The Tigers lost six of nine on their just completed western swing which included three games each in Los Angeles, Seattle and Oakland and are now 24-35 and eight games behind the first place White Sox. They are not hitting, their relief pitching is awful, and the fielding miscues and base running blunders continue. Is the season over?
No, the season is not over when you are 8 games behind on June 4.
When will it be over?
Very soon if they don't get going right now. It will be over if the White Sox or some other team gets hot and the Tigers continue to bumble along. Once they fall 10-12 games behind, it's going to be really tough to come back even if they get rolling later in the season. If they don't do well on the upcoming home stand, they might reach the point of no return.
Is there any reason to expect they will turn it around?
I don't really expect them to turn it around but it's not at the point where "it will take a miracle" to do so. Their starting pitching has been solid for three weeks posting a 3.98 ERA in their last 21 games. I also don't think their offense is going to continue to struggle as it has. Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria and maybe some others are likely to get better and there is nobody whose performance is likely to regress.
What will be their biggest hurdles?
There are a lot of problems with the team this year but the one that seems most difficult to fix is the bullpen. They have absolutely no reliable relievers on the team other than Todd Jones and he is only good for his narrow role of one inning closer on a team that doesn't give him many save opportunities. Poor infield defense is another fairly big problem but that could get a little better if Brandon Inge plays more third base and Cabrera continues to learn the first base position. Yeah, hitting has been a surprisingly big problem this year but I still think that can fix itself to an extent.
Won't the bullpen get better once Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney are ready later this month?
It should get better but both have had many health problems the last couple of years so there is no guarantee that they'll be in top form when they get back or that they'll stay healthy. The reports on both of them have been positive lately but I'm still skeptical.
Is Gary Sheffield going to help?
I think he's about done. He hasn't been healthy since last June and has hurt the team trying to play his way into shape. I wouldn't be surprised if he were released before the end of the year.
What's wrong with Miguel Cabrera?
I answered that yesterday.
What's wrong with Justin Verlander?
I don't know. His velocity was down early in the season but it has gotten better in recent starts. His command is still not that good, he's not striking batters out and walking too many. The results have been better as of late but he's still not in peak form. They need a big last two thirds of the season from him if they are going to have any chance of contending.
Edgar Renteria?
He seems to have gotten older in a hurry. His range, which was about average last year, seems to have declined some more this year and his offense has been awful. I do think he is better than a .667 OPS though. He should do better.
Will they be sellers at the trading deadline?
If they don't improve substantially, then yes. If they climb back close to .500 and are in striking distance of first place, then no.
Who might they be selling?
I don't envision a fire sale. I can't see them trading Granderson, Verlander, Cabrera (his contract would make him tough to move anyway) or Magglio Ordonez. Players who they might be willing to move and might bring back something of value are Nate Robertson, Jones, Renteria and Pudge Rodriguez. Placido Polanco is a possibility but I think they'll keep him. Carlos Guillen would be tough to move with his long term deal and there is no way they'll get anything for Sheffield.
Why not a firesale?
Because I still think they have a core of talent that can compete in the AL Central if they make the right acquisitions during the off-season and some players having bad seasons bounce back in 2009.
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Zoom!
Photo credit: Roger DewittJoel Zumaya made his first rehab start for the Lakeland Flying Tigers last night and pitched two shutout innings allowing one hit and one walk and picking up one strikeout. As the above picture indicates, he hit 101 MPH on the Joker Marchant Stadium gun. The stadium gun is a bit fast but I've been told he threw as high as 99 MPH and was snapping off some wicked curveballs too. Also notice in the photo that he successfully covered first base on an infield grounder. If you saw last night's Tigers game, you know the importance of that maneuver. The Lakeland crew at MotownSports was able to watch the game and they posted some details.
Fernando Rodney also pitched last night - for Toledo. he pitched two shutout innings allowing one hit and two walks and striking out one. Both Zumaya and Rodney have a ways to go before they will pitch for the Tigers but they are expected back some time this month if all goes well.
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
What's wrong with Miguel Cabrera?
Miguel Cabrera is viewed by many Tigers fans as the poster child of the Tigers poor first third of the 2008 season. Personally, I think there is plenty of blame to go around and I wouldn't single him out but I did expect him to be doing better than he is. So what's wrong with Miguel?
Table 1 shows the standard stats and he is clearly down across the board from his previous three seasons with the Marlins. After three consistent seasons, his BA has dropped from more .320 to .277, his slugging from .565 to .461 and his OPS from of .965 to .821 this year. That is obviously a substantial decrease in production. Now, if you compare his OPS to league average and adjust for home park (OPS+), it doesn't look quite as bad. He has gone from 50% above league average (150 OPS+) to 24% above average. It's still a sizable decrease though.
