45 years as a fan.  It was difficult watching great pitching performances being wasted, hitters not coming through and just overall bad play by the Tigers.  And Prince Fielder...OK I'll stop there because we've got all winter to moan about that.

I'm not going to be a drama queen about this.  It was a good season overall for the Tigers - 93 wins, a third straight division title and an ALDS victory. I would have liked to see what they could have done in the ALCS with a healthy Cabrera, but injuries happen.  All of the Tigers weaknesses were exposed - weak bullpen, poor defense and one of the worst base running teams in the history of baseball. They also couldn't get any big hits.

I give the Red Sox credit for taking advantage of the Tigers mistakes and making their few hits count really big.  They simply outplayed the Tigers in every phase of the game not involving starting pitching.  Congratulations on your pennant Red Sox fans.

Tigers Playoff Tickets Still a Relative Bargain

Tigers starters have pitched lights out this postseason only allowing two runs in their starts but thanks to some clutch hitting from the Red Sox--mainly David Ortiz and Mike Napoli--they find themselves down 2-1 with both losses coming by just one run. While the games between Boston and Detroit have been very close and competitive, the average ticket prices for each team's home games couldn’t be more different.

When the MLB playoffs began, Detroit Tigers tickets for the ALCS were averaging $209.71 on the secondary market, the lowest LCS average ticket price over the last three MLB seasons. With tickets still available on the primary market for both games in Detroit, prices on the secondary market have fallen to $147.58, a drop of 29.63%. The secondary market get-in prices for games 4 and 5 are $59 and $49 respectively for Mezzanine seats. On the primary market, you can still get $50 standing room only seats for both games. Given the fact that the Tigers still have tickets, make sure you check out both the secondary and primary market if you're thinking about an October visit to Comerica.

This is in stark contrast to Red Sox tickets, which are currently averaging $621.54 per seat, and are the 2nd most expensive LCS tickets in the last three seasons, behind only the 2012 San Francisco Giants whose 2012 NLCS tickets averaged $687.15. 

Looking ahead to another potential trip to the Fall Classic, Tigers World Series tickets are averaging $1,119.10 per seat.

Walk-off Wins and Momentum

After Sunday night's improbable Red Sox comeback, many Red Sox and Tigers fans claimed that the momentum was now on the Red Sox side.  It's certainly true that it's better for the Red Sox to be tied 1-1 in the series than down 2-0, but does the walk-off win make them more likely to win game three on Tuesday?

It is widely believed that a walk-off win or sudden victory creates a boost for a team that carries over to the next game more often than not. I wanted to see if this was true, so I went to the retrosheet database and found all walk-off wins between 1995 and 2012. There were 3,769 of these sudden victories during the period which comes out to about seven per team for a season. My goal was to see if walk off winners had a tendency win the next game after their walk offs.

Twenty-eight walk offs fell out of the sample because they occurred in the final game of the season and thus were not followed by another regular season game. That gave me 3,741 games with which to work. I discovered that teams won 52.6% of the games immediately following walk off wins. That's more than 50% so at first glance it seems that there is a bit of a tendency for teams to win games following walk offs.

Before jumping to conclusions though, there are a couple of important factors to consider. First, walk off wins only happen at home so chances are (85% of the time to be exact) that the next game would also be at home. Since teams win 53.9% of their home games, you would expect them to have a good winning percentage in games after walk offs even without a carryover effect. Also, teams with good winning percentages tend to have more walk off wins. For both of these reasons, one would expect a win the next game after a walk off more than 50% of the time even if walk-off wins had no influence on future games.

I calculated the expected winning percentage in games after sudden victories as follows: For each walk off, I calculated the winning percentage of the specific team for that year and site. For example, the 2012 Tigers won 61.7% of their home games. Thus, they would have a probability of .617 of winning a home game the day after a walk off assuming no carryover effect. I did this for each of the 3,741 walk offs and then calculated the average probability to be .528. This means, that assuming no carryover effect, we would expect 52.8% of the games after walk offs to have resulted in wins.

