Which Hitters Were Best At Advancing Runners in 2015?

Reds star Joey Votto excelled at advancing runners in 2015
(Photo credit: USA Today/ Sports Illustrated)

In earlier posts, I discussed some statistics which describe how runs are scored: (1) Baseball Prospectus' Others Batted In Percentage statistic which is the percent of runners on base which a batter drives in; (2) Runs Assisted which is the number of runs to which a batted contributed without getting a run scored or RBI. In this post, I'll talk about other things that can happen in a plate appearance where there are runners on base.   

The events that can occur when batters are presented with baserunners can be put into two broad categories (Advancement and Non-advancement) and five sub-categories.  There are three types of Advances (ADV):

• Other Batted In (OBI) - A baserunner is driven in by the batter.  It's the same thing as an RBI except a player does not get credit for driving himself in with a home run.

• Run Assisted (RAS) - A batter advances a runner to either second or third with a hit, base on balls, hit batsmen, error, sacrifice bunt, or another kind of out.  If that runner then scores either during the same at bat or an ensuing at bat, the batter who advanced him is given a Run Assisted.

• Unrewarded Advancement (UNR) - A batter advances a runner, but the runner does not score by the end of the inning.  

When I first presented the Runs Assisted metric, I also included a second part to the definition: "A batter reaches base and is removed for a pinch runner or is replaced by another runner on a force out.  If the new runner then scores, the batter who originally reached base is given a Run Assisted".   Here, I am only looking at whether a batter advances baserunners, so the second portion is excluded.

There are two types of Non-advances (NADV):

• Neutral (NEU) - A batter does not advance a runner, but there are no outs on the play. (e.g. a walk with a runner on second)

• Giveaway (GA) - A batter fails to advance a runner and one or more outs are made either at the plate or on the bases.

It is possible to have an Advance and a Giveaway in the same plate appearance.  For example, a batter comes up with runners on first and second and hits into a force out at second advancing the runner to third.  In that case, he gets credit for a Giveaway for the first runner and an Advance (either a RAS or UNR) for the second runner.  These statistics are discussed further in the comments section of a post at Tom Tango's Book Blog.  I basically followed his algorithm presented in comment #31. I have not programmed the odd-ball occurrences discussed, but they should not change the results too much.   

These counting statistics are not a replacement for Batting Runs or Base Runs or any of your other favorite batting evaluation statistics.  Their primary purpose is to fill gaps in baseball data collection.  I find it interesting to know how successful a batter was in advancing runners and how often he failed.  In a more sophisticated analysis, these statistics might have some practical use in building batting orders or in looking at the age-old clutch questions.  This post only serves as an introduction to some new statistical categories. 

Table 1 shows that Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo advanced more runners (206) than any player in baseball in 2015  The American League leader was Royals designated hitter Kendrys Morales with 190. 

Conversely, Reds outfielder Jay Bruce led everyone in non-advances with 310 with teammate Todd Frazier next in line at 307.  Part of the reason for all their failures though was that they were also among the leaders in opportunities to advance runners - Frazier with 452 and Bruce with 415.  

Table 1: MLB Runners Advanced Leaders, 2015

Player	Team	OBI	RAS	Unrewarded	Advances
Anthony Rizzo	Chicago	70	62	74	206
Bryce Harper	Washington	57	67	70	194
Kendrys Morales	Kansas City	84	53	53	190
Prince Fielder	Texas	75	58	54	187
Buster Posey	San Francisco	76	44	67	187
Xander Bogaerts	Boston	74	55	53	182
Adrian Beltre	Texas	65	51	65	181
Kris Bryant	Chicago	73	45	63	181
Matt Duffy	San Francisco	65	60	56	181
Josh Donaldson	Toronto	82	54	42	178

Data source:Retrosheet

Table 2: MLB Non-Advancement Leaders, 2015

Player	Team	Neutrals	Giveaways	Non-advances
Jay Bruce	Cincinnati	29	281	310
Todd Frazier	Cincinnati	16	291	307
Carlos Santana	Cleveland	39	265	304
Eric Hosmer	Kansas City	24	257	281
Marcus Semien	Oakland	18	262	280
Albert Pujols	Los Angeles	24	250	274
J.D. Martinez	Detroit	22	250	272
Jhonny Peralta	St. Louis	20	251	271
Kyle Seager	Seattle	24	244	268
David Ortiz	Boston	35	231	266

         Data source:Retrosheet

Bruce and Frazier finishing among the leaders in both opportunities and non-advances reminds us that these new measures are counting statistics like RBI which are dependent on opportunity.   So, it's useful to compute a rate.  There are several ways that could be done, but one simple one is Advance Percentage (ADV%).  

Table 3 indicates that Reds first baseman Joey Votto advanced 165 of 309 baserunners (excluding neutral plate appearances) for a .534 Advance Percentage.  This was the top percentage among players with 200 or more baserunners in their plate appearances.  Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera was the American League leader at .529.  The trailers are shown in Table 4 led by Indians outfielder Brandon Moss at .273.     

Table 5 shows that were some surprises among the Tigers Advancement leaders with outfielder Tyler Collins (.517) and catcher Alex Avila (.404) finishing second and third on the team.                             

                                       Table 3: MLB Advance Percentage Leaders, 2015

Player	Team	BR	ADV	ADV%
Joey Votto	Cincinnati	309	165	.534
Miguel Cabrera	Detroit	295	156	.529
Shin-Soo Choo	Texas	334	173	.518
Bryce Harper	Washington	375	194	.517
Anthony Rizzo	Chicago	407	206	.506
Mike Trout	Los Angeles	312	154	.494
Cesar Hernandez	Philadelphia	217	104	.479
Dee Gordon	Florida	261	125	.479
Matt Duffy	San Francisco	378	181	.479
Joe Mauer	Minnesota	330	158	.479

 Data source:Retrosheet

                                        Table 4: MLB Advance Percentage Trailers, 2015

Player	Team	BR	ADV	ADV%
Brandon Moss	Cleveland	275	75	.273
Jason Castro	Houston	204	58	.284
Jimmy Rollins	Los Angeles	296	88	.297
Mike Zunino	Seattle	250	75	.300
Marcus Semien	Oakland	375	113	.301
Scooter Gennett	Milwaukee	202	62	.307
Yasiel Puig	Los Angeles	204	63	.309
Yan Gomes	Cleveland	262	84	.321
Hanley Ramirez	Boston	285	92	.323
Jay Bruce	Cincinnati	415	134	.323

Data source:Retrosheet

Table 5: Tigers Advance Percentages, 2015

Player	OPP	ADV	ADV%
Miguel Cabrera	295	156	.529
Tyler Collins	120	62	.517
Alex Avila	104	42	.404
Nick Castellanos	341	135	.396
Ian Kinsler	357	136	.381
Jose Iglesias	233	88	.378
Andrew Romine	139	52	.374
J.D. Martinez	399	149	.373
Yoenis Cespedes	260	97	.373
Victor Martinez	343	127	.370
James McCann	268	95	.354
Rajai Davis	199	67	.337
Anthony Gose	269	88	.327

Data source:Retrosheet