It's late and I'm too emotionally drained to really give this game it's due. However, this was the first post-season game ever between two great historical franchises and it it turned out to be a classic. So, I need to comment.
This game was so emotionally charged that I kept forgetting the Tigers had a no hitter going until Red Sox outfielder Daniel Nava singled off closer Joaquin Benoit with one out in the ninth. Starter Anibal Sanchez had a no hit shutout with 12 strikeouts for six innings, but it was absolutely the right decision to take him out of the game. His pitch count was up to 116 and he had worked a stressful sixth loading the bases on walks before striking out Red Sox shortstop Stephen Drew to end it. I was actually expecting him to be removed after the third base on balls.
Sanchez combined with four relievers - Al Alburquerque, Jose Veras, Drew Smiley and Benoit for 17 strikeouts tying a post-season record for most strikeouts in a nine inning game. The first time that happened, the Tigers were the victim as Bob Gibson retired 17 Tigers on strikes in game one of the 1968 World Series. The other instance was in 1998 when Kevin Brown (16) and Trevor Hoffman (1) punched out 17 Astros in the first game of the National League Divisional Series. Thanks to Baseball-Reference for recently adding post-season games to their Play Index. That made this really easy to look up.
Sanchez tied another record with four strikeouts in the first inning. Red Sox right fielder Shane Victorino reached first after strike three got by catcher Alex Avila and Sanchez added three traditional strikeouts. The only other pitcher to do that was Orval Overall of the Cubs in 1908 World Series. The Tigers were on the other side of that one too.
The start by Sanchez produced a Game Score of 80, tying him for ninth best game for a Tiger in post-season. The top score was by Justin Verlander with 89 in Game five versus the Athletics last season. The second one also belongs to Verlander with 87 in Game five versus the Athletics this year.
The hitting star once again was Jhonny Peralta who singled home the only run in of the game in the sixth inning. He also had two doubles in the game. Peralta has certainly answered any concerns about rust after his 50-game suspension. I'm sure there are people across the country, especially Red Sox fans, who are not happy with his participation in post-season after a Performance Enhancing Drug suspension. Not many Tigers fans are complaining though.
It was a quite a way for the Tigers to start the series and the best part is that their two best pitchers - Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander - are lined up to pitch games two and three.
Sunday, October 13, 2013
Tuesday, October 08, 2013
Tigers Force Game Five With Thrilling Comeback
Many Tiger fans were not optimistic heading into today's potential elimination game versus the Athletics and the early innings did little to inspire confidence. Starter Doug Fister did not have his usual good command. The slumping hitters continued to flail away as Oakland right hander Dan Straily held them hitless for four innings. Gimpy slugger Miguel Cabrera seemed to aggravate one of his injuries when he tried to make a play on a little nubber towards third base. It was not looking good at all.
When Athletics shortstop Jed Lowrie lofted a two-run homer to right just beyond the the glove of a leaping Torii Hunter, Oakland took a 3-0 lead against Fister in the top of the fifth. Few fans, thought the Tigers could come back. Earlier in the season, they might have expected the team to rally from behind but not today. Not this team that had scored three runs in their last 21 innings, all in one inning. Not with superstar Cabrera struggling badly at the plate with an array of injuries.
Up to that point, no Tiger had hit a home run in the series and half their starters were batting under .200. Lead-off hitter Austin had already struck out twice today to up his series total to nine. Torii Hunter, Cabrera and just about everyone else looked helpless at the plate. The only base runner in the first four innings was hefty first baseman Prince Fielder, who was hit by a Straily pitch.
Tweeters on Twitter and posters on message boards were giving up on the season and already discussing off-season activity. Facing a seemingly certain season-ending loss, fans were ready for a roster shake-up. Would the Tigers re-sign second baseman Omar Infante? How about dealing Doug Fister or Rick Porcello and moving Drew Smyly into the rotation? Or maybe they would do something really big like trade Fielder or Jackson.