Table 1: Miguel Cabrera's standard stats
What's the problem? He sure seems to lack plate discipline and strike out a lot this year. Doesn't he? Table 2 presents his plate discipline stats abstracted from Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs. We can see that his walk percentage (11.8 in 2007 vs. 11.6 in 2008) and strike out percentage (21.6 in 2007 vs. 20.9 in 2008) are about the same this year as last year.
More detailed stats also do not reveal anything unusual. His pitches per plate appearance (3.68 in 2007 and 3.69 in 2008) are about the same this year as last. His OSWING% (percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which he swung) is higher than it was in 2005 and 2006 but almost the same as last year. ZSWING% (percentage of pitches inside the zone at which he swung) is lower than it was last year but about the same as it was in 2005-2006. His contact% (percentage of swings on which he made contact) has also not changed much from 2007. So, there is no indication of decreased discipline this year.
Table 2: Miguel Cabrera's plate discipline stats
Table 3, also abstracted from Fan Graphs, is a little more revealing. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) has dropped from .361 to .316. A drop in BABIP is often an indication that a batter is unlucky. That is, balls which dropped in for hits in the past are being caught this year.
However, a further look at the data indicate that something else might be going on here. While Cabrera's ground ball rate (44.9%) is significantly higher than it was in any of the previous three years, his line drive rate (15.0%) is substantially lower. Additionally, his rate of home runs per fly ball (11.9%) is much lower. All of this indicates to me that Cabrera is not hitting the ball as solidly as he did in the past.
Table 3: Miguel Cabrera's batted ball data
Table 1 shows the standard stats and he is clearly down across the board from his previous three seasons with the Marlins. After three consistent seasons, his BA has dropped from more .320 to .277, his slugging from .565 to .461 and his OPS from of .965 to .821 this year. That is obviously a substantial decrease in production. Now, if you compare his OPS to league average and adjust for home park (OPS+), it doesn't look quite as bad. He has gone from 50% above league average (150 OPS+) to 24% above average. It's still a sizable decrease though.
Table 1: Miguel Cabrera's standard stats
| Year | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
| 2005 | 685 | .323 | .385 | .561 | .947 | 151 |
| 2006 | 676 | .339 | .430 | .568 | .998 | 159 |
| 2007 | 680 | .320 | .401 | .565 | .965 | 150 |
| 2008 | 239 | .277 | .360 | .461 | .821 | 124 |
What's the problem? He sure seems to lack plate discipline and strike out a lot this year. Doesn't he? Table 2 presents his plate discipline stats abstracted from Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs. We can see that his walk percentage (11.8 in 2007 vs. 11.6 in 2008) and strike out percentage (21.6 in 2007 vs. 20.9 in 2008) are about the same this year as last year.
More detailed stats also do not reveal anything unusual. His pitches per plate appearance (3.68 in 2007 and 3.69 in 2008) are about the same this year as last. His OSWING% (percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which he swung) is higher than it was in 2005 and 2006 but almost the same as last year. ZSWING% (percentage of pitches inside the zone at which he swung) is lower than it was last year but about the same as it was in 2005-2006. His contact% (percentage of swings on which he made contact) has also not changed much from 2007. So, there is no indication of decreased discipline this year.
Table 2: Miguel Cabrera's plate discipline stats
| Year | BB% | K% | P/PA | OSWING% | ZSWING% | Contact% |
| 2005 | 9.5 | 20.4 | 3.84 | 23.5 | 68.4 | 79.2 |
| 2006 | 13.0 | 18.8 | 3.91 | 23.1 | 67.3 | 80.7 |
| 2007 | 11.8 | 21.6 | 3.68 | 30.2 | 74.3 | 76.7 |
| 2008 | 11.6 | 20.9 | 3.69 | 30.8 | 67.7 | 77.2 |
Table 3, also abstracted from Fan Graphs, is a little more revealing. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) has dropped from .361 to .316. A drop in BABIP is often an indication that a batter is unlucky. That is, balls which dropped in for hits in the past are being caught this year.
However, a further look at the data indicate that something else might be going on here. While Cabrera's ground ball rate (44.9%) is significantly higher than it was in any of the previous three years, his line drive rate (15.0%) is substantially lower. Additionally, his rate of home runs per fly ball (11.9%) is much lower. All of this indicates to me that Cabrera is not hitting the ball as solidly as he did in the past.
