Tigers Pitchers Got Lots of Easy Outs in 2013

 More than a third of the batters facing Max Scherzer in 2013 were "easy outs". 
 (Photo credit: Star Tribune)

Much has been written about fielding independent events - strikeouts, walks, hit batsmen and home runs - over the last several years.  These are things which a pitcher controls with minimal contribution from fielders.  No event is totally independent of teammates of course.  For example, an outfielder can reach over the fence to prevent a home run.  Additionally, recent research on framing pitches suggest that catchers can have some influence over strikeouts and walks.  Still, pitchers do control these events for the most part.

Another event which is mostly the responsibility of the pitcher, and could be considered fielding independent, is the infield fly.  While there are certainly fielders involved in getting outs on infield flies, there is not a lot of difference among major league infielders in their ability to catch infield flies.  Regardless of the pitcher or the team, when you see a pop up in the infield it almost always leads to an out.  Table 1 below shows that batters hit .022 and slugged .028 on pop ups in 2013.   These rates are much lower than those for any other batted ball type including ground balls.

Table 1: Batting Statistics by Batted Ball Type, 2013

Batted Ball Type	BA	SLG	OPS
Ground ball	.244	.262	.506
Infield fly	.022	.028	.050
Outfield fly	.231	.673	.905
Line drive	.674	.977	1.650

Data source: Retrosheet.org

The notion that infield flies are essentially fielding independent events is not not a new one.  Dave Cameron and Tom Tango have both suggested adding infield flies to the Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) statistic similar to how strikeouts are already included.  It's true that infield fly ball rate is less predictive of future performance than strikeout rate, but predicting the future is not the only function of FIP.  It is also used to evaluate past performance.

Since infield flies lead to outs almost as frequently as strikeouts, I have combined the two into a statistic I call Easy Out Percentage - EO% (not to be confused with OE%).  It is simply strikeouts plus infield flies divided by batters faced.  As mentioned above, this could also be incorporated into FIP, but simple statistics are good too.  Table 2 below shows that Rangers ace right hander Yu Darvish led the majors with a 38.3 EO% in 2013.  The National League leader was Matt Harvey of the Mets (35.4).

Three Tigers finished in the top six - Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer (34.9), AL ERA leader Anibal Sanchez (34.7) and the "disappointing" Justin Verlander (32.8). 

Table 2: Easy Out Percentage (Strikeouts and Infield Flies), 2012

Pitcher	Team	BFP	K	IFFB	EO%
Yu Darvish	Rangers	841	277	45	38.3
Matt Harvey	Mets	690	191	53	35.4
Max Scherzer	Tigers	836	240	52	34.9
Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	746	202	57	34.7
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	803	199	65	32.9
Justin Verlander	Tigers	925	217	86	32.8
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	822	216	48	32.1
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	908	232	59	32.0
Jose Fernandez	Marlins	681	187	31	32.0
Chris Sale	White Sox	866	226	48	31.6
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	731	191	39	31.5
Shelby Miller	Cardinals	722	169	57	31.3
Jose Quintana	White Sox	832	164	95	31.1
Erik Bedard	Astros	663	138	67	30.9
Ubaldo Jimenez	Indians	777	194	45	30.8
Julio Teheran	Braves	774	170	68	30.7
Cole Hamels	Phillies	905	202	75	30.6
A.J. Griffin	Athletics	823	171	80	30.5
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	856	198	63	30.5
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	819	192	56	30.3

                         Data source: FanGraphs.com 

The majority of pitchers rank similarly on K% and EO%, but there are some exceptions.  One such outlier was Jose Quintana of the White Sox who ranked 49 out of 109 pitchers (with 600+ batters faced) in strikeout percentage, but 13th in EO%.   The reason for the disparity was that Quintana (15.6%) ranked first in infield flies per batted ball even though he whiffed relatively few batters.

Another oddball was Pirates right hander A.J Burnett - 85th in K% and 39th in EO%.  In his case, he retired a lot of batters on strikes but had the lowest pop fly rate in the majors.