Everything changed quickly in the bottom of the fifth. Fielder led off with a single followed by another single by designated hitter Victor Martinez. Then Jhonny Peralta, who missed most of the last two months of the regular season serving a 50-game suspension for performancing enhancing drug use and started the series on the bench, got his second big hit in two games - a three-run home run to left to tie the game at three.
After Fister and Straily both got through the sixth leaving the score tied at three, game one starter and probable Cy-Young-Award winner Max Scherzer came out of the bullpen in the seventh. He wasn't at his best though giving up a run on two hits making it 4-3 Athletics.
So, Tigers followers were frustrated again, but not for too long this time as Martinez homered to right field just beyond the reach of outfielder Josh Reddick to tie the score 4-4 in the bottom of the seventh. The play was reviewed when the Athletics argued that a fan had interfered. A fan had indeed reached over and touched the ball, but the ball appeared to be going over the wall and it could not be assumed that it would have been caught. So, the play stood. (By the way, those hoping that the instant replay thing is going to go really quickly with quick decisions withinn seconds will be disappointed if this play was any indication).
Peralta followed with a double and scored on a broken bat single by Jackson who finally made contact after whiffing three times today and ten times in the series. The Tigers had the lead to stay this time, but it would not be without drama.
In the eighth inning, Scherzer worked his way into a bases loaded and no out jam with on a walk, a double and an intentional walk. Then he proceeded with some of the clutchest pitching we've seen from a Tiger hurler in recent memory. He went to three and two on Reddick before getting him to swing at a change-up about a foot off the plate for strike three. He more easily retired catcher Stephen Vogt on strikes for the second out. Finally, he got pinch hitter Alberto Callaspo to line out to Jackson in center for the final out. That was some gutsy work by Mr.Scherzer.
The Tigers tacked on three insurance runs in the bottom of the eighth to make it 8-4. The key hit was a two-run double by Infante. It turns out they would need it as the closer Joaquin Benoit gave up two in the ninth making it an 8-6 final score.
I've been watching the Tigers for 46 years and this was one of the most dramatic games I've ever witnessed. This one did not have a Magglio moment, but there was more at stake here with the Tigers facing elimination and there will be lasting memories - Peralta's blast, Martinez's reviewed homer, Jackson's single and Scherzer's great bases loaded and no out escape.
Some Tigers fans may have given up hope early in the game, but the Tigers didn't quit and the season goes on. Nine more wins for a World Championship.
When Athletics shortstop Jed Lowrie lofted a two-run homer to right just beyond the the glove of a leaping Torii Hunter, Oakland took a 3-0 lead against Fister in the top of the fifth. Few fans, thought the Tigers could come back. Earlier in the season, they might have expected the team to rally from behind but not today. Not this team that had scored three runs in their last 21 innings, all in one inning. Not with superstar Cabrera struggling badly at the plate with an array of injuries.
Up to that point, no Tiger had hit a home run in the series and half their starters were batting under .200. Lead-off hitter Austin had already struck out twice today to up his series total to nine. Torii Hunter, Cabrera and just about everyone else looked helpless at the plate. The only base runner in the first four innings was hefty first baseman Prince Fielder, who was hit by a Straily pitch.
Tweeters on Twitter and posters on message boards were giving up on the season and already discussing off-season activity. Facing a seemingly certain season-ending loss, fans were ready for a roster shake-up. Would the Tigers re-sign second baseman Omar Infante? How about dealing Doug Fister or Rick Porcello and moving Drew Smyly into the rotation? Or maybe they would do something really big like trade Fielder or Jackson.
Everything changed quickly in the bottom of the fifth. Fielder led off with a single followed by another single by designated hitter Victor Martinez. Then Jhonny Peralta, who missed most of the last two months of the regular season serving a 50-game suspension for performancing enhancing drug use and started the series on the bench, got his second big hit in two games - a three-run home run to left to tie the game at three.
