Predicting the Final Standings

My long winded Tigers preview took up way too much time so I won't spend a lot of time on a Major League prevew. However, I wanted to predict the final standings and awards before the season starts. Here are my predicted final standings:

Boston*
New York*
Toronto
Tampa Bay
Baltimore

Detroit*
Minnesota
Cleveland
Chicago
Kansas City

Los Angeles*
Oakland
Texas
Seattle

New York*
Philadelphia*
Atlanta
Florida
Washington

St.Louis*
Milwaukee
Chicago
Houston
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh

Arizona*
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco
Colorado

The playoffs are a crapshoot but you can't do a standings prediction without adding playoffs so here it is:

Angels over Red Sox
Tigers over Yankees
Cardinals over Mets
Phillies over Diamondbacks

Tigers over Angels
Cardinals over Phillies

Tigers over Cardinals

MVP - Guerrero, Pujols

Cy Young - Santana, Peavy

Rookie - Gordon, Tulowitzki

Who is Chad Durbin?

The mysterious Chad Durbin has been called upon to replace the disabled Kenny Rogers in the startuing rotation for the Tigers. Based upon what I've been reading on the internet the past couple of days, this is a surprise to just about everyone other than Lynn Henning of the Detroit News who has been promoting Durbin since last summer. Others are wondering why they did not turn to Zach Miner or Wil Ledezma who both did a pretty good job filling in for the injured Mike Maroth last year. Some want to know why young Andrew Miller was not thrown into the fire. According to Jim Leyland, they actually did consider Miller but they decided to go with Durbin.

Who is this Durbin guy? He is a 6-2 208 pound 29 year old right-hander who started 28 games for Toledo last year. In 185 innings for the Mudhens, he showed good control with a 149/46 strikeout/walk ratio and posted a 3.11 ERA. He then appeared briefly for the Tigers in September allowing 1 run in 6 innings. This spring, he continued to pitch well compiling a 2.08 ERA in 21 2/3 innings. His good spring earned him a spot on the team but many figured he would serve mostly as a mop up man in blow outs.

It's been a long journey on the way to Detroit for Durbin. He was drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the third round of the 1996 amateur draft and was considered one of the best Royal prospects in the late 1990s. He had a low 90s fastball and a hard curve but his best pitch was his change-up which was considered one of the best in the game. He reached the majors at age 21 but was hit hard as his fastball was too straight and his curve too inconsistent for major league batters. His best year was in 2002 when he had a 4.93 ERA in 179 innings pitched.

After the 2002 season, he underwent reconstructive elbow surgery and quickly fell off the prospect map. between 2003 and 2005, he bounced around to three different organizations - Cleveland, Arizona and Washington - and showed little progress. Finally, the Tigers signed him to a minor league contract before the 2006 season and good things began to happen. Pitching coach Jeff Jones worked with him on developing a two seam fastball and a cutter. He mastered them fairly quickly and they worked better for him than his very hittable four seam fastball.

He pitched like a new pitcher in AAA last year but will he be a new major league pitcher or will he be the pitcher who has a 6.13 lifetime ERA for four organizations? Many are still skeptical and he has to be considered a long shot for success. However, Tigers management selected him over some pretty decent candidates and they have shown that they know something about pitching. One way or the other, we'll all find out more about Durbin very soon.

Rogers Out for Three Months

Kenny Rogers had surgery on his pitching shoulder today to remove a blood clot and to repair arteries and will be out at least three months. According to John Lowe of the Free Press, Rogers actually had a similar surgery with the same doctor in 2001 so at least he has a history of recovery. He won't be pitching until at least July and there is no telling how effective he will be once he does return. Chad Durbin will take Kenny Rogers' spot in the rotation and will pitch on Saturday versus the Royals. If Durbin does not work out, Andrew Miller will probably be next in line:

"We really only talked about two options, basically," Leyland said. "Those were [Andrew] Miller or Durbin. We decided to stay on our course with that. We checked with the Minor League people. Miller's throwing good. He's also working on some things, so we think that we want him to get some starts there under his belt.

Guillen Signed through 2011

According to Danny Knobler, the Tigers have signed Carlos Guillen to a 4 year $48 millon dollar deal which will keep him a Tiger through 2011. The deal is somewhat of a risk given his history of injuries but his bat would have been really difficult to replace after the season. He has arguably been the MVP of the team over the last three years in aggregate and, in 2006, he actually had a season which was worthy of league MVP consideration. Since he probably could have gotten more money on the open market, we can consider this to be a bit of a home town discount. This deal is great news and helps to alleviate the disappointment of the news about Kenny Rogers.

Rogers Placed on Disabled List

Today, was supposed to be a quiet day for Tigers fans as we all wait for the season opener next Monday. It turned out to be anything but quiet. First, I woke up this morning to the news that Carlos Guillen and the Tigers might be getting closer to a contract agreement. That was a good way to start the day but it was far from the bog story of the day.

Later, I heard that Kenny Rogers was being placed on the disabled list due to a fatigued arm. He would miss his first start and nobody was saying much about his ailment but Dave Dombrowski did not sound too alarmed:

``We don't think (it's going to be long-term),'' Dave Dombrowski said.

My first reaction was that Rogers is 42 years old and can't be expected to go 200+ innings again this year. He's bound to have little ailments from time to time. I would have been really worried if it was a young pitcher like Jeremy Bonderman or Justin Verlander but I wasn't too concerned about Rogers.

Now, I'm reading that Rogers may be suffering from a blood clot. No details are being given and nothing has been said publicly but John Lowe has a source who says it is a clot:

Dombrowski didn’t provide any other details on Rogers’ ailment. However, a person familiar with the situation said that a club official informed him that Rogers has a blood clot.

It is not known if the blood clot is in Rogers’ arm or how serious it might be.

Rogers left the team today to undergo tests by a specialist at an undisclosed location.

This obviously sounds much more ominous than "arm fatigue". There's no way to say how serious it is at this time. A clot could clear up by itself or it require surgery and turn into a career threatening situation. I'm sure we'll know more in the next few days.

What we do know now is that Chad Durbin will take his place in the rotation and Bobby Seay has been added to the 25 man roster. I'm a bit surprised that Will Ledezma or Zach Miner is not going to join the rotation but Durbin is the man for now. If Rogers' problem turns into a long term situation, it is possible that we might be seeing Andrew Miller sooner than expected. In fact, Jim Leyland said that Miller was the other option they considered before deciding on Durbin:

"We really only talked about two options, basically," Leyland said. "Those were [Andrew] Miller or Durbin. We decided to stay on our course with that. We checked with the Minor League people. Miller's throwing good. He's also working on some things, so we think that we want him to get some starts there under his belt. Durbin had a great year in Triple-A last year."

So what was supposed to be a slow news day has turned into something else. Only time will tell how big of a deal this will be.