It is important to keep in mind that the ability to to induce popups has not been shown to be a highly repeatable skill for most pitchers.  For example, Quintana's rate in 2013 was about twice as high as in his rookie campaign in 2012.  Regardless, his infield flies in 2013 added value and he should get credit for them.   

Which Players Were Best at Advancing Runners in 2013?

Prince Fielder had more opportunities to advance runners than any hitter in 2013 and led the AL in both successes and failures.  (Photo credit: Getty Images)

In earlier posts, I discussed some statistics which describe how runs are scored: (1) Baseball Prospectus' Others Batted In Percentage statistic which is the percent of runners on base which a batter drives in; (2) Runs Assisted which is the number of runs to which a batted contributed without getting a run scored or RBI. In this post, I'll talk about other things that can happen in a plate appearance where there are runners on base.  

The events that can occur when batters are presented with base runners can be put into two broad categories (Advancement and Non-advancement) and five sub-categories.  There are three types of Advances (ADV):

• Other Batted In (OBI) - A base runner is driven in by the batter.  It's the same thing as an RBI except a player does not get credit for driving himself in with a home run.

• Run Assisted (RAS) - A batter advances a runner to either second or third with a hit, base on balls, hit batsmen, error, sacrifice bunt, or another kind of out.  If that runner then scores either during the same at bat or an ensuing at bat, the batter who advanced him is given a Run Assisted.

• Unrewarded Advancement (UNR) - A batter advances a runner, but the runner does not score by the end of the inning.  

When I first presented the Runs Assisted metric, I also included a second part to the definition: "A batter reaches base and is removed for a pinch runner or is replaced by another runner on a force out.  If the new runner then scores, the batter who originally reached base is given a Run Assisted".   Here, I am only looking at whether a batter advances base runners, so the second portion is excluded.

There are two types of Non-advances (NADV):

• Neutral (NEU) - A batter does not advance a runner, but there are no outs on the play. (e.g. a walk with a runner on second)

• Giveaway (GA) - A batter fails to advance a runner and one or more outs are made either at the plate or on the bases.

It is possible to have an Advance and a Giveaway in the same plate appearance.  For example, a batter comes up with runners on first and second and hits into a force out at second advancing the runner to third.  In that case, he gets credit for a Giveaway for the first runner and an Advance (either a RAS or UNR) for the second runner.  These statistics are discussed further in the comments section of a post at Tom Tango's Book Blog.  I basically followed his algorithm presented in comment #31. I have not yet programmed the odd-ball occurrences discussed, but they should not change the results too much.   

Table 1 below shows that there were 55,844 runners on base in all American League plate appearances in 2013. A total of 21,000 (or 37.6%) were advanced including Others Batted In (13.5%), Runs Assisted (10.5%) and Unrewarded Advances (13.6%).  There were 34,844 Non-advances (62.4%) including Neutrals (4.3%) and Giveaways (58.2%).   The National League percentages were similar. 

Table 1: Advancement of Runners by League , 2012

League	American		National
Category	n	%	n	%
Baserunners	55,884	100.0	54,513
Advances	21,000	37.6	20,536	37.7
Others Batted In	7,525	13.5	7,086	13.0
Runs Assisted	5,880	10.5	5,606	10.3
Unrewarded Advances	7,595	13.6	7,844	14.4
Non-advances	34,884	62.4	33,977	62.3
Neutrals	2,382	4.3	2,595	4.8
Giveaways	32,502	58.2	31,382	57.6

These counting statistics are not a replacement for Batting Runs or True Average or any of your other favorite batting evaluation statistics.  Their primary purpose is to fill gaps in baseball data collection.  I find it interesting to know how successful a batter was in advancing runners and how often he failed.  In a more sophisticated analysis, these statistics might possibly have some practical use in building batting orders or in looking at the age-old clutch questions.  This post only serves as an introduction to some new statistical categories.

