Tigers Lose Their Close Game Magic

The 2009 Tigers barely outscored their opponents 745 to 743.  You would expect a team with such a small run differential to finish with 81 wins, but the Tigers managed to win 86 games.  The reason was because they had a record of 52-33 in games decided by just one or two runs.  At the time, I theorized  that they won so many close games, in part, because of Fernando Rodney’s high save conversion rate (37 for 38), seven walk-off wins and some luck.

This year, the Tigers had remarkably similar runs scored and runs allowed totals to 2009.  They outscored their opponents 751 to 743, but won just 81 games.  Pete Palmer – author of The Hidden Game of Baseball – estimated that a differential of ten runs is worth approximately one win.  In other words, adding ten runs to a team’s season total increases their expected wins (EW) by one and subtracting ten runs decreases their expected wins by one.   Palmer developed the following formula for expected wins based on that principle:

EW = games/2 + run differential/10

According to this formula, you would expect the Tigers to have 82 wins.  The results for other American League teams are shown in Table 1 below.  You can see that every team in the league finished within 4 wins of their expected wins.  So, the formula fit reality amazingly well in the American League this year.  This means that winning was largely a function of the obvious – scoring more runs and allowing fewer runs. 

   

Table 1: Wins and Expected Wins in AL in 2010

Team	R	RA	W	EW	W-EW
Royals	676	845	67	64	3
Orioles	613	785	66	64	2
White Sox	752	704	88	86	2
Twins	781	671	94	92	2
Blue Jays	755	728	85	84	1
Angels	681	702	80	79	1
Red Sox	818	744	89	88	1
Rays	802	649	96	96	-0
Tigers	751	743	81	82	-1
Rangers	787	687	90	91	-1
Indians	646	752	69	70	-1
Mariners	513	698	61	63	-2
Yankees	859	693	95	98	-3
Athletics	663	626	81	85	-4

The results for the National League are shown in Table2.  The Houston Astros were the only team falling more than five wins from their expected wins.  They won seven more games than expected (76 versus 69).  The reason was because they lost a lot of blow outs.  They were 1-13 in games with margins of eight runs or more.  The Cardinals won five fewer games than expected (86 versus 91).  In their case, they were 24-7 in games decided by six or more runs. 

Table 2: Wins and Expected Wins in NL in 2010

Team	R	RA	W	EW	W-EW
Astros	611	729	76	69	7
Pirates	587	866	57	53	4
Phillies	772	640	97	94	3
Cubs	685	767	75	73	2
Dodgers	667	692	80	79	2
Brewers	750	804	77	76	1
Padres	665	581	90	89	1
Giants	697	583	92	92	-0
Reds	790	685	91	92	-1
Braves	738	629	91	92	-1
Marlins	719	717	80	81	-1
Mets	656	652	79	81	-2
Nationals	655	742	69	72	-3
Rockies	770	717	83	86	-3
Diamondbacks	713	836	65	69	-4
Cardinals	736	641	86	91	-5

Getting back to the Tigers, why did they win five fewer games this year when their run differential was six runs more than it was in 2009?  The reason was because they had less success in close games.  After finishing 19 games above .500 in games decided by one or two runs last year, they were 33-38 this year.

It’s hard to blame their bullpen which was better than last’s year’s crew according to most statistics including ERA, FIP and WPA.  They also had their share of dramatic victories early in the season.  Some might attribute the difference in close game performance to poor managing or less desire to win, but I’m going guess that it was just a random thing. 

Data for this article were abstracted from FanGraphs.com.

Damon and Laird Out, Inge and Peralta Probably Staying

The tweets are coming in fast and furious from Jason Beck today as the Tigers get an early start to their hot stove season.  Here is the summary:

• Johnny Damon was told that he will not be returning in 2011

• Gerald Laird will also not be returning, probably by mutual agreement.

• The Tigers will not exercise the $15 million option on Magglio Ordonez's contract.  They can still try to sign him at a lower salary.

• The Tigers announced that they will probably not be re-signing Jeremy Bonderman.

• Brandon Inge has been offered a multi-year deal by the Tigers.  For Dave Dombrowski to broadcast that publicly, I have to think that he'll be signing soon.

• The Tigers want Jhonny Peralta back and are talking to his agent.  He should be their shortstop next year.  

• Carlos Guillen will go into the season without a regular position. 

• Phil Coke will join the starting rotation.

So, it appears that the Tigers infield is set for 2011 except to determine whether Scott Sizemore or Will Rhymes will be the second baseman.  The starting rotation is also pretty much set unless there is competition with Armando Galarraga for the fifth spot.  We can expect them to pursue, corner outfieders, DHs and relievers.

Coke Joins Rotation for Real

In the first big news of the Tigers "off-season", Jim Leyland announced that Phil Coke will join the starting rotation next year.  The 27-year-old southpaw will get his first start for the Tigers today  but that's because because none of their regular starters are available.  He is not expected to pitch more than two or three innings this time.  Next year, the plan is for him to be a full-time starter. 

Coke will be the sole lefty in the rotation behind Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello.  Armando Galarraga is the leading contender for the fift spot.  The move indicates two things.  First, Jeremy Bonderman is not likely to be back next year which is not a surprise.  It also suggests that they probably won't pursue a starting pitcher during the off-season.  Instead, we can expect them to focus on hitters and relievers.    

Will Rhymes Interview

Whether or not you think second baseman Will Rhymes has a future as a major league regular, it's hard not to root for him.  The diminutve infielder has made a lot of fans with his hustling play and solid contribution offensively and defensively down the stretch. One of his biggest fans is Kurt Mensching of Bless You Boys and Kurt got the opportunity to interview Will earlier this week.  Among other things, you'll learn that Rhymes is a biologist and that he makes himself very accessible to internet fans. 

