Jeremy Bonderman held the Indians to 2 runs on 4 hits in 6 2/3 innings today as the Tigers cruised to a 9-2 victory. The win gave the Tigers a split of the 4 game series after the they lost the first two games in ugly fashion. Bonderman had his usual first inning problems allowing two runs on a double by Jhonny Peralta and a homer by Victor Martinez. However, he would not allow another hit until he gave up two singles in the seventh inning. The bullpen got the job done for the second straight game as Wil Ledezma and Jason Grilli combined for 2 1/3 shutout innings.
Bonderman has allowed just 4 earned runs and 12 hits in 21 innings over 3 games since returning from a stint on the disabled list with a blister problem. For the year, he has a 3.24 ERA which places him 10th in the league. His fielding independent statistics have been excellent as usual. Coming into the game his FIP ERA of 2.90 was 2nd in the league behind Josh Beckett. FIP ERA is based on walks, strikeouts and homers per 9 innings pitched and is theoretically the ERA a pitcher would have with an average defense behind him. He was 5th in the league in BB/9 IP (1.9), 9th in K/9 (8.4) and 10th in HR/9 (0.62).
The four game series between the two best hitting teams in baseball featured 64 runs and 104 and there not a lot of cheap hits among them. The Tigers now travel to Texas which is the best hitting environment in the American League. After a day off on Monday, it will be a 3 game series with Nate Robertson, Justin Verlander and Mike Maroth versus Vicente Padilla, Kevin Millwood and TBA.
Sunday, June 03, 2007
Saturday, June 02, 2007
Some Wild Projections
With the year reaching the one third mark last night, I thought I would project the Tigers final stats by tripling their current stats. They would finish 90-72 which is right about where I projected them prior to the season but some of the individual stats would be quite interesting:
- Curtis Granderson would get 51 doubles, 27 triples and 24 home runs to go with 18 stolen bases and 91 RBI out of the lead off spot. Sam Crawford would like those numbers.
- Magglio Ordonez would bat .353/.426/.667 with 81 doubles, 36 homers, 150 RBI and 141 runs. Those look like MVP numbers to me. Hank Greenberg would be impressed.
- Gary Sheffield would get 96 walks, 21 steals and score 141 runs. Those look like the stats of the perfect leadoff man.
- Sean Casey would get 0 homers.
- Jeremy Bonderman would go 12-0 and Chad Durbin 12-3.
- Todd Jones would have a 6.04 ERA but save 45 games.
- Jose Mesa would have a 12.34 ERA.
Tigers Get Some Relief
Tonight, the Tigers held on to their 4 run lead in the 9th as they beat the Indians 9-5. Chad Durbin allowed 5 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in 5 1/3 innings but left with an 8-5 lead. Then Tim Byrdak, Jason Grilli, Bobby Seay and Zach Miner combined for 3 2/3 shutout innings to preserve the victory. Tonight, the relievers were mixed and matched as opposed to last night when it was left mostly to Todd Jones.
I'm not exactlly sure who was making the managerial decisions tonight. Jim Leyland was thrown out of the game in the 4th inning for arguing balls and strikes with every umpire on the field for about 10 minutes. Gene Lamont took over the managerial duties with help from Lloyd McClendon but I would guess that Leyland was somehow delivering instructions. This is how I wished Leyland had managed last night's game. It might not have worked last night but I think mixing and matching would have been a better strategy than leaving Jones in the game to give up 5 runs when he obviously did not have it.
Tonight, you could say that it was the indians who gave the game away. With the scored tied 5-5 going into the 6th inning, the Tigers proceeded to score 3 unearned runs thanks to errors by Josh Barfield and Jhonny Peralta and a misplay by Casey Blake. They did do some heavy hitting though as they had 16 hits including 7 doubles and a home run. The hitting heroes were the amazing Magglio Ordonez (home run, double, 2 singles) and Pudge Rodriguez (2 doubles and 2 singles).
The victory tonight broke a 5 game losing streak to the Indians. They will try to gain a split in the 4 game series tomorrow afternoon when Jeremy Bonderman faces Jeremy Sowers.
I'm not exactlly sure who was making the managerial decisions tonight. Jim Leyland was thrown out of the game in the 4th inning for arguing balls and strikes with every umpire on the field for about 10 minutes. Gene Lamont took over the managerial duties with help from Lloyd McClendon but I would guess that Leyland was somehow delivering instructions. This is how I wished Leyland had managed last night's game. It might not have worked last night but I think mixing and matching would have been a better strategy than leaving Jones in the game to give up 5 runs when he obviously did not have it.
Tonight, you could say that it was the indians who gave the game away. With the scored tied 5-5 going into the 6th inning, the Tigers proceeded to score 3 unearned runs thanks to errors by Josh Barfield and Jhonny Peralta and a misplay by Casey Blake. They did do some heavy hitting though as they had 16 hits including 7 doubles and a home run. The hitting heroes were the amazing Magglio Ordonez (home run, double, 2 singles) and Pudge Rodriguez (2 doubles and 2 singles).
