Guillen to Bat Sixth if Healthy

According to Steve Kornacki at MLive, Jim Leyland said this morning that Carlos Guillen will bat sixth if he's healthy at the beginning of the season:

“If Carlos is healthy and ready to go I’d like to bat him behind Victor,” Leyland said.He likes the thought of having a pair of veteran switch-hitters behind Cabrera to confound late-inning pitching changes and for their proven run-production abilities.

Guillen being healthy is always a big "if" but Lynn Henning writes that he is in good shape and may be ahead of schedule. 

With Austin Jackson leading off, and Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez batting in the three through five spots, the question is: Who will bat second? Leyland's answer was:

“Whoever makes the team,”

What does he mean by that? He could be trying to avoid the question or perhaps he doesn't want to give any young or developing players the impression that they have won a job.   Anyway, if Guillen is playing second base, then I think the obvious choice for the second slot in the order would be Ryan Raburn. In that case, the line-up would look like this:


Jackson CF
Raburn LF
Ordonez RF
Cabrera 1B
Martinez DH
Guillen 2B
Peralta SS
Inge 3B
Avila C

Even if he's healthy, I suspect Guillen would only be playing second base four or five games per week.  Perhaps, he would be designated hitter versus left-handed starters.  This might yield the following line-up

Jackson CF
Raburn LF
Ordonez RF
Cabrera 1B
Martinez C
Guillen DH
Peralta SS
Inge 3B
Rhymes/Sizemore 2B

Regardless, if Guillen is playing and there are no surprises (like a long rehab for Cabrera), I can't see anybody else that makes sense over Raburn in the second spot. 

Of course, we don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves here.  Guillen staying healthy for a full season would certainly be a nice bonus, but not something I'd expect.

What's Next for Cabrera?

It's spring training and I'd rather talk about baseball, but the biggest issue on Tigers fans minds right now is Miguel Cabrera's alcohol problem.  He is currently back home in Boca Raton, Florida after being charged with a DUI Thursday morning.  By all accounts, he is in excellent physical shape and would like to be in Lakeland working out with teammates right now, but he'll have to wait.

Early next week, the Tigers first baseman will meet with doctors selected by MLB and the player's union to decide the next course of action. General Manager Dave Dombrowski reports that Cabrera understands that he has an alcohol problem and is being very cooperative:

"He's cooperative and realizes he's had an alcohol problem in the past that he's addressed and has worked through, and he fell off of that program," Dombrowski said. "He acknowledges that and he will do what's necessary to get back on track. But I will also say he's extremely down. He wants to be here. He feels terrible but he understands the importance of making sure that this is properly evaluated." 

The Tigers slugger already underwent outpatient treatment for a few months at the end of 2009 following his late season drinking incident that year. It may have worked for a while, but this relapse could prompt further action.

There are a few different courses of treatment Cabrera could take. He could start off in a detoxification program for a week or two if necessary.  It does sound as if he is functioning well enough where that would not be necessary though.  Another possibility is that he would go in into inpatient treatment which could last a month or more.  It also might be a matter of more outpatient treatment or Alcoholics Anonymous meetings. It's possible they will decide that he doesn't need treatment at this time, but that seems unlikely.

How long will he be out if he needs treatment?  If it's something like AA then he probably wouldn't miss time.  If he needs intensive inpatient treatment, then he won't be able play for a while.

There is some recent precedent of alcohol treatment for a major league player.  Last year, Dodgers reliever Ronald Belisario was late for spring training after he was charged with a DUI in his native Venezuela and could not secure a work Visa.  That is not quite the same as Cabrera's situation.  However, later in the year, Belisario was placed on the restricted list when he entered substance abuse treatment.  As a result, he missed a month of action between early July and early August.   

If Cabrera follows the same course as Belisario, he could go into treatment next week and be out shortly before spring training ends.  In that case, he would miss very little of the regular season if any.  He would probably require follow up treatment on an outpatient basis after that, but it probably wouldn't require him to miss much time.

I still don't expect this problem to affect the baseball season much.  I expect him to play and to hit like he always does.  I also trust that Jim Leyland won't let the situation become too much of a distraction to the team.

Speaking as a baseball fan, I don't think we'll be affected too much by this situation other than tiring of hearing about it.  Speaking as as a compassionate human being, I hope he gets help for his sake and his family's sake.

Cabrera Arrested for DUI

Things were looking really positive in the opening days of spring training. The Tigers had a productive off-season, most of the key players were reportedly in good health and all seemed well in Lakeland.  That all changed this morning when Miguel Cabrera was arrested for Driving Under the Influence of alcohol.

This is the second major incident involving Cabrera, the other one being the notorious confrontation with his wife occurring at the end of the 2009 season.  In today's arrest, he was reportedly uncooperative and confrontational with police and even continued to drink in front of the officers as he was being arrested.  This is a drinking problem that probably requires intervention and we can only hope he gets help at some point.

Unfair or not, the biggest concern for baseball fans is how his problems will affect his ability to play baseball. It sure doesn't seem as if it has hurt him as a player to this point. All you have to do is look at his numbers to see that.  If he hits .328 and slugs 38 home runs again next year, most of us will forget about his drinking incidents. You've got to think think that it could get to him eventually though and prevent him from having a long career.