Since the expected winning percentage (52.8%) for games after walk offs was almost exactly the same as the actual winning percentage (52.6%), I can conclude that, in general, a walk-off win has no effect over the result of the following game. As cautious as I am about accepting intangibles, this result is still surprising to me. I was not expecting a dramatic effect but I thought that sudden victories would have a small influence over ensuing games.

Another question is whether walk-off losses create negative momentum.  This is, of course, relevant to the Tigers-Red Sox scenario since the walk-off winner is facing a a walk-off loser in Game three .

As with walk off wins, there are there are two factors to consider. First, walk-off losses happen on the road and are followed by road games 86% of the time. Since teams win just 46.1% of their road games, you would expect them to have a low winning percentage in games after sudden losses even without a carryover effect. Also, teams with low winning percentages tend to have more walk off losses. For both of these reasons, one would expect a win in the next game after a walk off loss less than 50% of the time even if walk off losses had no influence.

The expected winning percentage in games after sudden losses is calculated the same way as for walk-off wins.  It turns that a team would be expected to win 45.7% of the time after a walk-off loss if there is no carryover effect.  Since, this is almost the same as he actual winning percentage of 46.4%, I can conclude that,  in general, a walk off loss has no affect on the result of the following game.

Based on these analyses, the Tigers heart-breaking loss should not affect their performance in game three any more than any other result. Tigers manager Jim Leyland's theory is that "Momentum is only as good as the next game's starting pitcher".  If that's the case, then the Tigers should be in a favorable position with red hot Justin Verlander facing Red Sox right hander John Lackey on Tuesday.

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by
Retrosheet.  Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org"

Tigers Blank Red Sox 1-0 in Opener, Tie K Record

It's late and I'm too emotionally drained to really give this game it's due.  However, this was the first post-season game ever between two great historical franchises and it it turned out to be a classic.  So, I need to comment.

This game was so emotionally charged that I kept forgetting the Tigers had a no hitter going until Red Sox outfielder Daniel Nava singled off closer Joaquin Benoit with one out in the ninth.  Starter Anibal Sanchez had a no hit shutout with 12 strikeouts for six innings, but it was absolutely the right decision to take him out of the game.  His pitch count was up to 116 and he had worked a stressful sixth loading the bases on walks before striking out Red Sox shortstop Stephen Drew to end it.  I was actually expecting him to be removed after the third base on balls. 

Sanchez combined with four relievers - Al Alburquerque, Jose Veras, Drew Smiley and Benoit for 17 strikeouts tying a post-season record for most strikeouts in a nine inning game.  The first time that happened, the Tigers were the victim as Bob Gibson retired 17 Tigers on strikes in game one of the 1968 World Series.  The other instance was in 1998 when Kevin Brown (16) and Trevor Hoffman (1) punched out 17 Astros in the first game of the National League Divisional Series.  Thanks to Baseball-Reference for recently adding post-season games to their Play Index.  That made this really easy to look up. 

Sanchez tied another record with four strikeouts in the first inning.  Red Sox right fielder Shane Victorino reached first after strike three got by catcher Alex Avila and Sanchez added three traditional strikeouts.  The only other pitcher to do that was Orval Overall of the Cubs in 1908 World Series.  The Tigers were on the other side of that one too.

The start by Sanchez produced a Game Score of 80, tying him for ninth best game for a Tiger in post-season.  The top score was by Justin Verlander with 89 in Game five versus the Athletics last season.  The second one also belongs to Verlander with 87 in Game five versus the Athletics this year.

The hitting star once again was Jhonny Peralta who singled home the only run in of the game in the sixth inning.  He also had two doubles in the game.  Peralta has certainly answered any concerns about rust after his 50-game suspension.  I'm sure there are people across the country, especially Red Sox fans, who are not happy with his participation in post-season after a Performance Enhancing Drug suspension.  Not many Tigers fans are complaining though.  

It was a quite a way for the Tigers to start the series and the best part is that their two best pitchers - Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander - are lined up to pitch games two and three.

