Giving Cabrera Credit for his Intentional Walks

In a recent FanGraphs article, Dave Cameron discussed how Miguel Cabrera has not been as valuable as some of his numbers might indicate.  His reasoning was that Cabrera has been walked intentionally 30 times and intentional walks are not as valuable as non-intentional walks:

Intentional walks are issued in situations where the opposing team believes it is more valuable to have the batter on first base than at the plate. It is a strategic move, based on the situation at hand, that is aimed at reducing the offense’s chance of scoring a run, or multiple runs, in a given inning. 

From the examination of thousands of games , it has been determined that the average non-intentional walk (NIBB) contributes about 0.33 runs.  In other words, if one NIBB is added to a team’s total in each game for 100 games, that team would be expected to add 33 runs to their season total.   An intentional walk (IBB), on the other hand contributes about 0.18 runs on average (according to The Book by Tom Tango, Michel Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin).  Other events have the following approximate values (called linear weights):

HBP 0.33

1B .47

2B .77

3B 1.04

HR 1.40

Out –.27

These linear weights can be inserted into a formula to calculate Batting Runs (BR):

BR = 0.33 x NIBB + 0.18 x IBB + 0.33 x HBP + 0.47 x 1B + 0.77 x 2B + 1.04 x 3B + 1.40 x HR – 0.27 X Outs

Sometimes, other events such as errors, stolen bases and caught stealing are included in the formula, but those are not needed for this particular discussion.   Cabrera had the following numbers as of yesterday:

NIBB 55

IBB 30

HBP 3

1B 90

2B 45

3B 1

HR 34

Outs 342

According to the above formula, Cabrera had 57.8 BR heading into today’s action.  This tells us that he has contributed 57.8 runs above what an average batter would have been expected to contribute given the same number of outs.  Suppose, we did not distinguish between NIBB’s and IBBS and credited Cabrera 0.33 runs for all of his walks.  In that case, we would add 30 x .15 = 4.5 runs giving him a total of 62.3 BR. 

Whether or not we distinguish between different types of walks is important in comparing his batting to Josh Hamilton, who is considered his main competition for the MVP award.  If we give batters less credit for intentional walks, then Cabrera leads Hamilton (38 NIBB, 5 IBB) in BR 57.8 to 56.2.  If we consider all walks to be worth 0.33 runs, then Cabrera leads 62.3 to 56.9.   We wouldn’t stop there in determining their value of course.  We would look at baserunning contribution, park effects, position and defensive contribution.  That’s for another post though. 

The question is should we distinguish between type of walk in the calculation of batting runs?  Tigers fans have protested that Miguel Cabrera is being unfairly punished just because he has had less protection in the batting order than Hamilton.  They also reason that he gets walked a lot because pitchers fear him and would rather not face him.  This indicates something positive about Cabrera’s hitting skill, not something negative. 

The purpose of Batting Runs though is not to punish or reward a player.  It’s also not meant to determine the best hitter.  It is supposed to determine how much value in terms of runs a player contributes to his team.  Thus, when a pitcher walks a batter to reduce the potential of scoring a run, it makes sense that the value of that walk might be reduced accordingly.

This practice is not universally accepted though.  Tango and FanGraphs distinguish between walks but Pete Palmer (the creator of the linear weights system) and Gary Gillette do not distinguish between NIBBs and IBBs in The ESPN Baseball Encylopedia.  Baseball-Reference follows the lead of Palmer on that issue as well.

A reason for not cutting the value of an IBB might be that many NIBBs are essentially IBBs.  There are many instances where batters are pitched around and receive a walk without it being an intentional walk.  This is especially true when considering  hitters of the caliber of Hamilton and Cabrera. So, do we cut the value of all their walks in high leverage situations because we know pitchers are usually not giving them anything to hit? 

I don’t think the solution to the intentional walk problem is cut and dried.  I typically look at FanGraphs Batting Runs (wRAA) before I go to Baseball-Reference but in the case of batters like Cabrera or Albert Pujols, who receive a lot of intentional walks,  I think it’s important to look at it both ways.  There is never one number that gives you the final answer in statistical analysis. 

Another Late Season Surge for Raburn

 

Ryan Raburn’s 2010 season is looking very familiar.  Last year, the Tigers outfielder finished strong down the stretch and ended up with an impressive .892 OPS in 291 plate appearances.  He batted only .253 with a .778 OPS in spotty playing time through the first four months.  Most of his damage was done in August and September when he batted .342/.403/.640 and was one of the Tigers’ key hitters in their central division title chase. 

 

It was felt by some observers that Ryan’s strong finish earned him more regular playing time for 2010, but he found himself back on the bench for much of the first four months.  He did not play well in his utility role batting just .211 with a .329 slugging average in 182 PA through July.  Some embarrassing mishaps in the outfield did not  help his cause either.

 

When Magglio Ordonez went down with an ankle injury in late July, Raburn got an opportunity for more playing time in left field with rookie Brennan Boesch switching to right field.  Raburn has responded by batting .340/.389/.647 in 172 PA since August 1.  The only American Leaguers with a higher slugging average during this period have been Blue Jays surprise slugger Jose Bautista (.664) and White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko (.656).

