Filling The Gap Between Runs and RBI: 2015

Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Pillar contributed to runs in ways that didn't show up in box score.
(Photo credit: FanSided.com)

Imagine the following scenario.  Tigers slow-footed designated hitter Victor Martinez leads off an inning with a single and is removed for speedy pinch runner Anthony Gose.  Third baseman Nick Castellanos doubles Gose to third and Gose eventually scores on a weak grounder by catcher James McCann. This sequence goes into the books as a run scored for Gose and an RBI for McCann, but Martinez and Castellanos get no credit for the team scoring a run despite contributing important hits.

To the best of my knowledge, the kind of run participation by Martinez and Hunter described above is not publicly tracked like runs scored and RBI.  For the past few years, I have track this run involvement for all players with the help of play-by-play data at Retrosheet.org.  I have tried to account for every instance of a player helping to create a run, whether it be a run scored, run batted in or an indirect contribution for all games where play-by-play data are available.

Limitations of Runs Scored and RBI 
 
The above example illustrates that the runs scored and RBI statistics do not always give players the credit they deserve for participation in run scoring, but that is not their only limitation.  Many analysts eschew these metrics because they measure things that are, to some extent, out of control of the individual batter.  Unless a batter hits a home run or steals home, he needs teammates to help him score runs.  Even a relatively poor base runner will score a lot of runs if he gets on base frequently and has good hitters behind him.  Who bats behind him in the line-up is as important as base running skill in determining how many runs a player will score.

The RBI statistic has similar limitations to runs scored.  Unless he smacks a home run, a player needs teammates on base in order to drive in runs.  If a player has hitters batting in front of him who frequently get on base, then he is more likely to drive in runs than if he has weaker hitters setting him up.   Thus, a player on a good hitting team has more chances to drive in runs than a player on a poor hitting team.

A batter’s position in his line-up also influences his runs scored and RBI totals. For example, a lead-off hitter  usually has fewer opportunities to drive home runs than a clean-up hitter, since the generally weaker 7-8-9 hitters bat in front of him.  The RBI leaders at the end of a season are as likely to be the players with the most opportunities as the players most proficient at hitting with men on base.

Many mathematically-minded fans would like to see RBI and Runs become extinct in favor of statistics, such as on-base percentage, Weighted On-base Percentage (wOBA) and Batting Runs, which isolate a player's contribution from those of his teammates.  Despite the shortcomings of these measures however, most traditional fans still like the concreteness of runs scored and RBI.  Players like it too which is understandable.  A batter does not want to reach base to improve his on-base percentage, but rather to put himself in position to score a run.  Moreover, a batter up with a runner in scoring position is not focused on his slugging average, but rather he is thinking about driving in the run.

The Origins of Runs and RBI

The runs scored and RBI statistics both have long histories. Shortly after Alexander Cartwright and the New York Knickerbockers established the first set of modern baseball rules, the first box score appeared in the New York Morning News on October 25, 1845.  The only statistics that were included in this box score were hands out (Today, they are simply called “outs”.) and runs for batters.  Some of the early baseball writers had ties to cricket, a relative of baseball, and early box scores reflected that association.  Hits that did not result in runs were not included because, in cricket, one either scores a point by reaching the opposite wicket or is out. 

The runs batted in statistic was recorded in newspapers in 1879 and 1880 and was an official statistic in the National League in 1891.  However, fans complained that the measure was unfair to leadoff batters and too dependent on opportunity and it was quickly dropped.  Ernie Lanigan, an important baseball statistician in the early 20^th century, personally tracked runs batted in and included the statistic in New York Press box scores starting in 1907.  It became an official statistic again in 1920 under the name, “Runs Responsible For”.  The RBI statistic gradually gained acceptance and eventually became even more popular than the runs scored metric. 

Runs Assisted

Because of their extensive history and their popularity with fans, media and players, the runs scored and RBI metrics are not going to disappear as some in the sabermetric world would like.  I would argue that they really shouldn't be eliminated altogether even from the sabermetric community.  While they should not be used as overarching player evaluation measures, it is good to know how actual runs were scored along with how they theoretically should have been scored.

If one is going to use actual runs scored in any analysis of players though, it is a good idea to consider the entire run as opposed to the popular practice of just looking at RBI. To that end, the Runs Assisted (or RAS to distinguish it from the pitching metric "Run Average") statistic gives players credit for contributing to runs without a run scored or RBI.  Here are the ways a batter can get a Run Assisted:  

• A batter advances a runner to either second or third with a hit, base on balls, hit batsmen, error, sacrifice bunt, or another kind of out.  If that runner then scores either during the same at bat or an ensuing at bat, the batter who advanced him is given a Run Assisted.

