You may have noticed that there are two commonly used Wins Above Replacementnt (WAR) statistics for both hitters and pitchers:
Today. I’m going to discuss the pitching version of each. There are pros and cons to both measures and the statistical community is still debating the merits of the two. fWAR is based on FIP and therefore only considers events which a pitcher essentially controls – K, BB, HR, IP. It also adjusts for a pitchers home park.
The fWAR statistic has some potential drawbacks. First, it considers BABIP to be completely out of control of the pitcher. It also gives a pitcher no credit for distribution of base runners or sequencing events. For example, a pitcher that pitched well with runners on base would not get credit for that.
The rWAR statistic was invented by Sean Smith and is found on Baseball-Reference. It starts with total runs allowed by a pitcher and then adjusts for team fielding behind that pitcher. It considers IP run average (RA) - which is the same as ERA except it considers all runs rather than earned runs - and the Total Zone statistic. It also adjusts for the pitcher’s home park. The advantage is that it tries to tease out defense rather than completely ignore balls in play.
A potential shortcoming of rWAR is that the measurement of team defense in a single season is still shaky. It’s also possible that rWAR gives a pitcher too much credit for limiting hits on balls in play, distribution of base runners and sequencing.
So, which one is better? I prefer the concept of rWAR better. I think it’s good to start any kind of run prevention evaluation with runs allowed. The next step would be to determine how much of run prevention is pitching and how much is fielding. rWAR attempts to do that but the measurement of team defense in a single season is still too tenuous for me to use rWAR by itself.
Over the course of a career or several seasons, rWAR becomes more reliable because variation in team defense evens out and we learn more about a pitchers ability to control BABIP, base runner distribution and sequencing over time.
fWAR is valuable because it tells us how good a pitcher was at events over which he has the most responsibility. Thus, it is better statistic than rWAR for identifying pitching talent and projecting into the future. However, it makes too many assumptions about events which a pitcher does not control by himself for me to use it as a stand alone measure.
So rWAR is best for career measurement and fWAR is good for projection. How about evaluating which pitcher did best last season? I would not use either by itself, but rather I would make a judgment using both. One way to do that would be to take an average or weighted average of the two statistics. For now, I’ll look at the Tigers starters in 2010 using a straight average (Table 1).
Table 1: WAR for Tigers Starters in 2010
| Pitcher | fWAR | rWAR | AverageWAR | | Verlander | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4.0 | | Scherzer | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | | Galarraga | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | | Porcello | 1.7 | -0.1 | 0.8 | | Bonderman | 1.5 | -0.1 | 0.7 |
We can see that Justin Verlander was 4.5 wins above a replacement player according to Fan Graphs and 3.4 using Baseball-Reference. That averages out to 4.0 WAR. Based on that, we would say that he has added an estimated four wins to the Tigers beyond what an average player would contribute. Max Scherzer is next in line with an average WAR of 3.1.
All of the Tigers did better on fWAR than rWAR except Armando Galarraga. Galarraga does poorly on f WAR because he has not done a good job on things that a pitcher most controls (fWAR). He does better on rWAR because he has a low BABIP and relatively low ERA.
In future posts, I am going to look at average WAR for pitchers on other teams.
Last year, the voters for the Cy Young award selected 16-game winner Zach Greinke over 19-game winners Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. Based on ERA and sabermetric statistics such as Wins Above Replacement (WAR), they clearly made the right choice. In the the National League, they selected 15-game-winner Tim Lincecum instead of 19-game winner Adam Wainwright. There would have been no shame in giving the award to Wainwright, but again I think the made the correct selection. Those were two of the three lowest win totals for starting pitchers in the history of the award (Brandon Webb also won 16 games in 2006).
Traditionally, the writers who vote for the award have made games won a major criteria. In 1990, for example Clemens had 21 wins and led the American League with a 1.93 ERA, but lost out to 27-game winner Bob Welch, who had an ERA a full run higher (2.95). That appears to be changing as they seem to be recognizing more than ever that wins is not the fairest way to evaluate pitchers. This year will be particularly interesting though as they may have to choose between a potential 20-game winner and pitcher with fewer than 15 wins.