Tigers Force Game Five With Thrilling Comeback

Many Tiger fans were not optimistic heading into today's potential elimination game versus the Athletics and the early innings did little to inspire confidence.  Starter Doug Fister did not have his usual good command.  The slumping hitters continued to flail away as Oakland right hander Dan Straily held them hitless for four innings.  Gimpy slugger Miguel Cabrera seemed to aggravate one of his injuries when he tried to make a play on a little nubber towards third base.  It was not looking good at all.   

When Athletics shortstop Jed Lowrie lofted a two-run homer to right just beyond the the glove of a leaping Torii Hunter, Oakland took a 3-0 lead against Fister in the top of the fifth.  Few fans, thought the Tigers could come back.  Earlier in the season, they might have expected the team to rally from behind but not today.  Not this team that had scored three runs in their last 21 innings, all in one inning.  Not with superstar Cabrera struggling badly at the plate with an array of injuries.

Up to that point, no Tiger had hit a home run in the series and half their starters were batting under .200.   Lead-off hitter Austin had already struck out twice today to up his series total to nine.  Torii Hunter, Cabrera and just about everyone else looked helpless at the plate.  The only base runner in the first four innings was hefty first baseman Prince Fielder, who was hit by a Straily pitch.

Tweeters on Twitter and posters on message boards were giving up on the season and already discussing off-season activity.  Facing a seemingly certain season-ending loss, fans were ready for a roster shake-up.  Would the Tigers re-sign second baseman Omar Infante?  How about dealing Doug Fister or Rick Porcello and moving Drew Smyly into the rotation?  Or maybe they would do something really big like trade Fielder or Jackson. 

Everything changed quickly in the bottom of the fifth.  Fielder led off with a single followed by another single by designated hitter Victor Martinez.  Then Jhonny Peralta, who missed most of the last two months of the regular season serving a 50-game suspension for performancing enhancing drug use and started the series on the bench, got his second big hit in two games - a three-run home run to left to tie the game at three.

After Fister and Straily both got through the sixth leaving the score tied at three, game one starter and probable Cy-Young-Award winner Max Scherzer came out of the bullpen in the seventh.  He wasn't at his best though giving up a run on two hits making it 4-3 Athletics.

So, Tigers followers were frustrated again, but not for too long this time as Martinez homered to right field just beyond the reach of outfielder Josh Reddick to tie the score 4-4 in the bottom of the seventh.  The play was reviewed when the Athletics argued that a fan had interfered.  A fan had indeed reached over and touched the ball, but the ball appeared to be going over the wall and it could not be assumed that it would have been caught.  So, the play stood.  (By the way,  those hoping that the instant replay thing is going to go really quickly with quick decisions withinn seconds will be disappointed if this play was any indication). 

Peralta followed with a double and scored on a broken bat single by Jackson who finally made contact after whiffing three times today and ten times in the series.  The Tigers had the lead to stay this time, but it would not be without drama.

In the eighth inning, Scherzer worked his way into a bases loaded and no out jam with on a walk, a double and an intentional walk. Then he proceeded with some of the clutchest pitching we've seen from a Tiger hurler in recent memory.  He went to three and two on Reddick before getting him to swing at a change-up about a foot off the plate for strike three.  He more easily retired catcher Stephen Vogt on strikes for the second out.  Finally, he got pinch hitter Alberto Callaspo to line out to Jackson in center for the final out.  That was some gutsy work by Mr.Scherzer.

The Tigers tacked on three insurance runs in the bottom of the eighth to make it 8-4.  The key hit was a two-run double by Infante.  It turns out they would need it as the closer Joaquin Benoit gave up two in the ninth making it an 8-6 final score.

I've been watching the Tigers for 46 years and this was one of the most dramatic games I've ever witnessed.  This one did not have a Magglio moment, but there was more at stake here with the Tigers facing elimination and there will be lasting memories - Peralta's blast, Martinez's reviewed homer, Jackson's single and Scherzer's great bases loaded and no out escape. 

Some Tigers fans may have given up hope early in the game, but the Tigers didn't quit and the season goes on.  Nine more wins for a World Championship.