Did the Tigers Fail Too Much with Runners On Base?

How many times this year were we listening to a Tigers game and heard television broadcaster Mario Impemba or Radio voice Dan Dickerson use the phrase: "Tigers threaten but do not score?"  It seems like too many times that the Tigers had runners on base, but they could not get the big hits to drive in runs.  Was it really worse for the Tigers than other teams though or did it just seem that way because of our emotional attachment to our favorite team?

One way to answer this question is with the RBI opportunity statistics at Baseball Prospectus. Using that data, we can determine how many runners the Tigers had on base in their plate appearances and how many of those runners scored. For example if Miguel Cabrera comes up with with the bases loaded and doubles home two runs, that is three base runners and two runs for a 66.7% success rate.  A batter does not get credit for driving himself in, so if Cabrera hits a grand slam, it's three runners and three runs (not four) for a 100% success rate.

Summing over all of the Tigers plate appearances, we can obtain their total Runners on Base (ROB) and total scored or Others Batted In (OBI) not including the batters themselves.  Table 1 shows that the Tigers had 3,793 ROB in their plate appearances, the fourth highest total in the league, so they gave themselves a lot of opportunities for runs.  Given that they were second in the league in On-base percentage, this is not surprising.  They were able to score 539 (or 14.2%) of those runners.  That does not sound like a lot, but it was slightly better than the league average of 13.8%.

The data can also be broken down by bases on which the runners were situated.  The Tigers had 1,940 runners on first base and scored 104 of them  for a 5.4 OBI% which was close to league average.  Their success rate with runners on second was 16.8% compared to a league average of 15.2%.  Finally, their OBI% with runners on third base was 36.9 versus a league average of 35.1%.

Table 1: RBI Opportunities and Successes for Tigers, 2012

Base	ROB	OBI	OBI%	Lg %	Rank
First	1,940	104	5.4	5.3	10th
Second	1,237	208	16.8	15.2	6th
Third	616	227	36.9	35.1	6th
Total	3,793	539	14.2	13.8	7th

Data Source: Baseball Prospectus


Table 2 shows the OBI% for each AL team.  The Rangers led the league with 15.4 followed by the Angels with 15.1.  The Tigers were seventh at 14.2.  So, the Tigers were not great at getting runners home, but they weren't bad either.  Considering that they were only tenth in the league with 163 home runs, it's not stunning that they didn't do better than middle of the pack.  

Table 2: RBI Percentages for AL Teams, 2012

Team	ROB	OBI	OBI%
Texas	3,780	582	15.4
Los Angeles	3,634	548	15.1
Chicago	3,462	518	15.0
Boston	3,610	537	14.9
Kansas City	3,551	517	14.6
Toronto	3,386	483	14.3
Detroit	3,793	539	14.2
Tampa Bay	3,560	494	13.9
Oakland	3,517	483	13.7
Minnesota	3,916	536	13.7
Baltimore	3,406	464	13.6
New York	3,920	531	13.5
Seattle	3,410	438	12.8
Cleveland	3,917	500	12.8

  Data Source: Baseball Prospectus


How about individual Tigers? It's no shock that Cabrera led the team with a 21.4 OBI% (See Table 3).  In other words, he drove in just over 21 percent of the runners who were on base in his plate appearances.  This was second in the league to Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton (22.4).  Prince Fielder (17.3) and  Austin Jackson (15.9) were both significantly above the 13.8 league average.

The biggest surprise was Quintin Berry's 15.8 mark in limited playing time.  I would guess that this was a fluke which won't be repeated in the future, but it helped the Tigers in 2012.  The bottom of the line-up was a lot less successful with nine players getting a good deal of playing team falling below league average.  This is probably what we remember when we think back at our frustration during the summer.

As a team though, the Tigers did not have an unusually difficult time taking advantage of their base runners, but rather had typical results.    


Table 3: RBI Percentages for Tigers Players, 2012

Player	ROB	OBI	OBI%
Miguel Cabrera	444	95	21.4
Prince Fielder	456	79	17.3
Austin Jackson	320	51	15.9
Quintin Berry	171	27	15.8
Alex Avila	264	39	14.8
Delmon Young	415	56	13.5
Jhonny Peralta	376	50	13.3
Brennan Boesch	329	43	13.1
Andy Dirks	207	27	13.0
Omar Infante	136	16	11.8
Ramon Santiago	168	15	8.9
Gerald Laird	120	10	8.3
Ryan Raburn	142	11	7.7
Don Kelly	87	6	6.9

Data Source: Baseball Prospectus