 

Raburn’s late season surge leaves some Tigers fans wondering once again whether be deserves a shot at a starting job.  His .837 OPS over the last two seasons ranks him third among American League outfielders with 500 or more PA.  For his career, he has posted a .857 OPS versus left-handed pitchers and a .753 OPS versus right-handers. So, he probably wouldn’t do quite as well in a full-time role.

 

There are concerns about his defense.  He looks very awkward at times, but I think he makes up for some of that with a strong arm and decent range.  His numbers don’t support the contention that he is an awful outfielder.  In four partial seasons, he has a combined –3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating and +2 Fielding Bible Defensive Runs Saved.  He’s certainly not a graceful outfielder but he seems adequate enough if he hits and may be a better defender with regular playing time at one position.  

 

Ultimately, I think the 29-year-old Raburn will be a utility man again, backing up all three outfield positions and second base.  Another season of 300 PA seems like a good bet, but a starting job is not out of the question at this point.  With only center fielder Austin Jackson locked into a role for next season, the opportunity could be there.  If Raburn gets out of the gate fast for a change, he could seize a regular job.         

Thoughts on Tigers 2011 Schedule

 

One of my favorite news items of the off-season used the be the announcement of next season’s schedule.  If I remember correctly, this would typically occur in the middle of December.  Seeing next season’s schedule on a frigid winter day was enough to warm a fan up with thoughts of summer. 

 

For the last few years though, the schedule has been coming out in August or September.  Yesterday, the Tigers released their 2011 Schedule.  While it doesn’t have quite the same effect as a December release, it’s still fun to anticipate 2011 given that the Tigers are out of contention in 2010. 

 

The first thing I noticed is that the season ends on Wednesday, September 28 versus the Indians.  This is unusual because as long as I can remember every regular season has ended on a Sunday.  The likely reason is an effort to start and end the playoffs a little earlier.  This year, the World Series may extend into November.

 

The Tigers season opens on Thursday, March 31 in Yankee Stadium, which means that fans will probably be in winter coats, hats and gloves for the opener.  The Thursday start to the season is also a bit unusual.  In recent years, the season opened with a game or two on Sunday and a full slate of games on Monday.  The first Comerica Park game is versus the Royals on April 8.

 

Other Scheduling Thoughts

 

The Tigers have interleague games at Pittsburgh, Colorado and Los Angeles next year.  They play New York, Arizona and San Francisco at home.   I’m not a fan of interleague play, but the Tigers generally have so much success versus the National League that it’s hard to complain too much.   

 

I don’t like west coast games very much because they end too late causing me to stay up beyond 1:00 AM.  In a good year, they are limited to one or two trips to Oakland, Seattle and Los Angeles.  This year, they’ve got four of them spread throughout the year – seven games in Oakland and Seattle in April, a series in Los Angeles versus the Dodgers in June, another in Los Angeles against the Angels in July (including July 4th which I hope will be an afternoon game) and one series at Oakland in September.

 

If I go to see the Tigers at Fenway this year, my choice will be limited to two games – a Wednesday or Thursday in the middle of May.  A night game on May 18 in Boston is almost certainly going to involve a chilling sea breeze. 

 

They have another dreadful four day all-star break this year from July 11-14.  They are off again on July 18. 

 

Their toughest stretch of the year may be 15 games versus the Rays, Red Sox, Twins, White Sox and Rangers in late May and early June.  On the other hand, they finish the season with eight games versus the Royals, Orioles and Indians. 

Average WAR for National League Starters

 

In an earlier post, I discussed the pros and cons of two commonly used Wins Above Replacement statistics for pitchers:

• Fan Graphs War (fWAR)

• Rally’s WAR (rRaw)

 

I then took the average of those two WARs for each Tigers starter.  In a follow-up post, I did the same calculation for American Leaguers starters and found Seattle left-hander Felix Hernandez to be the top pitcher.  Today, I’ll look at National League starters

 

The fWAR statistic is based on FIP and innings pitched.  As such, it favors pitchers with a high number of innings pitched and strong peripherals – high strikeout rates and low walk and home run rates.  It is forgiving to pitchers with high ERAs relative to their peripherals. Table 1 shows the National League fWAR leaders in 2010.  Roy Halladay of the Phillies and Josh Johnson of the Marlins are tied for the league lead with 6.2 fWAR.  Rockies fire baller Ubaldo Jimenez (5.8) and Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright (5.4) are also more than five wins above replacement. 

Table1: NL fWAR Leaders

Pitcher	fWAR
Halladay, Phi	6.2
Johnson, Fla	6.2
Jimenez, Col	5.8
Wainwright, Stl	5.4
Lincecum, SF	4.2

 

The rWAR statistic is based on innings pitched and runs allowed with adjustments made for team defense (as measured by Total Zone) behind a pitcher.  It is friendly to a pitcher with a high number of innings and a low RA - which is the same as ERA except it considers all runs rather than just earned runs.  A pitcher with a low RA, despite weak defensive support, will do particularly well on this statistic.  Rally’s WAR is unaffected by peripherals.

