RA9-Wins = Wins for a pitcher based on total runs scored while he is pitching
WAR (or FIP Wins) = Wins for a pitcher based on FIP stats (SO, BB, HBP, HR)
FDP-Wins = RA9-Wins minus WAR = Wins not accounted for by SO, BB, HBP, HR
BIP-Wins = Wins contributed by outcomes of balls in play
LOB-Wins = Wins contributed by sequencing of events or runners left on base.
In Table 1 below, pitchers are listed according to RA9-Wins. Mariners ace Felix Hernandez is the clear leader there at 7.1 Wins Above Replacement. Tigers horse Justin Verlander ranks third at 5.8.
Table 1: American League RA9 Wins Leaders
TEAM
|
RA9
Wins
|
|
Felix
Hernandez
|
Mariners
|
7.1
|
David
Price
|
Rays
|
6.0
|
Justin
Verlander
|
Tigers
|
5.8
|
Chris
Sale
|
White
Sox
|
5.5
|
Hiroki
Kuroda
|
Yankees
|
5.5
|
Matt
Harrison
|
Rangers
|
5.0
|
Jake
Peavy
|
White
Sox
|
4.7
|
Jered
Weaver
|
Angels
|
4.7
|
Bartolo Colon
|
Athletics
|
3.3
|
Jason
Vargas
|
Mariners
|
3.2
|
When pitchers are ranked according to the Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) statistics (Table 2), Hernandez's lead is less commanding with just a fraction of a win more than Verlander (5.8 versus 5.6).
Table 2: American League FIP Wins Leaders
Pitcher
|
TEAM
|
FIP
Wins
|
Felix
Hernandez
|
Mariners
|
5.8
|
Justin
Verlander
|
Tigers
|
5.6
|
Chris
Sale
|
White
Sox
|
4.1
|
David
Price
|
Rays
|
4.0
|
CC
Sabathia
|
Yankees
|
3.9
|
Jake
Peavy
|
White
Sox
|
3.8
|
Max
Scherzer
|
Tigers
|
3.6
|
Hiroki
Kuroda
|
Yankees
|
3.4
|
Yu Darvish
|
Rangers
|
3.4
|
Matt
Harrison
|
Rangers
|
3.2
|
Data source: FanGraphs.com
Verlander has better results on balls in play than King Felix, so adding balls in play to the FIP statistics (Table 3) puts Verlander in the lead 6.6 to 6.2.
Table 3: American League FIP+BIP Wins Leaders
Pitcher
|
TEAM
|
FIP
Wins
|
BIP_WINS
|
FIP
+ BIP
|
Justin
Verlander
|
Tigers
|
5.6
|
1.0
|
6.6
|
Felix
Hernandez
|
Mariners
|
5.8
|
0.4
|
6.2
|
Jered
Weaver
|
Angels
|
3.0
|
2.0
|
5.0
|
Chris
Sale
|
White
Sox
|
4.1
|
0.5
|
4.6
|
Hiroki
Kuroda
|
Yankees
|
3.4
|
1.1
|
4.5
|
David
Price
|
Rays
|
4.0
|
0.4
|
4.4
|
Jake
Peavy
|
White
Sox
|
3.8
|
0.4
|
4.2
|
CC
Sabathia
|
Yankees
|
3.9
|
-0.3
|
3.6
|
Matt Harrison
|
Rangers
|
3.2
|
0.3
|
3.5
|
Wei-Yin
Chen
|
Orioles
|
2.3
|
0.8
|
3.1
|
Data source: FanGraphs.com
On the other hand, Verlander has not been successful preventing base runners from scoring (LOB Wins). Thus, if we add runners stranded to the FIP statistics (Table 4), he falls to fifth while Hernandez takes the top spot. Tigers teammates Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are sixth and ninth respectively on that measure.
Table 4: American League FIP+LOB Wins Leaders
Pitcher
|
TEAM
|
FIP
Wins
|
LOB
Wins
|
FIP
+ LOB
|
Felix
Hernandez
|
Mariners
|
5.8
|
0.9
|
6.7
|
David
Price
|
Rays
|
4.0
|
1.7
|
5.7
|
Chris
Sale
|
White
Sox
|
4.1
|
0.9
|
5.0
|
Matt
Harrison
|
Rangers
|
3.2
|
1.5
|
4.7
|
Justin
Verlander
|
Tigers
|
5.6
|
-0.9
|
4.7
|
Max
Scherzer
|
Tigers
|
3.6
|
1.0
|
4.6
|
Hiroki
Kuroda
|
Yankees
|
3.4
|
1.0
|
4.4
|
Jake
Peavy
|
White
Sox
|
3.8
|
0.4
|
4.2
|
Rick Porcello
|
Tigers
|
2.9
|
0.8
|
3.7
|
CC
Sabathia
|
Yankees
|
3.9
|
-0.7
|
3.2
|
Data source: FanGraphs.com
Another alternaive would be give pitchers half credit for both balls in play and runners left on base:
FIP Wins + .5*BIP Wins + .5*LOB Wins. For now, I will call that Half WAR (Table 5). Hernandez is the Half WAR leader at 6.5 followed by Verlander at 5.7.
Table 5: American League Half WAR Leaders
Pitcher
|
TEAM
|
FIP
Wins
|
BIP
Wins
|
LOB
Wins
|
Half
WAR
|
Felix
Hernandez
|
Mariners
|
5.8
|
0.4
|
0.9
|
6.5
|
Justin
Verlander
|
Tigers
|
5.6
|
1.0
|
-0.9
|
5.7
|
David
Price
|
Rays
|
4.0
|
0.4
|
1.7
|
5.1
|
Chris
Sale
|
White
Sox
|
4.1
|
0.5
|
0.9
|
4.8
|
Hiroki
Kuroda
|
Yankees
|
3.4
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
4.5
|
Jake
Peavy
|
White
Sox
|
3.8
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
4.2
|
Matt
Harrison
|
Rangers
|
3.2
|
0.3
|
1.5
|
4.1
|
Jered
Weaver
|
Angels
|
3.0
|
2.0
|
-0.3
|
3.9
|
CC Sabathia
|
Yankees
|
3.9
|
-0.3
|
-0.7
|
3.4
|
Max
Scherzer
|
Tigers
|
3.6
|
-1.6
|
1.0
|
3.3
|
Data source: FanGraphs.com
Would I use Half WAR to determine the Cy Young winner. No, I would never base an award on any single statistic, especially an untested creation. I always encourage people to look at all the information available and not fall back on one number. I do think though that Half WAR is a happy medium between two extremes - relying solely on FIP statistics and just looking at actual runs allowed.
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