Worst Base Running Team in Baseball

If you follow the Tigers closely, you have surely figured out that base running is not one of their strengths.  From Alex Avila to Miguel Cabrera to Victor Martinez and beyond, the Tigers are just not built for speed.  Even if you don't watch very often, you may have noticed that no Tiger reached double figures in stolen bases this year.  The last time they failed to have one player reach ten stolen bases was in 1973  when a team of aging stars such as Norm Cash, Bill Freehan and Al Kaline combined for just 28 stolen bases.

This year's team stole just 35 bases with 20 caught stealing for a mediocre 64% success rate.  Base running is more than just stealing bases though.  For example, a player can move from first to third on a single (or fail to do so) or advance a base on a fly ball. Baseball Prospectus uses a complex algorithm to track all kinds of base running advancement.  The BP base running statistics created by Dan Fox (now a statistician for the Pirates) include the following (all expressed in terms of runs above average):

• GAR (Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs) - Contribution of advancement on ground outs.

• SBR (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs) - contribution of stolen bases including runs subtracted for caught stealings and pickoffs.

• AAR (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs) - Contribution of base runners advancing on fly outs

• HAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) - contribution of runners taking the extra base on a hit: first to third on a single, second to home on a single, first to home on a double.

• OAR (Equivalent Other Advancement Runs) - contribution of other base running advancements - passed balls, wild pitches and balks (evidence shows that those events are not entirely randomly and are influenced by base runners to an extent).

• BRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs)- the sum of the five above statistics above or total base running contribution.

Note that players are penalized for making outs and also for not advancing when the average base runner would have been expected to do so.

The Tigers scored runs on the bases as follows in 2013:

GAR = -8.16 estimated runs above (below in their case) average on ground outs
SBR = -0.90 on base stealing
AAR = -4.65 on fly ball outs
HAR = -7.52 taking the extra base on hits
OAR = -0.32 on other events
BRR = -21.5 total base running runs below average

So, the Tigers were below average in all types of base running plays and were especially deficient at advancing on ground outs (last in baseball), fly balls (last) and hits (second to last).  The BRR number tells us that base running cost the Tigers an estimated 22 runs compared to the average team with the same opportunities.  This was by far the worst total in the majors.  

Individually, lead-off man Austin Jackson was the Tigers best base runner with 4.7 BRR (See Table 1).  Not surprisingly though, most of their regulars were under zero meaning they cost the team runs with their base running.  The worst runners were Martinez (-5.9) and Fielder (-5.3).

Table 1: Tigers Base Running Runs, 2013

Team	BRR
Jackson	4.7
Hunter	0.9
Infante	0.4
Iglesias	-0.5
Dirks	-2.3
Avila	-2.5
Cabrera	-2.7
Peralta	-2.7
Pena	-2.8
Tuiasosopo	-3.1
Fielder	-5.3
Martinez	-5.9

Data Source: BaseballProspectus.com


Table 2 below shows that the Tigers were not the only playoff team that was below average in base running, but they cost themselves 17 more runs than the Braves who were second worst base running team to reach post-season.  The best base running team among post-season clubs was the Cardinals with 14.3 BRR led by major league leader Matt Carpenter (8.6).  

Table 2: Base Running Runs for Playoff Teams, 2013

Team	BRR
St. Louis	14.3
Boston	4.0
Oakland	1.1
Los Angeles	-0.6
Pittsburgh	-3.3
Tampa Bay	-4.5
Atlanta	-5.3
Detroit	-21.5

Data Source: BaseballProspectus.com

Fortunately, the Tigers were able to score plenty of runs without the benefit of speed as they finished second in the American League with a .780 OPS and 4.9 runs scored per game.  On the downside, it's not as easy to hit in the post-season when you're facing strong pitchers most nights.  Thus, the ability to manufacture runs probably becomes a little more important.  The Tigers won't be stealing many runs though, so they will have to continue to hit for average and power in order to score runs in post-season,. 

Do Tigers Have Enough Relievers for Post-Season?