After Fister and Straily both got through the sixth leaving the score tied at three, game one starter and probable Cy-Young-Award winner Max Scherzer came out of the bullpen in the seventh. He wasn't at his best though giving up a run on two hits making it 4-3 Athletics.
So, Tigers followers were frustrated again, but not for too long this time as Martinez homered to right field just beyond the reach of outfielder Josh Reddick to tie the score 4-4 in the bottom of the seventh. The play was reviewed when the Athletics argued that a fan had interfered. A fan had indeed reached over and touched the ball, but the ball appeared to be going over the wall and it could not be assumed that it would have been caught. So, the play stood. (By the way, those hoping that the instant replay thing is going to go really quickly with quick decisions withinn seconds will be disappointed if this play was any indication).
Peralta followed with a double and scored on a broken bat single by Jackson who finally made contact after whiffing three times today and ten times in the series. The Tigers had the lead to stay this time, but it would not be without drama.
In the eighth inning, Scherzer worked his way into a bases loaded and no out jam with on a walk, a double and an intentional walk. Then he proceeded with some of the clutchest pitching we've seen from a Tiger hurler in recent memory. He went to three and two on Reddick before getting him to swing at a change-up about a foot off the plate for strike three. He more easily retired catcher Stephen Vogt on strikes for the second out. Finally, he got pinch hitter Alberto Callaspo to line out to Jackson in center for the final out. That was some gutsy work by Mr.Scherzer.
The Tigers tacked on three insurance runs in the bottom of the eighth to make it 8-4. The key hit was a two-run double by Infante. It turns out they would need it as the closer Joaquin Benoit gave up two in the ninth making it an 8-6 final score.
I've been watching the Tigers for 46 years and this was one of the most dramatic games I've ever witnessed. This one did not have a Magglio moment, but there was more at stake here with the Tigers facing elimination and there will be lasting memories - Peralta's blast, Martinez's reviewed homer, Jackson's single and Scherzer's great bases loaded and no out escape.
Some Tigers fans may have given up hope early in the game, but the Tigers didn't quit and the season goes on. Nine more wins for a World Championship.
Monday, October 07, 2013
Fister Looks to get Tigers Back in Control
With the Tigers down to games two games to one in the best of five American League Divisional Series versus the Athletics, manager Jim Leyland will hand the ball to right hander Doug Fister early Tuesday evening. Despite his long lanky six-foot-eight-inch frame, Fister does not have the imposing stuff of teammates Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez. Instead, he is a finesse pitcher whose average fastball is a touch below 90 MPH, but his results are not far behind the staff aces.
On a staff which set the all-time single-season strikeout record, Fister punched out just 6.9 batters per nine innings during this season, the lowest rate among Tigers starters. He makes up for his lack of a dominant strikeout pitch with a calm demeanor and excellent control. He has extensive training in target shooting and he carries his marksmanship to the mound walking just 1.8 batters per nine innings over the last three years.
The 29-year-old Merced, California native also rarely allows a home run surrendering just 0.6 per nine innings in 2013. This is no fluke as he has the given up round trippers at the same low rate since 2011 to lead all American League starters during that period. Fister uses his sinker, curve and splitter to get batters to pound the ball into the dirt leading to a 54.3% ground ball rate, fourth lowest in the AL this year.
Due to his impressive walk and home run rates, Fister was seventh in the AL with a 3.26 Fielding Independent Pitching ERA (FIP), a statistic designed to measure a pitcher's performance on events that he essentially controls without the help of fielders - strikeouts walks, hit batsmen and home runs. He was also eighth in the league with 4.5 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs.
The last time he pitched in post-season, the unflappable Fister survived a line drive off his head without missing a beat in the second game of the 2012 World Series. He stayed in to allow just one run in six innings versus the Giants. The Tigers lost the game, but that performance may have been the highlight of a lackluster World Series for the Tigers. Fister was excellent all post-season putting up a 1.37 ERA in three starts.