Table 2 shows that Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips advanced more runners (220) than any player in baseball in 2013.  The American League leader was Tigers first baseman Prince Fielder with 215.  Does it seem like Fielder was the best in the league at advancing runners last year?  If it doesn't feel that way to you, there's a reason for it. Table 3 tells us that Fielder also failed to advance a league-leading 321 base runners.  If we remove Neutrals from the equation (as many of those are walks where the batter has not given any good pitches to hit), Fielder still led with 294 giveaways. 

                                     Table 2: Runners Advanced Leaders, 2013

Player	Team	OBI	RAS	Unrewarded	Advances
Brandon Phillips	Cincinnati	85	63	72	220
Prince Fielder	Detroit	81	50	84	215
Paul Goldschmidt	Arizona	89	48	69	206
Miguel Cabrera	Detroit	93	51	59	203
Joey Votto	Cincinnati	49	80	73	202
Dustin Pedroia	Boston	75	69	57	201
Robinson Cano	New York	80	45	73	198
Adrian Gonzalez	Los Angeles	78	52	64	194
Matt Holliday	St. Louis	72	69	52	193
Hunter Pence	San Francisco	72	38	82	192

Table 3: Non-Advancement Leaders, 2013

Player	Team	Neutrals	Giveaways	Non-advances
Prince Fielder	Detroit	27	294	321
Jay Bruce	Cincinnati	41	274	315
Victor Martinez	Detroit	22	291	313
Hunter Pence	San Francisco	14	279	293
Pedro Alvarez	Pittsburgh	25	268	293
Mike Napoli	Boston	26	264	290
Josh Hamilton	Los Angeles	17	270	287
Mark Trumbo	Los Angeles	19	268	287
Adrian Beltre	Texas	24	260	284
Dustin Pedroia	Boston	19	258	277

 

Fielder leading the league in both advances and non-advances tells us something about these new measures. They are counting statistics like RBI which are dependent on opportunity and nobody had more chances with runners on base than Fielder batting behind MVP Miguel Cabrera. So, it's useful to compute a rate.  There are several ways that could be done, but one simple one is Advance Percentage (ADV%).  

Table 4 indicates that Cardinals first baseman Allen Craig advanced 184 of 348 base runners (excluding neutral plate appearances) for a .508 percentage.  This was the top percentage among players with 200 or more base runners in their plate appearances.  The trailers are shown in Table 5 led by Braves outfielder B.J. Upton at .258. 

Table 4: Advance Percentage Leaders, 2013

Player	Team	Base runners	Advances	%
Allen Craig	St. Louis	348	184	.508
Matt Holliday	St. Louis	363	193	.501
Robinson Cano	New York	369	198	.497
Shane Victorino	Boston	271	139	.488
Matt Carpenter	St. Louis	289	147	.479
Freddie Freeman	Atlanta	366	188	.475
Adrian Gonzalez	Los Angeles	403	194	.464
Yadier Molina	St. Louis	333	160	.461
Jason Kipnis	Cleveland	371	178	.460
Torii Hunter	Detroit	409	190	.459
Joey Votto	Cincinnati	398	202	.458
Paul Goldschmidt	Arizona	409	206	.458
Josh Donaldson	Oakland	381	189	.458
Miguel Cabrera	Detroit	405	203	.456
Erick Aybar	Los Angeles	323	148	.454

 

 Table 5: Advance Percentage Trailers, 2013 

Player	Team	Base runners	Advances	%
B.J. Upton	Atlanta	255	69	.258
J.P. Arencibia	Toronto	299	82	.271
Rajai Davis	Toronto	214	62	.284
Dan Uggla	Atlanta	296	92	.285
Jedd Gyorko	San Diego	326	97	.287
Alfonso Soriano	Chicago	225	69	.294
Raul Ibanez	Seattle	274	84	.296
Lucas Duda	New York	202	68	.298
Chris Young	Oakland	244	75	.299
Will Middlebrooks	Boston	235	74	.301

 

 The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.  Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at Retrosheet.org.