Nobody, whether it be local fans or national observers, doubts the excellence of the Tigers Tigers starting rotation heading into post-season.  The big four - Cy Young Award favorite Max Scherzer, American League Earned Run Average leader Anibal Sanchez, former Most Valuable Player and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and rock solid Doug Fister - stand tall among America League pitchers by any measure.  If you like to look at innings and runs allowed, then all four All four rank in AL top fifteen in Pitching Runs. If you prefer to try to strip away factors such as team fielding which are largely beyond a pitcher's control, then they look even better with all four ranked in the top ten in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).

Not only do the Detroit starters have great regular season numbers this year, they also have past playoff success.  The quartet combined for an impressive 1.90 ERA in the 2013 post-season including a fantastic 1.30 ERA against the Athletics, their first round opponent again this year. 

Any questions about the Tigers pitching are about the bullpen.  They started the year without a real closer and eventually were forced to move set-up man Joaquin Benoit into that role.  They have been challenged by injuries to once reliable veteran Octavio Dotel and left-hander Darin Downs and disappointing seasons from the once amazing Al Alburquerque,last year's post-season closer Phil Coke and Venezuelan right hander Brayan Villarreal. 

While the Tigers bullpen has lacked depth, Benoit has been successful as a closer and young southpaw Drew Smyly, who could start for many teams, has done well in a variety of roles from long reliever to lefty specialist.  How good have they been?  Statistical evaluation of relievers is difficult for a couple of reasons:

1. They pitch so few innings that their statistics can be influenced heavily by a couple of really bad outings.
2. Their actual value depends on game situations more than any other player.

Using ERA to evaluate relievers is problematic because relievers often make appearances with runners on base and give up other pitchers' runs. So, a pitcher could have a low ERA without actually being that effective. The FIP statstic  which is based on walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed rather than runs allowed is better but it still does not consider the game environments in which a reliever pitched.

The RE24 (runs saved above average by the 24 base/out states) metric estimates the number of runs a pitcher saved or cost his team based on his numbers of singles, doubles and all other events allowed including outs, but also considers the situations in which these events happened.  For example, if Smyly enters a game with two men on base and nobody out and retires the side he will get more credit than if he comes in with the bases empty.  Smyly gets more points in the first scenario because there was greater potential for run scoring.  Thus, Smyly saves the Tigers more runs if he frequently pitches well with runners on base than if he always starts an appearance with the bases empty.

The RE24 leaders among American League playoff relievers are shown in Table 1 below.  Benoit (21.4) and
Smyly (17.0) trail only Red Sox closer Koji Uehara (25.9).  So, the Tigers are very strong at the end of the bullpen.  What the Tigers lack is depth especially with promising rookie fire baller Bruce Rondon out of the first round with a tender elbow.  The only other healthy reliever with a RE24 above 0 is Jose Veras (0.5).

Table 1: RE24 Leaders Among AL Playoff Relievers

Pitcher	Team	RE24
Uehara	Bos	25.9
Benoit	Det	21.4
Smyly	Det	17.0
Peralta	TB	14.9
Torres	TB	14.7
Breslow	Bos	14.5
Smith	Cle	13.2
Doolittle	Oak	12.9
Tazawa	Bos	10.4
Shaw	Cle	8.7

  Data source: FanGraphs.com

While the Tigers don't really have reliable relievers beyond Benoit and Smyly and to some extent Veras, bullpen depth in the playoffs can be a little less important in post-season than the regular season.  All the days off during the post-season will allow them to use fifth starter Rick Porcello as a middle or long reliever.  Porcello had an unremarkable 4.32 ERA, but he was an improved pitcher this year and should be an asset as a reliever.  Thanks largely to an improved change-up and scrapping his slider in favor of a curve ball, Porcello's strikeout rate has risen from 5.5 in 2012 to 7.2 this year and his FIP has dropped from 3.91 to 3.53.

Additionally, manager Jim Leyland has hinted that Verlander, the second-game starter, could pitch in relief in Game five if necessary.  So, the Tigers bullpen is not a strength particularly if they experience a long extra-inning game, but it's not a big weakness either.  I expect, they'll have enough quality relievers to get through the post-season just fine.