On July 21-22, the Tigers beat the Rangers and Blue Jay's in consecutive games and were just two games behind the first place Chicago White Sox. It took them more than three weeks to win back-to-back games again. After beating the White Sox 3-2 on a two-run homer in the ninth by Alex Avila last night, the Tigers out slugged the Sox 13-8 this afternoon. The wins leave the Tigers in third place 10 1/2 games behind the Twins.
It was a seesaw game today which saw the Tigers jump out to an early 5-1 lead, fall behind 7-5, and then come back to win it. The weak hitting Tigers erupted for 16 hits including eight extra-base hits today. Jhonny Peralta hit a pair of homers and Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Raburn had one apiece. Johhny Damon also had a big day belting a double and a triple.
Raburn heating up
Ryan Raburn has claimed the regular left field job with some hot hitting this month. After a disappointing first half of the season, he has finally found his stroke. Raburn has batted .327/.277/.694 in 14 games this month. This is the second straight season he has hit well late in the season after a disappointing start. The key may be that the injury to Magglio Ordonez has given Raburn more consistent playing time.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Sunday, August 08, 2010
Looking Ahead to 2011
I generally don't like it when fans talk about the season being over in July or August. It's particularly annoying when that sentiment is expressed when the team is two or three games out of first as the Tigers were until recently. After all, things can turn around fast and unexpectedly in baseball. I'm not one to ever give up while the Tigers are still mathematically in contention, but realistically they have little chance of getting back into the race this year.
Now ten games behind the White Sox and 8 1/2 behind the second place Twins, it's time to start thinking about 2011 at least a little bit.
So, today, I'll take a position by position look at which players might be back next year.
Catcher
Gerald Laird has been very disappointing this year to say the least. He is batting .185 with little power and even has defense has declined. He is on the last year of his contract and I don't expect him back next year. Alex Avila has also been a disappointment, although he might have been rushed in an effort to add a left-handed bat to the team. I still think the Tigers view him as the catcher of the future though and he should be back next year. They will likely get a veteran catcher to split time with Avila.
First base
There's much to talk about here. Miguel Cabrera be back for at least the next five years
Second base
Right now, Carlos Guillen, Will Rhymes and Scott Sizemore are potential second basemen for 2011. Sizemore has been slowed by injuries (ankle and hip) this year and has likely never been fully healthy all season. He has hit well at triple-A but not in the majors. Assuming they don't get a replacement outside the organization, Sizemore is probably the favorite to win the position next year, but he won't be guaranteed a starting job as he was last spring.
Given his health history, they certainly can't count on Guillen to be the regular second baseman. There is a chance they might eat the final year of his contract but I think he'll return as a designated hitter and back up second baseman. Jim Leyland likes the scrappy Rhymes but I think his ultimate role will be backup infielder.
Third base
Brandon Inge is in the final year of his contract and Jhonny Peralta is in his final guaranteed year. There is little chance that the Tigers will exercice Peralta's $ 7 million option. They may try to bring him back at a reduced salary, but I think there is a better chance that they re-sign Inge. Although his range has declined since he hurt his knees last year, Inge is still the superior fielder and there is not much difference between the two offensively.
Shortstop
Peralta is playing shortstop at the moment, but is not a good defender at that position so I doubt he's a real option there for next year. Danny Worth is a strong defender but I don't know if he'll hit well enough to be a regular. The Tigers have long believed that Ramon Santiago does not have the durability to be a regular so, he'll continue as a backup and a very good one. I suspect, they will push hard to obtain a shortstop in a trade.
Right field
Until recently, Brennan Boesch was once the most appealing option in right field but it's hard to know what to make of a player who hit like Vladimir Guerrero in the first half and a double-A hitter since the all-star break. Whether or not he can make the adjustments down the stretch will determine whether he'll go into next season as a starting corner outfielder. They certainly need a young left-handed hitter badly, so he'll be one of the players to watch the rest of the season.