It was particularly interesting to hear Rhymes's thoughts on the competitiveness of each minor league level.  He feels that there is not a big difference between Short season ball (Connecticut Tigers), level A (West Michigan WhiteCaps) and high level A (Lakeland Flying Tigers).  While he thinks that the jump to double-A (Erie SeaWolves) is the first really big challenge, he does not feel as if it's as big as the jump to Triple-A (Toledo MudHens:)

To me the lower levels are roughly equivalent, short season through high A.  Obviously you are continually learning at each level and people can make improvements or struggle at different levels but from a competition stand point, it is very similar.  AA begins to separate the men from the boys a little but I disagree with the jump to AA being the biggest.  To me AAA is a whole different animal.  You have a lot of veteran pitchers who really know how to pitch.  You also see a lot of major league-ready arms, and the bullpens are much improved.  Overall defense is better, and all of these things make it harder to hit.  

Playing Time May Help Cabrera Win MVP

Former Detroit Tigers beat writer and current Fox analyst Jon Morosi is supporting Miguel Cabrera for the MVP award over Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton.  The part of the article which piqued my interest was the list of criteria which writers are given in considering the MVP:

1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.

2. Number of games played.

3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.

4. Former winners are eligible.

5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

The last two criteria are just reminders and don’t have any bearing on a choice between Cabrera and Hamilton.  Criterion three is interesting in that each has experienced substance abuse problems.  Both have apparently conquered these issues however, and there is no evidence that either has an advantage in general character. 

So, that leaves us with items one and two.  Cabrera certainly has the upper hand over Hamilton in games played (146 versus 130).  In fact, Hamilton has only started 114 of those 130 games.  If he misses the rest of the season with injured ribs, he will have failed to start almost a third of his team’s games.  That’s a big chunk and it will probably be considered fairly heavily in MVP voting. 

The tricky part is criterion one – value of a player to his team.  Morosi gives the following definition of value:

I believe a player’s “value” is best defined as how difficult he would be for the team to replace.

I don’t disagree with this definition.  It’s essentially the same criteria used by many modern statistical analysts.  It fits nicely with the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) concept.  Where I disagree is how he determines value.   He reasons that the Rangers would still have a solid line-up without Hamilton, but that the Tigers would be lost without Cabrera:

Take away Hamilton, and the Rangers still have a very good lineup.
Take away Cabrera, and Ryan Raburn is the potential cleanup man.

He correctly states that Cabrera has a larger percentage of his team’s home runs and RBI than Hamilton.  There is no question that Cabrera is the centerpiece of the Tigers line-up and that Hamilton shares the load with the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, Nelson Cruz and Michael Young.  That’s a classic interpretation of what “valuable” means in MVP.  It has some merit, but I’m most interested in the number of runs Cabrera and Hamilton contribute to their teams. 

One way to estimate run contribution is with the Batting Runs statistic which I discussed earlier this week.  I’ll use the following weights for events:

NIBB 0.33

IBB 0.18

HBP 0.33

1B 0.47

2B 0.77

3B 1.04

HR 1.40

Out –0.27

Hamilton leads Cabrera 56.2 to 54.8 in Batting Runs.  If we attempt to adjust for home parks (Hamilton plays his home games in a more friendly hitters park than Cabrera), they are essential even: Hamilton 54.4 and Cabrera 54.3.

Now, let’s add equivalent baserunning runs from from Baseball Prospectus.  Hamilton has contributed an estimated 3.3 runs with his base running while Cabrera has cost the Tigers an estimated 1.3.  The tally is now Hamilton 57.7 and Cabrera 53.0.  That is how many offensive runs the two batters have contributed above what you would have been expected from an average batter.  So, according to these statistics, Hamilton has had slightly more value while he has been in the line-up than Cabrera has had. 

FanGraphs estimates that Hamilton has cost his team 2.4 runs versus Cabrera by not being in the line-up (18.6 replacement value 21.0)  So, the gap closes to 2.3 runs.  It’s really very close offensively and you could make an argument for either player on that basis.

Where Hamilton has a bigger advantage is in run prevention.  FanGraphs estimates that Hamilton has a 6 run advantage simply by playing outfield instead of first base.  That sounds fair enough to me.  What about quality of defense? If we take the average of Total Zone, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, Hamilton is an estimated +3 runs defensively and Cabrera is –5.   That all adds up to a 14 run difference on defense which is a lot.  Even if you don’t trust the defensive statistics at all and want to assume that all players are average defensively, it’s still a six run edge for Hamilton. 

Is there any way for Cabrera to close the gap?  What about situational hitting?  Win Probability Added (WPA) is a statistic which takes into account a player’s performance in various scenarios.  For example a home run to break a tie in the ninth inning would be worth more than a home run in a blow out.  Cabrera has a 6.5 WPA versus 5.9 for Hamilton.  So, Cabrera appears to have done a little better in clutch situations and that may be enough to swing the offense slightly in his favor.  I don’t know if it’s enough to make up for the fielding gap though. 

We’ll get back to the one area where Cabrera has the clear lead – playing time.  We kind of incorporated that into our calculations already but it’s still hard to justify giving an MVP to a player with 114 starts.  I think Hamilton has been the better player overall and I’m leaning that way at the moment, but if he doesn’t play another game and Cabrera finishes strong, I think you can make a decent case for  Cabrera.

Now, I don’t want to give the impression that Hamilton and Cabrera are the only candidates.  Jose Bautista, Robinson Cano, Adrian Beltre and Evan Longoria are in the mix as well.  Based on what I’ve read though, it seems that voters are giving Cabrera and Hamilton the most consideration.