The victory tonight broke a 5 game losing streak to the Indians. They will try to gain a split in the 4 game series tomorrow afternoon when Jeremy Bonderman faces Jeremy Sowers.
Detroit Tigers Prospect Report - June 2, 2007
During the course of the year, I will be giving statistical updates and other information on the Tigers organization. I will cover all the consensus top prospects as well as other noteworthy perfomers. For daily recaps and other news on Tigers prospects, check out Matt Wallace's Take 75 North and Mike Cassidy's Tigers Minor League Blog.
Matt wrote an excellent article this week on ground ball and strikeout rates. In it, he shows how pitchers can be successful by trading strikeouts for ground balls. Like me, he is paying a lot of attention to ground ball rates of Tigers prospects such as Andrew Miller, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop. He wonders whether prospects with high ground ball rates but not so high strikeout rates can carry their success into the majors. We know that ground ball rate is fairly repeatable from year to year in the majors but I'm not sure about the minors to majors translation. I'm sure that will be an interesting area of reasearch over the next couple of years.
Now on to the prospect report. This week , I'm going to take a look at the progress of the consensus pre-season Top 20 prospects. The consensus is based on pre-season analyses by prospect experts such as Baseball America, John Sickels, Tigstown and MotownSports. I'm not an expert on prospects but I used my own judgement in cases where there was a wide difference of opinion on a particular player. Remember that this is not a current Top Prospect list. It's an update on the progress of the pre-season consensus.
1. Cameron Maybin is making solid progress at Lakeland this year but expectations of his patrolling the Comerica Park outfield in 2008 are probably too optimistic. He is batting .311/.428/.486 with 16 steals in 20 attempts in 49 games. His strikeout rate is still very high (58) but he also gets a lot of walks (35). Remember that he is still only 20 years old.
2. Andrew Miller has pitched for Lakeland, Erie and Detroit this year. He struggled a bit for Lakeland but much of that was due to an extreme ground ball pitcher getting no support from his infielders. In 3 starts for Erie, he has an 0.78 ERA and a 17/4 K/BB ratio in 23 innings. He pitched well in his only Tiger start (1 run in 6 innings) despite having a little trouble with his control. I expect him to get an opportunity in Detroit fairly soon.
3. Jair Jurrjens is doing well for AA Erie posting a 3.36 ERA and a 40/18 K/BB ratio in 56 innings. The 21 year old right-hander will likely spend the full season in the minors.
4. Jeff Larish continues to show excellent patience and power for Erie but has not improved his contact rate. He is batting .240 with 10 homeruns and a 32/43 K/BB ratio in 51 games. He is still an interesting prospect but does not appear to be on the verge of becoming the next first baseman for the Tigers any time soon. He is 24 years old.
5. Brent Clevlen has had a miserable season batting .207 with 51 K in 37 games for AAA Toledo. He is currently on the disabled list with a broken finger.
6. Gorkys Hernandez is just 19 years old and is developing into a very exciting propesct. He is batting .300/.357/.378 with 21 stolen bases in 25 attempts. He is also a very good center fielder. His weakness right now is thast he lacks power but that is expected to come later.
7. Jordan Tata has missed most of the season with a shoulder problem. He pitched 3 scoreless innings in his first start this week. He probably would be pitching for Detroit right now if he had been healthy all year.
8. Scott Sizemore is playing second base for A level West Michigan. He is struggling so far batting .230/.360/.333 but his 27/22 BB/K ratio is encouraging. I still expect his other stats to improve substantially by the end of the season.
9. Dallas Trahern is one of those extreme ground ball pitchers having success (2.64 ERA) despite a low strikeout rate (30 K in 58 innings). He did get one AAA start when Virgil Vasquez was called up to Detroit and handled it just fine (2 runs in 6 1/3 innings). I think we may see him pitch for the Tigers in some capacity in 2008.
10. Eulogio DeLaCruz has had more success as a starter than as a reliever although his ultimate major league role might be in the bullpen. In 10 starts this year, he has a 3.57 ERA and an excellent 57/16 K/BB ratio in 63 innings.
11. Mike Hollimon jumped two levels to play second base at AA Erie this year. He is not hitting for contact but is drawing a lot of walks and has a .246/.376/.400 line with a 34/44 BB/K ratio in 50 games. Making such a big leap involves a lot of adjustment so we may see some improvement as the season goes along.
12. Brennan Boesch - is making a slow progress at 22 years old playing in West Michigan this year. Last year's third round pick is batting .268/.292/.355. He is doing better than last year's second round pick however...
13. Ronnie Bourquin - played himself off the Lakeland roster by batting .192 with just 2 extra base hits in 26 games at third base. He is still just 22 but right now he is looking like he may turn out to be wasted second round pick.
14. Sendy Vasquez - had an 8.20 ERA in 18 2/3 innings for Lakeland and then received a 50 game suspension after testing positive for performance enhancing drugs. This isn't going to help his prospect status.