How will the Tigers deal with it? Will they suspend him? Require him to go to rehabilitation? It seems unlikely that they'll let their star hitter and $20 million man miss much time, if any.  Of immediate concern is whether this latest incident could be a distraction to a team that seemed to have a lot of good things going for it this spring.
 
Instead of hearing reports on the second base battle or whether Brad Penny and Phil Coke can fill out the rotation, all we are going to hear about is Cabrera's drinking problem all spring. Hopefully, that's the worst that comes out of this.

Handicapping the Second Base Race

Scott Sizemore Hopes to Start on Opening Day (Photo courtesy of Roger Dewitt/hueytaxi)
(Edit: I think the picture I had up there earlier was not Scott Sizemore)

There is only one real positional battle in the Detroit Tigers camp this spring.  They are apparently all set at catcher, first base, shortstop, third base, all three outfield positions and designated hitter.  Even the starting rotation is pretty much engraved in stone barring injuries or implosions.  The only starting job to be settled is second base.

General manager Dave Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland have both said that Carlos Guillen will be the second baseman when he recovers from micro-fracture surgery on his knee, but he is not expected to be ready at the beginning of the season.  With his injury history, there is also no telling how long he can stay healthy once he gets back.  So, you've got to believe that the Tigers are hoping that somebody else will seize the job both short-term and long-term.

The main candidates are Scott Sizemore, Will Rhymes and Danny Worth.  Sizemore was given the job last year after Placido Polanco entered free agency and signed with the Phillies.  However, Sizemore broke his ankle in the Arizona Fall League and was not fully recovered for the regular season.  As a result, he was never comfortable at the plate or in the field as a Tiger and ended up back in Toledo.  He is now reportedly fully healthy and ready for a second chance.  He is the only one of the middle infielders with power and has the best overall upside.  Thus, I'll consider him a little better than even money favorite to win the starting spot.

Will Rhymes took the starting job last year after Sizemore failed and Guillen was injured.  He made good contact and played a steady second base down the stretch.  He's a left-handed batter on a team that needs left-handed bats.  The scrappy infielder is also a favorite of Leyland.  However, he lacks the power of Sizemore and some believed he played over his head last year.  It's impossible to root against the fan-friendly and computer-savvy Rhymes, but he does not have the potential of Sizemore.  I'll say that he has a one out of three shot at claiming the open spot.

Danny Worth is a better defender than either Sizemore or Rhymes and the Tigers certainly could use some defense up the middle with the steady but immoble Jhonny Peralta at shortstop.  Worth is a weak hitter though and his fielding is probably not strong enough to offset his offensive shortcomings.  He profiles as a utility player and is a long shot to win the starting job.

If all else fails, there is always Ramon Santiago.  The Tigers know what he can do - he'll play solid defense and provide passable offense.  They've always regarded him as a utility player though and that's probably what he'll be again this year.

Finally, I'll throw out a long long shot - Brandon Douglas.  The twenty-five-year-old rookie has a lifetime minor league batting average of .331 including .359 in 35 games at double-A Erie last year. He's a decent prospect who may have a future in Detroit, but he will almost surely head to the minors again this year.

So, Sizemore is the early favorite, but there is plenty of competition and this battle could go down to the final week of spring training. 

Table 1: Probability of Being the Starting Second baseman on Opening Day

Player	Percent
Scott Sizemore	55%
Will Rhymes	30%
Danny Worth	10%
Ramon Santiago	3%
Carlos Guillen	1%
Brandon Douglas	1%

Pitchers and Catchers Report

Rick Porcello and Justin Verlander in Lakeland. (Photo courtesy of Roger Dewitt/hueytaxi) 

One of the sweetest phrases for a baseball fan...Pitchers and catchers are reporting to Lakeland today.  Many have actually been there for a while, but today is the day they are officially required to be there.

This means that the end of the long cold winter - one of the worst in years in many parts of the country - is near.  Opening day is more than six weeks away, but the thought of pitchers and catcher's reporting to Florida and Arizona makes you feel the warmth of a summer night at the ballpark. 

Every injury prone veteran is healthy and in the best shape of his life.  Every rookie pitcher has a new pitch and is ready to blossom.  Every manager thinks the atmosphere in camp is the best he's seen in all his years.  Every fan's favorite team is in first place and is a legitimate contender for the playoffs.

This is the year Rick Porcello breaks out and becomes a dominant pitcher.  Phil Coke is going to adjust just fine to his new role as starter.  Brad Penny is going to be healthy this year.  We know that because he's already in the best shape of his life.  Joel Zumaya is finally going to make it through a full-season and be the pitcher he was in 2006

Ryan Raburn is going to put together two good halves.  Scott Sizemore is a new man this year - healthy and confident and primed to seize the second base job.  And even if he doesn't they'll be fine because Carlos Guillen is going to be healthy and Will Rhymes is solid.  Austin Jackson's going to be even better this year.  Alex Avila will be the most improved young catcher in baseball.

Everything is right with the world today and the Tigers are going all the way this year.