As it stands now, Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia has a 19-6 record. Felix Hernandez of the Mariners stands at 11-10. Readers of this blog don’t need me to explain the failings of won-loss record for pitchers, but this case is so extreme it’s worth mentioning the run support argument. While Sabathia has benefitted from 6.07 runs per game, King Felix has only received 3.16 runs per game. That’s almost three more runs per game for Sabathia! That’s hardly a fair comparison
Sometimes, pitchers accumulate a lot of wins because they are workhorses which pitch deep into games. One might guess that a 19-game winner would be pitching deeper into games than an 11-game winner, but, in this case, Hernandez actually has more innings pitched (219 1/3 versus 209). So, the wins statistic is not going to work here at all.
Since the main job of a pitcher is to give up as few runs as possible, a good starting point in pitcher evaluation is ERA. Table 1 shows that Hernandez leads Sabathia in ERA by a wide margin (2.30 versus 3.14). The ERA leader is Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox at 2.25. However, Buchholz has pitched only 151 2/3 innings, so he has not helped his team as much as Hernandez.
Table 1: AL ERA Leaders
| Pitcher | IP | ERA |
| Buchholz, Bos | 151 2/3 | 2.25 |
| Hernandez, Sea | 219 1/3 | 2.30 |
| Cahill, Oak | 165 2/3 | 2.72 |
| Price, TB | 178 2/3 | 2.87 |
| Wilson, Tex | 177 | 3.10 |
| Weaver, LA | 189 | 3.14 |
| Sabathia, NY | 209 | 3.14 |
In order to give pitchers credit for quantity of innings pitched as well as quality, Pete Palmer introduced the Pitching Runs statistic in 1984. Pitching Runs tells us the number of runs saved by a pitcher compared to league average. In it’s purest form, it is based on a pitcher’s IP and earned runs (ER) and the league ERA (Lg ERA):
Pitching Runs = IP x Lg ERA/9 – ER.
The Baseball-Reference version also adjusts for ballpark. Hernandez has 39 Pitching Runs (See Table 2) which means that he has saved his team 39 runs compared to what the average pitcher would have saved in his place. Because his greater workload is taken into account, Hernandez leads Buchholz by 7.7 runs. Sabathia is only 10th in the league with 19.5.
Table 2: AL Pitching Runs Leaders
| Pitcher | IP | Pitching Runs |
| Hernandez, Sea | 219 1/3 | 39.0 |
| Buchholz, Bos | 151 | 31.3 |
| Price, TB | 178 2/3 | 24.6 |
| Cahill, Oak | 165 2/3 | 23.9 |
| Wilson, Tex | 177 | 22.2 |
| Weaver, LA | 189 | 21.3 |
| Lester, Bos | 182 | 20.9 |
| Liriano, Min | 172 1/3 | 19.9 |
| Gonzalez, Oak | 179 2/3 | 19.7 |
| Sabathia, NY | 209 | 19.5 |
A shortcoming of both ERA and Pitching Runs is that the don’t consider defensive support behind a pitcher. The WAR statistic developed by Sean Smith and listed at Baseball-Reference attempts to take fielding into account. WAR is calculated as follows: -
Determine how many runs a pitcher allowed.
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Calculate average runs allowed by pitchers facing the same teams for the same number of innings as the pitcher of interest.
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Adjust for team defensive runs saved based on Total Zone. Total Zone is computed from plays made, errors, which fielders fielded each out and hit, batted ball type, handedness of pitcher and batter, and park adjustments.
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Multiply by 1.22 to get replacement level for an AL starter.
-
Subtract (4) from (2) to get WAR.
Table 3 shows that Felix Hernandez was the clear leader in WAR with 5.7. This says that Hernandez contributed close to six wins more than you would expect from a replacement level player. Sabathia is 10th in the league with 4 WAR.
