Monday, February 11, 2013

PECOTA Comparables

Baseball Prospectus has released its Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) projections for 2013.  PECOTA is a complicated projection system created by Nate Silver and more recently improved by Colin Wyers.  It uses the statistics and characteristics (age, height, weight, position) of a given player and the statistics and characteristics of similar players to arrive at projections for that player.

Accessing the data requires a subscription, so I can't reveal too much, but I will give you a look at a few players.  Rather than giving you statistical projections, I will present lists of players which were considered the closest comparisons to Tigers players.  These comparisons are fun, but should probably not be taken all that seriously. 

Nick Castellanos

Aramis Ramirez Brooks Robinson Kevin Bell

Like most projection systems, PECOTA does not believe that Castellanos is ready for the majors yet, but Ramirez is a nice comparison to think about for the future.  Robinson doesn't make as much sense, since Castellanos isn't likely to be an elite defender regardless of where he ends up.  Bell is not a comparison we want to be thinking about.      

Avisail Garcia

Claudell Washington Jose Guillen Roberto Clemente

There is certainly a lot of ground between Washington/ Guillen and Roberto Clemente!  I'm going to guess that Garcia will be a lot more like the former than the latter. 

Andy Dirks

Alejandro De Aza Darin Erstad Omar Infante

De Aza is not too interesting as we don't know where he is headed anymore than Dirks.  Erstad seems like a reasonable comparison.  The bad news is that Dirks is already older (27 years old) than Erstad was in his career year in 2000.  Dirks will get to play on the same team as his other comparable (Omar Infante).  As an aside, PECOTA likes Infante quite a bit giving him the fourth highest WARP on the Tigers for 2013. 

Bruce Rondon

Ambrioux Burgos Matt Anderson Boone Logan

Remember Matt Anderson?  The Rondon/Anderson association may be your greatest fear heading into the 2013 season.  I do believe Rondon has more ability, but it's really hard to project young relievers.

Drew Smyly

Cole Hamels John Danks James McDonald

Hamels is probably a little too much to hope for.  John Danks? Perhaps.

Prince Fielder

Miguel Cabrera Jeff Bagwell Frank Thomas

You can't go wrong with that trio. 


  1. If you have a premium subscription to BP, how do access the PECOTA data and comps?

  2. Aidan, This link explains where to find everything:

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