Fister did not fare well in his one start versus Oakland this year allowing seven runs in five innings back in August, but that's the life for a finesse pitcher. When he doesn't have really good command of his pitches, he's likely to be hit hard. If he has it, which is usually the case, Fister is the perfect pitcher to go against Oakland, a team that thrives on walks and home runs.
When he is not pitching or shooting at targets, Fister keeps his legs strong and his mind clear by running long distance. He often runs 10 miles in a day and has competed in half marathons during the off-season. On Tuesday, it will be more of a do or die sprint than a marathon as the Tigers face possible elimination in game four versus Oakland.
On a staff which set the all-time single-season strikeout record, Fister punched out just 6.9 batters per nine innings during this season, the lowest rate among Tigers starters. He makes up for his lack of a dominant strikeout pitch with a calm demeanor and excellent control. He has extensive training in target shooting and he carries his marksmanship to the mound walking just 1.8 batters per nine innings over the last three years.
The 29-year-old Merced, California native also rarely allows a home run surrendering just 0.6 per nine innings in 2013. This is no fluke as he has the given up round trippers at the same low rate since 2011 to lead all American League starters during that period. Fister uses his sinker, curve and splitter to get batters to pound the ball into the dirt leading to a 54.3% ground ball rate, fourth lowest in the AL this year.
Due to his impressive walk and home run rates, Fister was seventh in the AL with a 3.26 Fielding Independent Pitching ERA (FIP), a statistic designed to measure a pitcher's performance on events that he essentially controls without the help of fielders - strikeouts walks, hit batsmen and home runs. He was also eighth in the league with 4.5 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs.
The last time he pitched in post-season, the unflappable Fister survived a line drive off his head without missing a beat in the second game of the 2012 World Series. He stayed in to allow just one run in six innings versus the Giants. The Tigers lost the game, but that performance may have been the highlight of a lackluster World Series for the Tigers. Fister was excellent all post-season putting up a 1.37 ERA in three starts.
Fister did not fare well in his one start versus Oakland this year allowing seven runs in five innings back in August, but that's the life for a finesse pitcher. When he doesn't have really good command of his pitches, he's likely to be hit hard. If he has it, which is usually the case, Fister is the perfect pitcher to go against Oakland, a team that thrives on walks and home runs.
When he is not pitching or shooting at targets, Fister keeps his legs strong and his mind clear by running long distance. He often runs 10 miles in a day and has competed in half marathons during the off-season. On Tuesday, it will be more of a do or die sprint than a marathon as the Tigers face possible elimination in game four versus Oakland.
Sunday, October 06, 2013
Tigers Have One more Ace Up Their Sleeve
In game one of the American League Divisional Series, Tigers designated ace Max Scherzer showed the nation why he will probably win the Cy Young Award this year. In the second game, former Most Valuable Player and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander looked like his old dominant self, although Athletics rookie Sonny Gray was just as good in what was a marvelous pitcher's duel.
The Tigers are not done rolling out their aces though as the somewhat lesser known Anibal Sanchez will strut his stuff in game three. Sanchez led the American League in both ERA (2.57) and Fielding Independent Pitching or FIP (2.39), a statistic designed to measure a pitcher's performance on events that he essentially controls without the help of fielders - strikeouts walks, hit batsmen and home runs.
Highlighting Sanchez's accomplishments this year was a game versus the Braves in April, where he set an all-time single-game franchise record for strikeouts with 17. If a strained right shoulder had not caused him to miss three or four starts during the summer, he would be more prominent in the Cy Young discussion and probably still deserves to be in the picture.
Sanchez originally came to the Tigers in a trade with the Marlins last summer along with second baseman Omar Infante. The Venezuelan right hander was a great addition for the pennant race and was even better in post-season. However, the Tigers raised some eyebrows when they signed Sanchez to a five-year $88 million free-agent contract during the winter. Many felt that was an overpay for a "third starter" but, so far, it has worked out about as well as could have been reasonably imagined.
