Ten Predictions for Tigers Batters

Yesterday, I presented ten predictions for the Tigers pitching staff.  Today, I'll do the same for the batters:

• Catcher Alex Avila's batting average will drop from last year, but his power and walks will remain the same.  He'll be one of the top offensive catchers in the game with a .265/.360/.475 line.  The hard-working backstop will also improve his defense, specifically pitch blocking.

• New first baseman Prince Fielder will crush balls the same way in the American League as he did in the National League.  His final line will be .280/.395/.545 with 37 home runs. 

• The revolving door at second will continue again this year as the Tigers search for the right balance of offense and defense at the keystone position.  The enigmatic Ryan Raburn will get more action at second than anyone else, but Ramon Santiago and Dannny Worth will also play.  Raburn will finally put together two solid halves batting .270/.335/.470 with 20 homers in 475 plate appearances.  His poor second-base defense will compel manager Jim Leyland to also use him at designated hitter and in the outfield depending on pitching match-ups.

• There has been little talk about shortstop Johnny Peralta this spring which probably speaks well of him.  He won't repeat last year's performance but will still be an above average offensive shortstop batting .260 with 18 homers.

• As is his routine, Miguel Cabrera will have another boring MVP-caliber season at the plate - .330/.420/.590 with 35 home runs.  Defensively, he will be a poor third baseman, but will survive the season.  He will often see action at designated hitter when the Tigers have a ground ball pitcher on the mound.

• Right fielder Brennan Boesch will hit the way he did last year, except with more playing time.  He will be prone to streakiness, but look for him to bat .275 with 22 home runs in 525 at bats.

• Center fielder Austin Jackson will continue to strikeout (175 of them) and not get on base (.320 OBP) while playing excellent defense.  He will increase his power output to 15 homers and 50 extra base hits for the season.

• Delmon Young will split time between left field and designated hitter while batting in the enviable fifth position behind Cabrera and Fielder.  He will hit for an unspectacular .750 OPS but drive in 105 runs given the copious supply of base runners.  This will lead to lively debates between sabers and traditionalists regarding his true value.

•  The Tigers will struggle to get consistent production out of a ninth hitter.  Outfielder Andy Dirks will get the most opportunities reaching base at a .310 clip and hitting 13 homers in 250 at bats. 

• The Tigers will score 795 runs in 2012.  This will be fourth in the league behind four teams playing in better hitting environments - Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox. 

Omir Santos Assigned to Minor League Camp

The Tigers assigned catcher Omir Santos to minor league camp this morning.  This, of course, is no surprise.  The main reason he was in major league camp so long was because the Tigers needed an extra catcher to work with all the pitchers on the spring roster.   

The 30-year old Santos has batted .252 with a .656 OPS in 318 plate appearances over three major league seasons.  His claim to fame is his appearance for the Tigers in the 2011 playoffs versus the Yankees.  He entered game four in the ninth inning as a defensive replacement for catcher Alex Avila, but never came to bat.   

The move leaves the Tigers with 30 players in camp, so there are five more "cuts" to go.  One of them will be putting reliever Al Alburquerque on the disabled list.  Other than that, nothing is certain yet, but it appears as if infielder Brandon Inge and outfielder Clete Thomas will not be heading for Detroit. 

Pitcher Drew Smyly will probably be in the starting rotation, but may start the season in Toledo as the Tigers won't need a fifth starter until April 14.  Assuming everything goes as I have described above, the final cut would be one of three pitchers - Duane Below, Luis Marte and Brayan Villareal.    

Ten Predictions for the Tigers Pitching Staff

With the regular season just one week away, it's time for my annual forecasts for the Tigers.  I'll start with ten predictions for the pitching staff:

• It doesn't take a complex projection system to figure out that Justin Verlander will have a difficult time repeating his Cy Young/ MVP performance of 2011.  He'll still be a dominant ace though with 250 strikeouts and a 2.75 ERA in 250 innings.  Since I know people will ask about wins, I'll go out on a sturdy limb and say he won't win 24 again this year.  Backed by a strong offense, he will reach an even 20 wins.