The injury to Magglio Ordonez means that his $15 million option for 2011 will not automatically vest. They may try to sign him at a lower salary but, given that his agent is Scott Boras, that won't happen easily. He'll probably be a late off-season signing and there is a good season the Tiger swill be heavily involved in that drama. How hard they'll push may depend on Boesch.
Center field
Austin Jackson has been one of the few consistent bright spots this season and should be the starting center fielder for years to come.
Left field
Johnny Damon is finishing a one year deal and probably won't be a top priority in the off-season. It's not that he has been bad, but he'll be 37 next year and the market for 37-year-old designated hitters is not strong. I think the Tigers will try hard to obtain a left-handed corner outfielder from outside the organization.
Now ten games behind the White Sox and 8 1/2 behind the second place Twins, it's time to start thinking about 2011 at least a little bit.
So, today, I'll take a position by position look at which players might be back next year.
Catcher
Gerald Laird has been very disappointing this year to say the least. He is batting .185 with little power and even has defense has declined. He is on the last year of his contract and I don't expect him back next year. Alex Avila has also been a disappointment, although he might have been rushed in an effort to add a left-handed bat to the team. I still think the Tigers view him as the catcher of the future though and he should be back next year. They will likely get a veteran catcher to split time with Avila.
First base
There's much to talk about here. Miguel Cabrera be back for at least the next five years
Second base
Right now, Carlos Guillen, Will Rhymes and Scott Sizemore are potential second basemen for 2011. Sizemore has been slowed by injuries (ankle and hip) this year and has likely never been fully healthy all season. He has hit well at triple-A but not in the majors. Assuming they don't get a replacement outside the organization, Sizemore is probably the favorite to win the position next year, but he won't be guaranteed a starting job as he was last spring.
Given his health history, they certainly can't count on Guillen to be the regular second baseman. There is a chance they might eat the final year of his contract but I think he'll return as a designated hitter and back up second baseman. Jim Leyland likes the scrappy Rhymes but I think his ultimate role will be backup infielder.
Third base
Brandon Inge is in the final year of his contract and Jhonny Peralta is in his final guaranteed year. There is little chance that the Tigers will exercice Peralta's $ 7 million option. They may try to bring him back at a reduced salary, but I think there is a better chance that they re-sign Inge. Although his range has declined since he hurt his knees last year, Inge is still the superior fielder and there is not much difference between the two offensively.
Shortstop
Peralta is playing shortstop at the moment, but is not a good defender at that position so I doubt he's a real option there for next year. Danny Worth is a strong defender but I don't know if he'll hit well enough to be a regular. The Tigers have long believed that Ramon Santiago does not have the durability to be a regular so, he'll continue as a backup and a very good one. I suspect, they will push hard to obtain a shortstop in a trade.
Right field
Until recently, Brennan Boesch was once the most appealing option in right field but it's hard to know what to make of a player who hit like Vladimir Guerrero in the first half and a double-A hitter since the all-star break. Whether or not he can make the adjustments down the stretch will determine whether he'll go into next season as a starting corner outfielder. They certainly need a young left-handed hitter badly, so he'll be one of the players to watch the rest of the season.
The injury to Magglio Ordonez means that his $15 million option for 2011 will not automatically vest. They may try to sign him at a lower salary but, given that his agent is Scott Boras, that won't happen easily. He'll probably be a late off-season signing and there is a good season the Tiger swill be heavily involved in that drama. How hard they'll push may depend on Boesch.
Center field
Austin Jackson has been one of the few consistent bright spots this season and should be the starting center fielder for years to come.
