Monday, November 26, 2007

PrOPS to the Tigers in 2007

In a recent post, I presented some data on batted ball types for Tiger batters. The lists of leaders and trailers are somewhat useful for describing players but the batted ball data can also be used for evaluation and projection. There is a statistic called PrOPS (predicted OPS) developed by J.C. Bradbury at The Hardball Times which estimates what a batter’s OPS “should have been” based on strikeouts, walks, home runs and batted ball types. Bradbury discussed Props in Introducing PrOPS, an article he wrote last year.

PrOPS helps to identify which players may have been lucky or unlucky in a given year and hints at which ones may improve or regress in the following year. The OPS and PrOPS for Tigers batter in 2007 are given in Table 1 below. A player with an OPS exceeding his PrOPS may have been lucky (e.g.. his bloopers dropped in front of fielders or his grounders found holes). This player might be expected to have a lower OPS in 2008. A player with an OPS falling below his PrOPS may have been unlucky (e.g. their line drives were hit right at opposing fielders). This batter might be expected to have a higher OPS in 2008.

The table shows us the following:

  • Gary Sheffield had the highest PrOPS (.916) on the team in 2007. His .839 OPS was -.077higher than his PrOPS which suggests that he might have hit into some bad luck in 2007 and that we can expect an improvement next year.

  • Magglio Ordonez (OPS=1.029, PrOPS=.885) and Curtis Granderson (.913, .785) exceeded their PrOPS by .144 and .128 respectively. These were the top 2 differentials in the league. This indicates that they might be expected to have lower much OPS next year. I think most people expect Ordonez to regress next year and a very large drop in OPS would not surprise me. Granderson might fall back a bit but I do not expect a .128 decrease in OPS.

  • Others who would be expected to improve next year according to the PrOPS theory include Brandon Inge (-.058 differential) and Marcus Thames (-.045).
  • Others who would be expected to regress next year according to the PrOPS theory include Edgar Renteria (.072), Placido Polanco (.053), and Carlos Guillen (.047)


Table 1 – OPS and PrOPS for Detroit Tigers Batters in 2007

Player

PA

OPS

PrOPS

OPS-PrOPS

Sheffield

593

.839

.916

-.077

Ordonez

679

1.029

.885

.144

Thames

284

.776

.821

-.045

Guillen

630

.859

.811

.047

Polanco

641

.846

.793

.053

Granderson

676

.913

.785

.128

Inge

577

.688

.746

-.058

Casey

496

.746

.730

.016

Monroe

372

.637

.696

-.059

Rodriguez

515

.714

.687

.027

Jones

495

.735

.712

.023

Renteria

543

.860

.787

.072

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