Damon Among Best Baserunners in 2009

A couple of years ago, I developed the bases gained above average (BGAA) algorithm to determine the best and worst baserunners in the game. The algorithm was built upon a system presented in the 2007 Bill James Handbook. In the BGAA system, runners receive credit for the following:

• advancing an extra base on a hit (i.e. going from first to third on a single, second to home on a single or first to home on a double)
  

• advancing on a ground out

• advancing on an air out

• stealing a base

• advancing on a wild pitch, passed ball or balk

They lose points for the following:

• running into an out on a hit, ground out or air out

• getting picked off or caught stealing

• otherwise running into an out on the bases

It works as follows: Elvis Andrus of the Rangers had 41 opportunities to advance an extra base on a hit in 2009. He was successful 20 times and was never thrown out. The average runner was successful 35% of the time. So, you would expect him to take an extra base roughly 14 (.35 x 41) times. Thus, Andrus gained 6 bases over what would would be expected from an average runner.

Similar calculations are done for other events (ground outs, air outs, other base running) with points subtracted for outs on the bases. At the end, everything is summed to get bases gained above average (BGAA). The full algorithm can be found here.

The American League BGAA leaders in 2009 are shown in Table 1. You can see that recently acquired Johnny Damon finished seventh in the league at 18.9 bases above average.

Table1: American League BGAA Leaders, 2009

Ellsbury, Bos......... 34.9
Getz, Chi............... 27.0
Kinsler, Tex........... 24.4
Bartlett, TB........... 22.6
Davis, Oak............ 21.7
Punto, Min........... 20.4
Damon, NYA....... 18.9
Andrus, Tex.......... 18.2
Bautista, Tor........ 18.0
Gardner, NYA..... 17.9

Some information used in this figure was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at 20 Sunset Rd., Newark, DE 19711.

This system does come with a caveat. In the BGAA system, every type of base advancement is treated the same. In reality, base advancement is more likely in some situations than others. Specifically, the probability of advancement on hits, ground outs and air outs changes according to the numbers of outs and the location of batted balls. The equivalent base running runs (EqBRR) statistic at BaseballProspectus.com does take those things into consideration.

Damon had an EqBRR of 2.9 runs above average. He ranked lower on the EqBRR system - 21st in the league - than he did on the BGAA system. Still, he finished higher than any Tiger on either system. The leading Tigers baserunner in 2009 was Adam Everett - 10.3 BGAA and 2.1 EqBRR.

Busy Schedule

As many of you know, I spent the winter finishing my book Beyond Batting Average. Hence, I didn't do as much analysis on Tiger Tales as I usually do in the off-season. Along with promoting my book, I now have two other projects which will take priority over my blog this season.

First, I am covering the Tigers for John Burnson's Heater Magazine. Heater is a subscription fantasy baseball news site. If you are just looking for news on the Tigers, then Heater is probably not for you. However, if you are into fantasy baseball, I would recommend checking it out. You can see a sample issue or purchase a subscription here.

My newest project will be writing about relief pitchers from a fantasy baseball perspective at Baseball Prospectus. This is a collaboration between Heater and Baseball Prospectus. It will be part of BP's premium content. You can read more about it here.

I will continue to post at Tiger Tales but, for the time being, it will be difficult for me to continue the volume of analysis I have done in the past. I will comment on all the big news and will do an analysis here and there but it won't be as regular as it has been in past years.

Casey Fien Removed from Roster

The Tigers designated reliever Casey Fien for assignment yesterday to make room for Johnny Damon on the 40 man roster. This means that Fien will now either be traded, lost to another team through waivers or outrighted to AAA. Any team that acquires Fien on waivers will have to add him to its 40 man roster. Chances are Fien will remain in the Tigers organization.

The right-handed Fien had a 7.91 ERA in 11 1/3 innings for the Tigers last year. He did, however, have a solid season for AAA Toledo posting a 3.41 ERA and 66/15 K/BB ratio in 58 innings. Fien is not a top prospect at age 26 but has always good control in the minors and could see time in the majors again this year.

Internet Radio Interview

Last night, I appeared on The Knee Jerks with hosts Greg Eno and Big Al Beaton. Jennifer Cosey, who writes the underrated Tigers blog Old English D, was also on the show. We talked about Johnny Damon, spring training and other topics. I haven't heard it yet but it was a fun interview. If nothing else, you get to hear my Massachusetts accent.

Tigers sign Damon to One Year Deal

After weeks of rumors, the Tigers finally signed Johnny Damon to a one year $8 million deal today. Damon will likely play left field on most days and will either leadoff or bat second depending on the readiness of rookie center fielder Austin Jackson. More importantly, Damon gives the Tigers a badly needed left-handed bat. Prior to the signing, the only projected starter batting from the left side was switch hitting Carlos Guillen.

Speaking of Guillen, the next hurdle for the Tigers may be convincing him that he's a designated hitter. Guillen has made it clear that he wants to play in the field regularly but, with the signing of Damon, the DH spot would appear to be his only position most days.

The move also leaves Ryan Raburn without a position but he'll likely amass 400 plate appearances as the fourth outfielder and second DH. The one who might be out of a major league job, at least at the beginning of the season, is Clete Thomas. With Brandon Inge and Scott Sizemore both coming off surgery, the Tigers may want to go with someone like Don Kelly who can play the infield.