Both Sanchez's ERA and FIP improved by more than a run from 2012-2013 (See Figure 1 below) due largely to an increase in strikeouts (7.7 per 9 IP in 2012 versus 10.0 in 2013) and decrease in home runs (0.9 per 9 IP in 2012 versus 0.5 in 2013).
Figure 1: Anibal Sanchez's Statistics, 2011-2013
Data source: FanGraphs.com
Figure 2 below, extracted from Brooks Baseball, shows that Sanchez's whiff per swing rate (percent of swings where the batter failed to make contact) increased on all five of his pitches this year - four seam fastball, sinker, change up, slider and curve ball - which would explain the increase in strikeouts.
Figure 2: Anibal Sanchez - Whiffs Per Swing, 2008-2013
The elevated whiff rate could be related to a boost in velocity of all his pitches (See Figure 3). In particular, the speed of his four seamer increased from 92.3 MPH in 2011-2012 to 93.7 MPH this year.
Figure 3: Anibal Sanchez - Pitch Velocity, 2008-2013
According to additional Pitch f/x data, Sanchez is also doing a better job of keeping the ball down. He has located 33% of his pitches this year in the lower third of the strike zone or below the strike zone where he can get more swings and misses, which is up from 29% last year. This could be the reason for the drop in home runs allowed as well the increase in strikeouts
Home run rates tend to fluctuate a lot from year to year and can be the result of good fortune. The rate of swings and misses against a pitcher is generally more stable, so an increase is more likely to be a real improvement. So, if he can stay healthy, he may bring a better return on his investment than some analysts thought possible.
For now though, the Tigers and their fans are just concerned with winning a couple of playoff rounds and then the World Series. They are struggling at the plate, but it's hard to bet against a team with not one, not two, but three aces.
The Tigers are not done rolling out their aces though as the somewhat lesser known Anibal Sanchez will strut his stuff in game three. Sanchez led the American League in both ERA (2.57) and Fielding Independent Pitching or FIP (2.39), a statistic designed to measure a pitcher's performance on events that he essentially controls without the help of fielders - strikeouts walks, hit batsmen and home runs.
Highlighting Sanchez's accomplishments this year was a game versus the Braves in April, where he set an all-time single-game franchise record for strikeouts with 17. If a strained right shoulder had not caused him to miss three or four starts during the summer, he would be more prominent in the Cy Young discussion and probably still deserves to be in the picture.
Sanchez originally came to the Tigers in a trade with the Marlins last summer along with second baseman Omar Infante. The Venezuelan right hander was a great addition for the pennant race and was even better in post-season. However, the Tigers raised some eyebrows when they signed Sanchez to a five-year $88 million free-agent contract during the winter. Many felt that was an overpay for a "third starter" but, so far, it has worked out about as well as could have been reasonably imagined.
Both Sanchez's ERA and FIP improved by more than a run from 2012-2013 (See Figure 1 below) due largely to an increase in strikeouts (7.7 per 9 IP in 2012 versus 10.0 in 2013) and decrease in home runs (0.9 per 9 IP in 2012 versus 0.5 in 2013).
Figure 1: Anibal Sanchez's Statistics, 2011-2013
Year
|
IP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
2011
|
196
|
9.3
|
2.9
|
0.9
|
.310
|
3.67
|
3.35
|
2012
|
196
|
7.7
|
2.2
|
0.9
|
.310
|
3.86
|
3.53
|
2013
|
182
|
10.0
|
2.7
|
0.5
|
.307
|
2.57
|
2.39
|
Data source: FanGraphs.com
Figure 2 below, extracted from Brooks Baseball, shows that Sanchez's whiff per swing rate (percent of swings where the batter failed to make contact) increased on all five of his pitches this year - four seam fastball, sinker, change up, slider and curve ball - which would explain the increase in strikeouts.