Left field
Johnny Damon is finishing a one year deal and probably won't be a top priority in the off-season. It's not that he has been bad, but he'll be 37 next year and the market for 37-year-old designated hitters is not strong. I think the Tigers will try hard to obtain a left-handed corner outfielder from outside the organization.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Another Book Review
Self promotion is one of the necessary evils of a self published book, so I'm going to post another review of my book Beyond Batting Average. This time, Charles Euchner, author of Nine Innings and other books was kind enough to say a few words. Here is what he had to say:
Mathematicians see beauty and truth in numbers. They see an inner logic, a simplicity that captures life's ineffable complexity. Baseball fans have always loved numbers too. As a kid -- before ESPN and regional sports networks -- I remember studying the box scores to recreate the previous day's games. (I wish box scores still abbreviated the long names of players like this: "Ystrzski.") But the PC and the Internet have brought baseball statistics to a sublime new height, which makes my youthful number-gazing seem as sophisticated as Hop On Pop.
In Beyond Batting Average, Lee Panas brings baseball's bold new world of statistical analysis to life. He is comprehensive, clear, and even clever. He examines every aspect of the game -- hitting, pitching, fielding, special situations, team-building -- with fairness and enthusiasm. The task is not simple, because statistics can lie as well as reveal hidden truths. Like other serious baseball people, Panas is on a mission, to find baseball's digital version of the Holy Grail. But he also understands that the game changes constantly, so that Grail will forever elude our reach. Change and constancy, of course, are two values we baseball fans embrace.
Let's all get up and give Lee Panas a wave around the stadium (I know some purists loathe waves, but I love 'em) for his all-star effort.
--Charles Euchner, author, The Last Nine Innings
Mathematicians see beauty and truth in numbers. They see an inner logic, a simplicity that captures life's ineffable complexity. Baseball fans have always loved numbers too. As a kid -- before ESPN and regional sports networks -- I remember studying the box scores to recreate the previous day's games. (I wish box scores still abbreviated the long names of players like this: "Ystrzski.") But the PC and the Internet have brought baseball statistics to a sublime new height, which makes my youthful number-gazing seem as sophisticated as Hop On Pop.
In Beyond Batting Average, Lee Panas brings baseball's bold new world of statistical analysis to life. He is comprehensive, clear, and even clever. He examines every aspect of the game -- hitting, pitching, fielding, special situations, team-building -- with fairness and enthusiasm. The task is not simple, because statistics can lie as well as reveal hidden truths. Like other serious baseball people, Panas is on a mission, to find baseball's digital version of the Holy Grail. But he also understands that the game changes constantly, so that Grail will forever elude our reach. Change and constancy, of course, are two values we baseball fans embrace.
Let's all get up and give Lee Panas a wave around the stadium (I know some purists loathe waves, but I love 'em) for his all-star effort.
--Charles Euchner, author, The Last Nine Innings
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Inge is Back
The Tigers have announced that Brandon Inge has returned to the team and that Danny Worth has been placed on the disabled list with a bruised left heel. When Inge was hit by a pitch which broke his hand two weeks ago, the initial estimate from the team was that he would be out four to six weeks. He's back two weeks earlier than the lower end of that estimate. In the past, Inge has tried to play through injuries and it hurt the team. The most prominent example was his trying to play through knee tendinitis the second half of last hear. Let's hope he's ready this time.
With Inge back on third base, newly acquired Jhonny Peralta will take over the shortstop position. Rookie Will Rhymes will remain at second base until Carlos Guillen (strained calf) returns next week. Ramon Santiago will return to his familiar backup role. Inge, Peralta and Guillen are their best offensive options around the infield. Inge will help their defense but Guillen and Peralta will open up holes in the middle of the infield.
The pitcher who is likely to be hurt the most by poor infield defense is Rick Porcello (47.6% groundball rate). Most of their starters - Jeremy Bonderman (41.5% ), Justin Verlander (39.7%), Armando Galarraga (39.4%) - and Max Scherzer (39.1%) - have been predominantly fly ball pitchers this year. Still, no pitcher benefits from lack of range in the infield. The hope is that Guillen and Peralta can make up for their defensive deficiencies with their offense.
With Inge back on third base, newly acquired Jhonny Peralta will take over the shortstop position. Rookie Will Rhymes will remain at second base until Carlos Guillen (strained calf) returns next week. Ramon Santiago will return to his familiar backup role. Inge, Peralta and Guillen are their best offensive options around the infield. Inge will help their defense but Guillen and Peralta will open up holes in the middle of the infield.