Table 3: Miguel Cabrera's batted ball data
| Year | BABIP | GB% | LD% | FB% | HR/FB |
| 2005 | .363 | 38.3 | 24.5 | 37.2 | 17.9 |
| 2006 | .382 | 40.3 | 24.2 | 35.5 | 15.6 |
| 2007 | .361 | 40.0 | 20.7 | 39.3 | 18.5 |
| 2008 | .316 | 44.9 | 15.0 | 40.1 | 11.9 |
Monday, June 02, 2008
Line-up imbalance
It is well known that the Tigers have a very right-handed dominated line-up. The only regulars who bat left-handed are Curtis Granderson and switch hitting Carlos Guillen. They have made a number of moves to get more left-handed including the acquisition of Jacque Jones during the off-season. Jones didn't work out so they have dipped into the minors for Clete Thomas, Matt Joyce and most recently Jeff Larish. The early season injury to Granderson did not help matters.
How much of a problem is this imbalance? Looking at Table 1 below, we can see that they hit for a much much better average versus left handed pitchers (.300) than right-handed pitchers (.256). They also slug much better versus southpaws (.481 vs LHP and .405 vs. RHP). Compounding the problem is the fact that opponents have recognized this trend and avoid pitching lefties against the Tigers. They have fewer plate appearances vs. LHP (351) than any team in the league (league average = 536).
Table 1: Team totals vs RHP and LHP
Table 2 below shows that several Tigers are doing substantially worse versus right-handers than left-handers: Placido Polanco (.698 OPS vs RHP and .910 OPS vs. LHP), Guillen (.813 and .911), Edgar Renteria (.603 and 1.138), Ivan Rodriguez (.630 and .748) and Marcus Thames (.524 and 1.256). Two players - Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera are doing equally as well versus RHP and LHP. Gary Sheffield and Brandon Inge have both hit RHP better than LHP but neither is doing particularly well against any kind of pitcher.
So, the line-up imbalance has been a significant problem and it's not likely to go away any time soon. I think we will continue to see the Tigers face an inordinate number of right-handed pitchers and probably suffer because of it. One key player who can make a difference is Granderson who is off to a slow start after his injury. After posting a 1.014 OPS versus righties in 2007, he is hitting just .783 this year. Another is the right-handed hitting Cabrera who hit .910 versus RHP last year as opposed to .824 this year. Other than that, we can probably expect to see Thomas, Joyce, Larish and probably some others shuttled between Detroit and Toledo throughout the year.
Table 2: Individuals versus RHP and LHP
* Bats left-handed
# Switch hitter
How much of a problem is this imbalance? Looking at Table 1 below, we can see that they hit for a much much better average versus left handed pitchers (.300) than right-handed pitchers (.256). They also slug much better versus southpaws (.481 vs LHP and .405 vs. RHP). Compounding the problem is the fact that opponents have recognized this trend and avoid pitching lefties against the Tigers. They have fewer plate appearances vs. LHP (351) than any team in the league (league average = 536).
Table 1: Team totals vs RHP and LHP
|
| PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Tigers vs RHP | 1,806 | .256 | .331 | .405 | .735 |
| Tigers vs. LHP | 351 | .300 | .351 | .481 | .832 |
| AL vs.RHP | 1,645 | .259 | .328 | .402 | .731 |
| AL vs. LHP | 536 | .261 | .330 | .398 | .719 |
Table 2 below shows that several Tigers are doing substantially worse versus right-handers than left-handers: Placido Polanco (.698 OPS vs RHP and .910 OPS vs. LHP), Guillen (.813 and .911), Edgar Renteria (.603 and 1.138), Ivan Rodriguez (.630 and .748) and Marcus Thames (.524 and 1.256). Two players - Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera are doing equally as well versus RHP and LHP. Gary Sheffield and Brandon Inge have both hit RHP better than LHP but neither is doing particularly well against any kind of pitcher.
So, the line-up imbalance has been a significant problem and it's not likely to go away any time soon. I think we will continue to see the Tigers face an inordinate number of right-handed pitchers and probably suffer because of it. One key player who can make a difference is Granderson who is off to a slow start after his injury. After posting a 1.014 OPS versus righties in 2007, he is hitting just .783 this year. Another is the right-handed hitting Cabrera who hit .910 versus RHP last year as opposed to .824 this year. Other than that, we can probably expect to see Thomas, Joyce, Larish and probably some others shuttled between Detroit and Toledo throughout the year.