We can see in Table 2 that Halladay sits atop rWAR leader board at 6.7.  He is followed by Johnson (6.3), Jimenez (5.9) and Braves comeback pitcher Tim Hudson (5.7).  

Table 2: NL rWAR Leaders

Pitcher	rWAR
Halladay, Phi	6.7
Johnson, Fla	6.3
Jimenez, Col	5.9
Hudson, Atl	5.7
Wainwright, Stl	5.5

Fans who don’t want to choose between runs allowed and peripherals ( I fall in this category) might prefer a combined WAR.  One way to do this is to compute a simple average of fWAR and rWAR as displayed in Table 3.  Using this approach, Halladay (6.4 Avg WAR) is the top pitcher, followed by Johnson (6.2), Jimenez (5.8) and Wainwright (5.4).  

Another thing to note is that some pitchers do much better on one stat than the other.  For example, the Giants’ Tim Lincecum is fifth with 4.2 fWAR but has only 2.7 rWAR.  This is because he has strong peripherals relative to his RA.  Other pitchers such as the Hudson (3.4 vs. 5.7) do better on rWAR.   

 

Table 3: NL Average WAR Leaders

Pitcher	fWAR	rWAR	Avg WAR
Halladay, Phi	6.2	6.7	6.4
Johnson, Fla	6.2	6.3	6.2
Jimenez, Col	5.8	5.9	5.8
Wainwright, Stl	5.4	5.5	5.4
Hudson, Atl	3.4	5.7	4.6
Myers, Hou	4.1	4.7	4.4
Santana, NY	3.7	4.6	4.2
Hamels, Phi	3.5	4.5	4.0
Latos, SD	3.7	4.3	4.0
Kershaw, LA	4.0	3.9	4.0

Average WAR for AL Starters

In my previous post, I discussed the pros and cons of two commonly used Wins Above Replacement statistics for pitchers:

• Fan Graphs War (fWAR)

• Rally’s WAR (rRaw)

The fWAR statistic is based on FIP and innings pitched.  As such, it favors pitchers with a high number of innings pitched and strong peripherals – high strikeout rates and low walk and home run rates.  It is forgiving to pitchers with high ERAs relative to their peripherals.  Table 1 shows the American League WAR leaders in 2010.  Those who favor this FIP based WAR are probably choosing between Francisco Liriano (6.1 fWAR), Cliff Lee ( 6.0) and Felix Hernandez (5.9) in a close Cy Young race.

Table1: AL fWAR Leaders

Pitcher	fWAR
Liriano, Min	6.1
Lee, Sea-Tex	6.0
Hernandez, Sea	5.9
Weaver, LA	5.1
Lester, Bos	5.0

The rWAR statistic is based on innings pitched and runs allowed with adjustments made for team defense (as measured by Total Zone) behind a pitcher.  It is friendly to a pitcher with a high number of innings and a low RA - which is the same as ERA except it considers all runs rather than just earned runs.  A pitcher with a low RA, despite weak defensive support, will do particularly well on this statistic.  Rally’s WAR is unaffected by peripherals.  As seen in Table 2, supporters of rWAR likely see Hernandez as the clear Cy Young favorite.

Table 2: AL rWAR Leaders

Pitcher	rWAR
Hernandez, Sea	5.6
Weaver, LA	5.1
Liriano, Min	4.7
Pavano, Min	4.6
Price, TB	4.6

Fans who don’t want to choose between runs allowed and peripherals ( I fall in this category) might prefer a combined WAR.  One way to do this is to compute a simple average of fWAR and rWAR as displayed in Table 3.  Using this approach, Hernandez (5.8 Avg WAR) looks like the top pitcher, followed by Liriano (5.4), Weaver (5.1) and Lee (4.8).  

Another thing you may notice is that some pitchers do much better on one stat than the other.  For example, Liriano (6.1 fWAR versus 4.7 rWAR) and Lee (6.0 vs. 3.5) do far better on fWAR because of their strong peripherals and good but not great RAs.  On the other hand, hurlers such as David Price (3.7 vs. 4.6) and  Carl Pavano (3.6 vs. 4.6) do better on rWAR.    

Table 3: AL Average WAR Leaders

Pitcher	fWAR	rWAR	Avg WAR
Hernandez, Sea	5.9	5.6	5.8
Liriano, Min	6.1	4.7	5.4
Weaver, LA	5.1	5.1	5.1
Lee, Sea-Tex	6.0	3.5	4.8
Lester, Bos	5.0	4.3	4.6
Price, TB	3.7	4.6	4.2
Wilson, Tex	3.9	4.4	4.2
Danks, Chi	4.1	4.2	4.2
Pavano, Min	3.6	4.6	4.1
Sabathia, NY	4.0	4.0	4.0
Verlander, Det	4.5	3.4	4.0