Justin Verlander Second to Felix Hernandez According to Half WAR

Yesterday, I considered some alternatives to the FanGraphs WAR statistic for Tigers pitchers.  Today, I'll look at the entire American League.  This is done based on five statistics found at FanGraphs which are discussed here:

RA9-Wins = Wins for a pitcher based on total runs scored while he is pitching
WAR (or FIP Wins) = Wins for a pitcher based on FIP stats (SO, BB, HBP, HR)
FDP-Wins = RA9-Wins minus WAR = Wins not accounted for by SO, BB, HBP, HR
BIP-Wins = Wins contributed by outcomes of balls in play
LOB-Wins = Wins contributed by sequencing of events or runners left on base.

In Table 1 below, pitchers are listed according to RA9-Wins. Mariners ace Felix Hernandez is the clear leader there at 7.1 Wins Above Replacement.  Tigers horse Justin Verlander ranks third at 5.8.  

Table 1: American League RA9 Wins Leaders

Pitcher	TEAM	RA9 Wins
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	7.1
David Price	Rays	6.0
Justin Verlander	Tigers	5.8
Chris Sale	White Sox	5.5
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	5.5
Matt Harrison	Rangers	5.0
Jake Peavy	White Sox	4.7
Jered Weaver	Angels	4.7
Bartolo Colon	Athletics	3.3
Jason Vargas	Mariners	3.2

Data source: FanGraphs.com

When pitchers are ranked according to the Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) statistics (Table 2),  Hernandez's lead is less commanding with just a fraction of a win more than Verlander (5.8 versus 5.6). 

Table 2: American League FIP Wins Leaders

Pitcher	TEAM	FIP Wins
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	5.8
Justin Verlander	Tigers	5.6
Chris Sale	White Sox	4.1
David Price	Rays	4.0
CC Sabathia	Yankees	3.9
Jake Peavy	White Sox	3.8
Max Scherzer	Tigers	3.6
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	3.4
Yu Darvish	Rangers	3.4
Matt Harrison	Rangers	3.2

Data source: FanGraphs.com

Verlander has better results on balls in play than King Felix, so adding balls in play to the FIP statistics (Table 3) puts Verlander in the lead 6.6 to 6.2.


Table 3: American League FIP+BIP Wins Leaders

Pitcher	TEAM	FIP Wins	BIP_WINS	FIP + BIP
Justin Verlander	Tigers	5.6	1.0	6.6
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	5.8	0.4	6.2
Jered Weaver	Angels	3.0	2.0	5.0
Chris Sale	White Sox	4.1	0.5	4.6
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	3.4	1.1	4.5
David Price	Rays	4.0	0.4	4.4
Jake Peavy	White Sox	3.8	0.4	4.2
CC Sabathia	Yankees	3.9	-0.3	3.6
Matt Harrison	Rangers	3.2	0.3	3.5
Wei-Yin Chen	Orioles	2.3	0.8	3.1

Data source: FanGraphs.com

On the other hand, Verlander has not been successful preventing base runners from scoring (LOB Wins).  Thus, if we add runners stranded to the FIP statistics (Table 4), he falls to fifth while Hernandez takes the top spot.  Tigers teammates Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are sixth and ninth respectively on that measure.   

Table 4: American League FIP+LOB Wins Leaders

Pitcher	TEAM	FIP Wins	LOB Wins	FIP + LOB
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	5.8	0.9	6.7
David Price	Rays	4.0	1.7	5.7
Chris Sale	White Sox	4.1	0.9	5.0
Matt Harrison	Rangers	3.2	1.5	4.7
Justin Verlander	Tigers	5.6	-0.9	4.7
Max Scherzer	Tigers	3.6	1.0	4.6
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	3.4	1.0	4.4
Jake Peavy	White Sox	3.8	0.4	4.2
Rick Porcello	Tigers	2.9	0.8	3.7
CC Sabathia	Yankees	3.9	-0.7	3.2

Data source: FanGraphs.com

Another alternaive would be give pitchers half credit for both balls in play and runners left on base:
FIP Wins + .5*BIP Wins + .5*LOB Wins.  For now, I will call that Half WAR (Table 5).  Hernandez is the Half WAR leader at 6.5 followed by Verlander at 5.7. 


Table 5: American League Half WAR Leaders

Pitcher	TEAM	FIP Wins	BIP Wins	LOB Wins	Half  WAR
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	5.8	0.4	0.9	6.5
Justin Verlander	Tigers	5.6	1.0	-0.9	5.7
David Price	Rays	4.0	0.4	1.7	5.1
Chris Sale	White Sox	4.1	0.5	0.9	4.8
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	3.4	1.1	1.0	4.5
Jake Peavy	White Sox	3.8	0.4	0.4	4.2
Matt Harrison	Rangers	3.2	0.3	1.5	4.1
Jered Weaver	Angels	3.0	2.0	-0.3	3.9
CC Sabathia	Yankees	3.9	-0.3	-0.7	3.4
Max Scherzer	Tigers	3.6	-1.6	1.0	3.3

Data source: FanGraphs.com

Would I use Half WAR to determine the Cy Young winner.  No, I would never base an award on any single statistic, especially an untested creation.  I always encourage people to look at all the information available and not fall back on one number.  I do think though that Half WAR is a happy medium between two extremes - relying solely on FIP statistics and just looking at actual runs allowed.