Table 3: AL Starting Pitcher WAR Leaders
| Pitcher | WAR |
| Hernandez, Sea | 5.7 |
| Weaver, LA | 4.8 |
| Buchholz, Bos | 4.8 |
| Liriano, Min | 4.7 |
| Wilson, Tex | 4.6 |
| Price, TB | 4.6 |
| Pavano, Min | 4.4 |
| Lester, Bos | 4.3 |
| Danks, Chi | 4.2 |
| Sabathia, NY | 4.0 |
Based on ERA, Pitching Runs and WAR and every other statistic other than wins, Hernandez appears to be the superior pitcher to Sabathia this year. It will be very interesting to see how the vote turns out if Sabathia wins 20+ and Hernandez wins only 11 to 13 games.
Edit: St. Pierre did not actually score the winning run. Brennan Boesch pinch ran for him and he scored the run.
I’ve been to a lot of minor league parks over the years. I have followed Tigers prospects in Lowell, MA, Manchester, NH, Pawtucket, RI, Oneonta, NY and Lakeland, FL among other places. I’ve even attended some Arizona Fall League games. I typically go specifically to watch the top prospects like Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Curtis Granderson and Cameron Maybin. I could not help but notice though that, for the longest time, I’ve been penciling Maxim St. Pierre’s name into box scores.
There is a reason it seems that Max has been around forever. He was drafted by the Tigers in the 26th round of the First Year Player draft in June, 1997. The Montreal native has spent the last14 years in the minors – 13 in the Tigers system – without ever playing a game in the majors. He has made stops with the Gulf Coast League Tigers, Oneonta, West Michigan, Lakeland, Erie, Toledo and Huntsville (one year with the Brewers). How long is 14 years? When he was drafted in 1997, Raul Casanova was the Tigers regular catcher that year.
Earlier in the week, St. Pierre finally realized his dream when the Tigers recalled him for the final month of the season. With Laird battling a sore back, the Tigers felt they could use a third catcher as rosters expanded. The 30-year-old St. Pierre has had a good season batting a combined .274/.353/.479 for Erie and Toledo and is a strong defender. Just as important, the out-of-contention Tigers are rewarding him for his many years of service.
Today, Max played in his first major league game. The pitcher was Rick Porcello, who was eight years old when St. Pierre signed with the Tigers organization. St. Pierre grounded out to shortstop in his first major league at bat. He failed to hit in his first three at bats, but got one more chance in the eighth with the score tied at four. The rookie catcher responded by poking a single to center field. He eventually came around to score what proved to be the winning run in a 6-4 win over the Royals.
The Tigers have had a lot of rookies get their first major league hits this year – Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch and Casper Wells to name a few. But St. Pierre’s first hit was more special than any of them.
There has been much discussion on the internet about Jhonny Peralta’s potential role on the Tigers in 2011. He has a club option that would pay him $7 million next year. If they want him back, they can either allow the option to kick in or decline the option and try to sign him at a lower salary. The other question is whether he would play third base or shortstop.
With Brandon Inge’s contract coming to an end after this season, the Tigers could replace him with Peralta. According to the Fan Graphs weighted runs created statistic (wRC or RC), Peralta has 57.7 RC in 506 Plate appearances (PA) this year. Over 650 PA, that would be 74 RC. Similarly, Inge’s 52.5 RC over 466 PA translates into 73 RC over a full season. So, there is only a one run difference between the two. Performing similar calculations on 2009 data yields 65 RC for Peralta and 70 RC for Inge. So, based on the last two seasons, Peralta would not be an upgrade over Inge offensively.
Defensively, I’ll look at the Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) over 2009-2010 because it’s always a good idea to use multiple fielding measures and multiple years when evaluating defense. Peralta had the following numbers at in 2009-2010:
DRS –4 +2 UZR –2 –4
Averaging those together yields an estimate of 0 defensive runs saved. Now for Inge:
DRS +8 -1 UZR +7 +3
That averages out to +4 runs saved. So, I’ll estimate that Inge is 4 runs better than Peralta defensively. Peralta is only one run better offensively this year, so he’s clearly not an upgrade overall. They are probably better off with Inge at third for next year, but it’s not a big difference.