Figure 2: Anibal Sanchez - Whiffs Per Swing, 2008-2013
The elevated whiff rate could be related to a boost in velocity of all his pitches (See Figure 3). In particular, the speed of his four seamer increased from 92.3 MPH in 2011-2012 to 93.7 MPH this year.
Figure 3: Anibal Sanchez - Pitch Velocity, 2008-2013
According to additional Pitch f/x data, Sanchez is also doing a better job of keeping the ball down. He has located 33% of his pitches this year in the lower third of the strike zone or below the strike zone where he can get more swings and misses, which is up from 29% last year. This could be the reason for the drop in home runs allowed as well the increase in strikeouts
Home run rates tend to fluctuate a lot from year to year and can be the result of good fortune. The rate of swings and misses against a pitcher is generally more stable, so an increase is more likely to be a real improvement. So, if he can stay healthy, he may bring a better return on his investment than some analysts thought possible.
For now though, the Tigers and their fans are just concerned with winning a couple of playoff rounds and then the World Series. They are struggling at the plate, but it's hard to bet against a team with not one, not two, but three aces.
Saturday, October 05, 2013
Verlander Looks to Build on September Success in Game 2.
After a masterful performance by ace Max Scherzer in game one of the American League Divisional Series late last night, the Tigers will send Justin Verlander to the mound against Athletics rookie Sonny Gray tonight. While Verlander is still a feared pitcher, he has not been quite his usual dominant self this year (See Figure 1). His ERA is up from 2.64 in 2012 to 3.46 in 2013 due mostly to an increase in walks (2.3 BB/9 IP in 2012 versus 3.1 in 2013) and hits (7.3 H/9 IP in 2012 versus 8.7 in 2013).
Figure 1: Justin Verlander's statistics in 2012 versus 2013
Year
|
IP
|
IP/GS
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
H/9
|
HR/9
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
2012
|
238
|
7.2
|
9.0
|
2.3
|
7.3
|
0.7
|
2.64
|
2.64
|
2013
|
218
|
6.4
|
8.9
|
3.1
|
8.7
|
0.8
|
3.46
|
3.28
|
Much has been made of Verlander's decrease in velocity this year but, according to BrooksBaseball.net, his average fastball speed has dropped only about one mile per hour which seems like a natural progression since 2009. His bigger problems have been location (as evidenced by increased walks) and decreased horizontal movement (Figure 2) of both his four-seam fastball and curve. The latter issue might explain why he has been easier to hit this year rather just dismissing it as a result of bad luck on balls in play.
Figure 2: Justin Verlander's Horizontal Movement By Year
Batter - Pitcher match-up data are always tenuous due to small sample sizes, but can sometimes give us a clue as to which hitters are most dangerous versus a particular hurler. In Verlander's case, no Oakland hitter with more than 10 at bats against him has an OPS of as high as .800. Switch-hitting Coco Crisp leads with a .777 mark in 24 at bats. Outfielder Yoenis Cespedes has three hits in just six appearances.
The biggest challenge for Verlander versus the Athletics will be pitching enough innings so that manager Jim Leyland does not have to go too early to his thin bullpen, After averaging over seven innings per start the last two years, Verlander has averaged only 6.4 innings per start this year. The Oakland batters like to work the count and were third in the American League in bases on balls this year.
Verlander has not received a great deal of hitting support lately getting shutout three times in September and tonight might face a similar difficulty with right hander Sonny Gray on the mound for the Athletics. Gray posted a 2.67 ERA with 67 strikeouts in just 64 innings in 12 games including 10 starts during the regular season. Gray has never faced the Tigers which is typically an advantage for pitchers more than batters.
So, the keys tonight will be whether Verlander can limit his pitch count against the patient Athletics and whether the Tigers hitters can adjust to Gray. I'm expecting another close low-scoring game tonight.
Last night, by pure luck, I correctly predicted a 3-2 Tigers victory. Tonight, my pick is Tigers 4 Athletics 2 with Alex Avila getting his home run (the one I incorrectly guessed last night).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