Table 2: Individuals versus RHP and LHP
| Player | vs RHP | vs LHP | ||
|
| PA | OPS | PA | OPS |
| Granderson* | 138 | .783 | 9 | .444 |
| Polanco | 173 | .698 | 39 | .910 |
| Sheffield | 132 | .719 | 31 | .499 |
| Ordonez | 198 | .929 | 37 | .897 |
| Cabrera | 199 | .824 | 36 | .818 |
| Guillen# | 176 | .813 | 33 | .911 |
| Renteria | 175 | .603 | 34 | 1.138 |
| Rodriguez | 151 | .630 | 38 | .748 |
| Inge | 117 | .774 | 27 | .442 |
| Thames | 53 | .524 | 30 | 1.256 |
| Jones* | 86 | .429 | 15 | .067 |
| Thomas* | 60 | .615 | 7 | .571 |
| Joyce* | 57 | .810 | 2 | .000 |
# Switch hitter
Sunday, June 01, 2008
Tigers take series from Mariners
The Tigers scored 4 runs in the 9th today to break a 3-3 tie and then held on to win 7-5. The best thing about this game was that they probably came through in more tough situations than in other game this year. Jeremy Bonderman allowed 12 hits but walked nobody and got big outs when he needed them getting through 7 innings allowing just 3 runs. He got some help from Curtis Granderson who made a very good running catch in the 5th and then gunned down a runner at third with an excellent throw in the sixth. Placido Polanco also made a nice diving stop to get an out earlier in the game
Zach Miner survived a Magglio Ordonez error in in the 8th by working his way out of a runner on third and one out mess. The clutchness continued in the 9th when Brandon Inge worked a one out walk off of closer JJ Putz. Curtis Granderson then hit three vicious line drives in one at bat, the first two twisting foul and the third one staying fair for a single. Placido Polanco followed with a run scoring single. Magglio Ordonez then got an infield hit on a misplay by third basemen Adrian Beltre to plate another run. And finally the frustrating Miguel Cabrera doubled home two more to make it 7-3.
I don't know if you want to call Todd Jones' performance "clutch" but he continued his record of not blowing a lead all year. He did however allow a mammoth two run homer to Raul Ibanez and managed to put the potential tying run at the plate before retiring the last two batters.
So, it was a positive game and it gave them a 2-1 series victory over the Mariners. It should be noted, of course, that the Mariners are struggling even more than the Tigers. Also, the second game of the series was shutout number nine for the Bengals. They need to put several series victories together in a row before we can get excited. The best news of the season continues to be the fact that nobody seems to want the AL central. The Tigers picked up a game on the White Sox today and are somehow just six games out of first place.
Guillen in left
Carlos Guillen played his first game in left field today while Inge replaced him at third. It was a rather uneventful day for Guillen but he did make all the plays that came to him. He did make a couple of sub-par throws but they did no damage. Jim Leyland did not indicate that this would be a permanent arrangement but I don't think it's a one game thing either. I'm still a bit skeptical of Guillen's ability to handle the outfield on a regular basis but I like the idea of Inge at third so I hope Leyland gives it some time to see if it works.
Zach Miner survived a Magglio Ordonez error in in the 8th by working his way out of a runner on third and one out mess. The clutchness continued in the 9th when Brandon Inge worked a one out walk off of closer JJ Putz. Curtis Granderson then hit three vicious line drives in one at bat, the first two twisting foul and the third one staying fair for a single. Placido Polanco followed with a run scoring single. Magglio Ordonez then got an infield hit on a misplay by third basemen Adrian Beltre to plate another run. And finally the frustrating Miguel Cabrera doubled home two more to make it 7-3.
I don't know if you want to call Todd Jones' performance "clutch" but he continued his record of not blowing a lead all year. He did however allow a mammoth two run homer to Raul Ibanez and managed to put the potential tying run at the plate before retiring the last two batters.
So, it was a positive game and it gave them a 2-1 series victory over the Mariners. It should be noted, of course, that the Mariners are struggling even more than the Tigers. Also, the second game of the series was shutout number nine for the Bengals. They need to put several series victories together in a row before we can get excited. The best news of the season continues to be the fact that nobody seems to want the AL central. The Tigers picked up a game on the White Sox today and are somehow just six games out of first place.
Guillen in left
Carlos Guillen played his first game in left field today while Inge replaced him at third. It was a rather uneventful day for Guillen but he did make all the plays that came to him. He did make a couple of sub-par throws but they did no damage. Jim Leyland did not indicate that this would be a permanent arrangement but I don't think it's a one game thing either. I'm still a bit skeptical of Guillen's ability to handle the outfield on a regular basis but I like the idea of Inge at third so I hope Leyland gives it some time to see if it works.
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