What about Peralta at shortstop. Would you rather have Peralta or Ramon Santiago/ Danny Worth? Some of you might be thinking “none of the above”, but let’s look at those two options. The table below looks at the runs created numbers for the three shortstops in 2010.
| Player | PA | RC |
| Peralta | 506 | 57.7 |
| Santiago | 334 | 34.6 |
| Worth | 115 | 9.7 |
We saw above that Peralta would have 74 RC over 650 PA. Suppose, we give 400 PA to Santiago and 250 to Worth. Their estimated RC are in the following Table
| Player | PA | RC |
| Peralta | 650 | 74 |
| Santiago | 400 | 42 |
| Worth | 250 | 21 |
Over a combined 650 PA, Santiago and Worth would have 63 RC. That is 11 runs fewer than Peralta. Do Santiago and Worth make up for it defensively? We are dealing with a lot of small sample sizes here, so I’ll go back five years. First, Peralta:
DRS –6 –6 –2 –6 +5 UZR –6 –11 –12 –1 +3
That averages to –4 runs which Peralta cost his team. Now, Santiago:
DRS +1 +8 –6 –2 +9 UZR +2 +3 0 –1 +6
That comes out to +2 runs saved on average. The data on Worth is too limited, so I’ll assume that he is average defensively, which based on observation and reputation seems fair. So, let’s say that Santiago/Worth are +1 defensively. That makes them five runs better than Peralta. Combine that with the offense and Peralta is six runs better.
My conclusion is that the 2009-2010 version of Peralta would not be an upgrade at third base, but would be a slight upgrade at shortstop assuming his defense does not fall off a cliff. Now, if Peralta can get back to his 90 RC production of 2008, then he would be a big upgrade at either position. My original thought was that he would be ok at third but not at shortstop. I'm still leery of the Tigers using a below average defender at shortstop and I hope they look elsewhere. However, it looks like shortstop might actually be a better idea than third base.
After getting shelled in four consecutive starts and seeing his ERA balloon to 7.29, Max Scherzer was sent to triple-A Toledo after his May 14 start to work on his mechanics. He pitched two games for the MudHens and apparently learned a lot. He returned to the Tigers with a bang on May 30. In that game, he struckout a career high 14 batters in 5 2/3 scoreless innings. In 17 starts since his recall – essentially half a season – the twenty-six-year-old right-hander has compiled a 2.20 ERA in 110 2/3 innings. As seen is Table 1, this ranks him fourth in the American League over that period. Table 1 – AL ERA Leaders, May 30 – August 28
| Pitcher | ERA | | Buchholz, Bos | 1.88 | | Hernandez, Sea | 1.90 | | Cahill, Oak | 2.17 | | Scherzer, Det | 2.20 | | Sabathia, NY | 2.32 | | Wilson, Tex | 2.72 | | Floyd, Chi | 2.74 | | Morrow, Tor | 3.09 | | Lester, Bos | 3.11 | | Lee, Sea/Tex | 3.27 | Max has been striking out batters at a rate of 9.4 per nine innings (K/9) since May 30, which ranks him fifth in the league (Table 2). This is nothing new for Scherzer, who had 9.5 k/9 in 226 1/3 innings prior to 2010. Teammate Justin Verlander is also among the leaders with 8.7 K/9 since May 30. Table 2 – AL K/9 IP Leaders, May 30 – August 28 | Pitcher | K/9 | | Morrow, Tor | 10.3 | | Liriano, Min | 10.2 | | Weaver, LA | 9.8 | | Price, TB | 9.6 | | Scherzer, Det | 9.4 | | Lewis, Tex | 9.0 | | Verlander, Det | 8.7 | | Hernandez, Sea | 8.6 | | Matsuzaka, Bos | 8.4 | | Greinke, KC | 8.1 | One area where Scherzer still struggles at times is control. He has walked 3.5 batters per nine innings since May 30 and also for the season. This has made it difficult for him to consistently pitch deep into games. He pitched six or more innings in just nine of his first 19 starts. In his last six starts, however, he has pitched 6+ innings each time and 7+ innings four times. He has walked just 12 batters in 41 1/3 innings during that span. Beyond control, the one other thing Scherzer needs to prove is that he can pitch strong for 200 innings a season. He has pitched 152 2/3 innings this year and made it through 170 1/3 innings in 2009. He has certainly been dominant over the past 17 starts though and showing no signs of fatigue. Statistics for this article were abstracted from BaseballMusings.com Day-by-Day Database
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