Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Ten Predictions for Tigers Pitchers

In a recent post, I gave 10 predictions for Tigers batters.  Now, I'll do the same for the pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander will have another Cy Young-quality season with a 2.60 ERA and  240 strikeouts in 230 innings.  Since I know people will ask about wins, I'll say he'll win 20 backed by a strong offense. This year he'll win one in the World Series too.  
  • Many are hoping that the second half of 2012 was an indication that Max Scherzer is ready to emerge into an elite pitcher.  However, that will not be the case and he will instead continue to alternate between dominant and puzzling. He will also miss a few weeks with an arm problem during the year.  I'll give him a 3.80 ERA with 170 strikeouts in 155 innings.
  • Doug Fister will have another year like 2013 where he pitches well, but misses time with an abdominal injury.  He will finish with a 3.40 ERA and 145/45 K/BB ratio in 170 innings.  He will pitcher better in the second half than the first half
  • At 24 years old, Rick Porcello will finally take the next step up forcing his skeptics to admit that keeping him was a good idea.  He will increase his strikeout rate to 6.7 per nine innings while maintaining very good ground ball and walk rates.  He will also pitch deeper into games and reach 200 innings for the first time. His ERA will drop slightly below 4.00 for the first time since his rookie year.  
  • Anibal Sanchez may not live up to his contract five years from now, but he'll be a strong starter in 2013.  He will post a 3.75 ERA with 170 strikeouts in 190 innings.
  • Left-hander Drew Smyly will start the season in the bullpen, but get 16 starts due to injuries to Fister and Scherzer.  He'll do well in both roles putting up a 3.95 ERA and 125 strikeouts in 140 innings.   
  • Bruce Rondon will not emerge into the dominant closer the Tigers had hoped for in 2013.  He will save only six games as part of a committee before being sent to Toledo in June.
  • Other committee members will include Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke and Octavio Dotel.  Benoit will be the best Tigers reliever statistically 75/25 K/BB ratio and 2.75 ERA, Coke will get the most first half saves with eight while Octavio Dotel with have another solid season (3.30 ERA, 60/15 K/BB ratio)
  • The committee will keep the Tigers in good enough shape, but will begin to make Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland nervous by mid-season.  At that point, they will trade for a "real closer" who won't do any better than the committee, but will make decisions easier for Leyland.    
  • The entire staff will allow 665 runs.  That coupled with 800 runs scored will give the Tigers 95 wins and another Central Division title.


  1. We can sleepwalk through the entire season for those 95 wins. Wake me up when the playoffs start. Or if an exciting trade is made!

  2. Guess you were right about Rondon, but sooner than expected. Dammit!

  3. I probably should have drafted Coke instead of Benoit though. Benoit is better, but Leyland doesn't seem to trust him in save situations.



Blog Archive


My Sabermetrics Book

My Sabermetrics Book
One of Baseball America's top ten books of 2010

Other Sabermetrics Books

Stat Counter