The pitcher who is likely to be hurt the most by poor infield defense is Rick Porcello (47.6% groundball rate). Most of their starters - Jeremy Bonderman (41.5% ), Justin Verlander (39.7%), Armando Galarraga (39.4%) - and Max Scherzer (39.1%) - have been predominantly fly ball pitchers this year. Still, no pitcher benefits from lack of range in the infield. The hope is that Guillen and Peralta can make up for their defensive deficiencies with their offense.
Sunday, August 01, 2010
My day at Fenway
I went to the Tigers game at Fenway Park and it was a great day despite the outcome of the game. First, I was interviewed before the game by Detroit Tigers broadcaster Dan Dickerson. The interview was about my book Beyond Batting Average and baseball statistics in general. It will be aired on Sunday's pre-game show (on WXYT in Detroit). I think the interview went pretty well but I haven't heard it yet. So, we'll see how it sounds.
I almost didn't make it. First, there was a major delay on the subway. Then, I was supposed to meet Dan at 2:00 but they wouldn't let fans in until 2:10. I tried to tell Fenway security that I was supposed to be at an interview with the Tigers broadcaster at 2:00 but they either weren't buying it or didn't care. Probably both. I thought I was going to miss an opportunity I had been anticipating for a long time.
Anyway, I finally got in the park and met Dan in the stands at about 2:20. I was a wreck at that point but Dan is the type of guy that puts you at ease right away. So that helped a lot. Still, I think I would have blanked out if I had not prepared so much ahead of time.
I also got a chance to meet Samara Pearlstein for the first time. Many of you know her as the author of the great blog Roar of the Tigers. She also did all the illustrations for my book. I'm sure she will put up her usual photographs of the game and she even took a couple of me. So, you will get to see my mustache for the first (and maybe last) time. For one thing, it certainly isn't creating any good karma for the Tigers.
The best part of the actual viewing of the game was not surprisingly Miguel Cabrera. He put on an awesome show in batting practice. He even had the Red Sox fans cheering and he took a bow afterward. He then hit a rocket in the first inning that cleared everything in left field.
Max Scherzer pitched a fine game as well.
Needless to say, the game did not end well. Being surrounded by 30,000 hysterical Red Sox fans dancing and chanting "Papi Papi" for ten minutes after the game is an experience I would not wish on any Tigers fan!
Regardless, it was a good day at the ballpark.
I almost didn't make it. First, there was a major delay on the subway. Then, I was supposed to meet Dan at 2:00 but they wouldn't let fans in until 2:10. I tried to tell Fenway security that I was supposed to be at an interview with the Tigers broadcaster at 2:00 but they either weren't buying it or didn't care. Probably both. I thought I was going to miss an opportunity I had been anticipating for a long time.
Anyway, I finally got in the park and met Dan in the stands at about 2:20. I was a wreck at that point but Dan is the type of guy that puts you at ease right away. So that helped a lot. Still, I think I would have blanked out if I had not prepared so much ahead of time.
I also got a chance to meet Samara Pearlstein for the first time. Many of you know her as the author of the great blog Roar of the Tigers. She also did all the illustrations for my book. I'm sure she will put up her usual photographs of the game and she even took a couple of me. So, you will get to see my mustache for the first (and maybe last) time. For one thing, it certainly isn't creating any good karma for the Tigers.
The best part of the actual viewing of the game was not surprisingly Miguel Cabrera. He put on an awesome show in batting practice. He even had the Red Sox fans cheering and he took a bow afterward. He then hit a rocket in the first inning that cleared everything in left field.
Max Scherzer pitched a fine game as well.
Needless to say, the game did not end well. Being surrounded by 30,000 hysterical Red Sox fans dancing and chanting "Papi Papi" for ten minutes after the game is an experience I would not wish on any Tigers fan!
Regardless, it was a good day at the ballpark.
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