• Max Scherzer will continue to have periods when his mechanics are out of whack, but should be on his game more often in 2012.  I'll give him a 3.90 ERA with 175 strikeouts in 200 innings.

• Doug Fister will not be quite as good as his 1.79 ERA and 57/5 K/BB ratio down the stretch for the Tigers last year.  He won't even be as strong as his 2.89 ERA for the season.  He will however overcome a suspect infield defense to post a 3.50 ERA.  His 1.5 walks per nine innings will place him in the top three in the American League.

• It's easy to forget that Rick Porcello is just 23 year old with time to improve.  He will up his strikeout rate from 5.1 to 5.7 while maintaining very good ground ball and walk rates.  He will pitch deeper into games and reach 200 innings for the first time.  The ground ball pitcher will find the Tigers infield to be a challenge though and his ERA will be still be a little high at 4.25.

• The weak link of the Tigers rotation will be the fifth starter.  They will use several pitchers in that role beginning with Drew Smyly, but Jacob Turner will ultimately secure the role by the second half.  Turner will have his good moments, but will end up with a 4.50 ERA in 90 innings.

• Jose Valverde will not be perfect in save situations again this year, but he will be better in non-save situations.  He will finish with a 2.90 ERA and 45 saves in 50 opportunities.

• Joaquin Benoit will be the best Tigers reliever statistically in 2012 with a 70/20 K/BB ratio and 2.65 ERA.

• Octavio Dotel will do a nice job getting the game to Benoit and Valverde posting a 3.60 ERA in 60 innings.

• The rest of the bullpen will be shaky.  Al Alburquerque will battle to recover from elbow surgery, but won't be able to regain his 2011 magic.  Phil Coke will be the best southpaw in the pen but will be erratic with an ERA north of 4.00.

• The entire staff will allow 680 runs which will be a distant third best in the AL to the Angels and Rays. 

Is Today's Tigers Line-up the Real Thing?

Manager Jim Leyland said he wanted to stop the line-up shuffling as spring training winds down and will keep today's starters in the game for seven innings.  Tonight's line-up is as follows:

Austin Jackson CF
Brennan Boesch RF
Don Kelly 3B
Prince Fielder 1B
Delmon Young DH
Alex Avila C
Jhonny Peralta SS
Andy Dirks LF
Ryan Raburn 2B

Other than Kelly subbing for the recuperating Miguel Cabrera at third base, this is the same line-up which Leyland proposed at the Fielder press conference.  The only thing he hedged about at the time was who would bat eighth.  I'm thinking this could be the most common real starting line-up once the season starts.   

Andy Oliver Optioned to Toledo

The Tigers announced this morning that left-handed reliever Andy Oliver was optioned to Triple-A Toledo.  That leaves four pairs of players battling for the last four spots on the opening day roster.  Here is how the remaining position battles look:

Fifth Starter

Duane Below
Drew Smyly


Manager Jim Leyland was impressed by Smyly's performance versus the Cardinals yesterday and he appears to be the front runner at the moment.  In the long run, top prospect Jacob Turner is likely being prepared to take the fifth starter role and probably would have gone north with the team if it were not for shoulder tendinitis early in the spring.      


Seventh Reliever
Luis Marte
Brayan Villareal


This is a toss up, but I'm leaning towards Marte who has shown better control this spring.  There is also a chance that Below could join the team as a reliever if he is not going to be a starter. 


Back-up Outfielder
Andy Dirks
Clete Thomas


I said at the beginning of the spring that Thomas was the favorite because he's out of options and is the superior defender.  I'm starting to waver though.  They are certainly giving him an opportunity for playing time this spring, but he has continued to struggle offensively.  Dirks has had an excellent spring, so it's going to be hard to not bring him north.

Infielder 
Brandon Inge
Danny Worth


Worth appears to be the logical choice given his ability to play all three infield positions.  I doubt he'll hit much but Inge won't either.  The Tigers beat writers have been tweeting quite a bit the last couple of days about the possibility of an Inge trade.  I'll doubt they'll be able to trade him, so a release might be in order.