• A batter reaches base and is removed for a pinch runner or is replaced by another runner on a force out.  If the new runner then scores, the batter who originally reached base is given a Run Assisted.

The 2015 American League Runs Assisted Leaders are listed in Table 1 below.  Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Pillar led the league with 66 Runs Assisted.  Pillar assisted runs on the following events:

• 35 hits (H)
• 7 walks (BB)
• 3 hit batsman (HBP)
• 3 times reached on errors (ROE)
• 1 sacrifice bunt (SH)
• 13 outs (OUT)
• 3 Removed from bases due to force out or pinch runner and new runner scored (RR)

Note that the above numbers only add up to 65 instead of 66.  That is because a player can assist more than one run with one event.

Table 1: AL Runs Assisted Leaders, 2015

Player	Team	H	BB	HBP	ROE	SH	OUT	RR	RAS
Kevin Pillar	TOR	35	7	3	3	1	13	3	66
Shin-Soo Choo	TEX	28	12	5	1	1	16	2	65
Prince Fielder	TEX	26	18	3	0	0	11	5	63
Alex Rodriguez	NYA	29	20	1	1	1	5	4	61
Josh Donaldson	TOR	28	16	2	1	0	8	2	57
Robinson Cano	SEA	31	9	1	4	0	9	2	57
Jose Bautista	TOR	24	22	1	1	0	6	1	55
Xander Bogaerts	BOS	34	5	0	4	2	7	1	55
Billy Butler	OAK	25	11	4	0	1	11	3	55
Kendrys Morales	KCA	26	10	1	4	0	12	1	54
Eric Hosmer	KCA	23	13	0	0	2	15	0	53
Mike Moustakas	KCA	21	11	0	2	4	12	3	53
Michael Brantley	CLE	34	3	1	2	0	9	2	52
Adrian Beltre	TEX	32	10	0	3	0	6	0	51
Mitch Moreland	TEX	22	12	4	2	0	7	4	51

Data source:Retrosheet

The National League leaders are shown in Table 2 below.  We saw in Table 1 that the RAS leaders are not necessarily the top hitters in the league.  However, the best hitter in the NL - Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper - was also the RAS king with 66. 

Table 2: NL Runs Assisted Leaders, 2015

Player	Team	H	BB	HBP	ROE	SH	OUT	RR	RAS
Bryce Harper	WAS	30	29	2	0	0	5	0	66
Anthony Rizzo	CHN	22	15	9	5	0	11	2	64
Matt Duffy	SFN	35	6	0	4	0	15	1	61
Ian Desmond	WAS	23	13	1	2	5	13	1	58
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	24	11	3	2	0	13	3	56
Joey Votto	CIN	18	21	2	4	0	5	2	52
Yunel Escobar	WAS	23	14	1	1	1	7	4	51
Starling Marte	PIT	23	6	3	6	3	8	0	50
Jason Heyward	SLN	21	11	0	2	0	13	3	50
Jhonny Peralta	SLN	28	6	0	2	0	11	3	50
Matt Kemp	SDN	24	15	0	1	1	5	2	48
Buster Posey	SFN	26	6	2	1	0	9	4	48
Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	22	15	0	2	0	6	1	47
A.J. Pollock	ARI	27	9	1	1	0	8	1	47
Kris Bryant	CHN	12	18	2	5	1	7	0	45

Data source:Retrosheet

The Detroit Tigers RAS leaders were Miguel Cabrera (47), Ian Kinsler and J.D. Martinez (43).  Other top Bengals can be found in Table 3.  

Table 3: Tigers Runs Assisted Leaders, 2015

Player	H	BB	HBP	ROE	SH	OUT	RR	RAS
Miguel Cabrera	17	19	0	2	0	5	4	47
Ian Kinsler	17	10	0	2	0	14	1	44
J.D. Martinez	21	11	0	1	0	9	1	43
Nick Castellanos	18	9	0	2	0	2	4	35
Victor Martinez	13	10	0	1	0	7	2	33
Jose Iglesias	21	2	0	1	0	5	0	29
Yoenis Cespedes	18	5	0	2	0	2	0	27
Anthony Gose	15	5	1	4	0	1	1	27
Rajai Davis	12	2	0	3	0	3	1	21
James McCann	15	0	0	0	1	2	3	21

Data source:Retrosheet