15. Jonah Nickerson has had a rough season with West Michigan. The 22 year old right-hander has a 6.14 ERA in 55 2/3 innings over 10 starts. His 44/16 K/BB ratio is encouraging however.
16. Wilken Ramirez has moved to the outfield and is playing his second season for Lakeland. He is still still struggling offensively batting .246/.273/.380 with 51 strikeouts in 48 games. There is still hope at 21 years old but he needs to start turning his physical tools into performance pretty soon.
17. Edward Campusano - came over from the Cubs system in the Rule 5 draft but is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
18. Kody Kirkland is still trying to turn his skills into performance at age 23 playing for Erie. He is batting .247/.316/.429.
19. Virgil Vasquez got off to a great start this year earning him a start for the Tigers but has not pitched as well since returning to Toledo. For the year, he has a 4.45 ERA and an impressive 67/16 K/BB ratio in 56 2/3 innings. He has been prone to the gopher ball giving up 9 homers so far.
20. Tony Giarratano has been on the disabled list all year after undergoing shoulder surgery. He also missed the second half of last season with a torn ACL. Once the 24 year old shortstop is finally healthy, he will play for either Erie or Toledo.
Matt wrote an excellent article this week on ground ball and strikeout rates. In it, he shows how pitchers can be successful by trading strikeouts for ground balls. Like me, he is paying a lot of attention to ground ball rates of Tigers prospects such as Andrew Miller, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop. He wonders whether prospects with high ground ball rates but not so high strikeout rates can carry their success into the majors. We know that ground ball rate is fairly repeatable from year to year in the majors but I'm not sure about the minors to majors translation. I'm sure that will be an interesting area of reasearch over the next couple of years.
Now on to the prospect report. This week , I'm going to take a look at the progress of the consensus pre-season Top 20 prospects. The consensus is based on pre-season analyses by prospect experts such as Baseball America, John Sickels, Tigstown and MotownSports. I'm not an expert on prospects but I used my own judgement in cases where there was a wide difference of opinion on a particular player. Remember that this is not a current Top Prospect list. It's an update on the progress of the pre-season consensus.
1. Cameron Maybin is making solid progress at Lakeland this year but expectations of his patrolling the Comerica Park outfield in 2008 are probably too optimistic. He is batting .311/.428/.486 with 16 steals in 20 attempts in 49 games. His strikeout rate is still very high (58) but he also gets a lot of walks (35). Remember that he is still only 20 years old.
2. Andrew Miller has pitched for Lakeland, Erie and Detroit this year. He struggled a bit for Lakeland but much of that was due to an extreme ground ball pitcher getting no support from his infielders. In 3 starts for Erie, he has an 0.78 ERA and a 17/4 K/BB ratio in 23 innings. He pitched well in his only Tiger start (1 run in 6 innings) despite having a little trouble with his control. I expect him to get an opportunity in Detroit fairly soon.
3. Jair Jurrjens is doing well for AA Erie posting a 3.36 ERA and a 40/18 K/BB ratio in 56 innings. The 21 year old right-hander will likely spend the full season in the minors.
4. Jeff Larish continues to show excellent patience and power for Erie but has not improved his contact rate. He is batting .240 with 10 homeruns and a 32/43 K/BB ratio in 51 games. He is still an interesting prospect but does not appear to be on the verge of becoming the next first baseman for the Tigers any time soon. He is 24 years old.
5. Brent Clevlen has had a miserable season batting .207 with 51 K in 37 games for AAA Toledo. He is currently on the disabled list with a broken finger.
6. Gorkys Hernandez is just 19 years old and is developing into a very exciting propesct. He is batting .300/.357/.378 with 21 stolen bases in 25 attempts. He is also a very good center fielder. His weakness right now is thast he lacks power but that is expected to come later.
7. Jordan Tata has missed most of the season with a shoulder problem. He pitched 3 scoreless innings in his first start this week. He probably would be pitching for Detroit right now if he had been healthy all year.
8. Scott Sizemore is playing second base for A level West Michigan. He is struggling so far batting .230/.360/.333 but his 27/22 BB/K ratio is encouraging. I still expect his other stats to improve substantially by the end of the season.
9. Dallas Trahern is one of those extreme ground ball pitchers having success (2.64 ERA) despite a low strikeout rate (30 K in 58 innings). He did get one AAA start when Virgil Vasquez was called up to Detroit and handled it just fine (2 runs in 6 1/3 innings). I think we may see him pitch for the Tigers in some capacity in 2008.
10. Eulogio DeLaCruz has had more success as a starter than as a reliever although his ultimate major league role might be in the bullpen. In 10 starts this year, he has a 3.57 ERA and an excellent 57/16 K/BB ratio in 63 innings.
11. Mike Hollimon jumped two levels to play second base at AA Erie this year. He is not hitting for contact but is drawing a lot of walks and has a .246/.376/.400 line with a 34/44 BB/K ratio in 50 games. Making such a big leap involves a lot of adjustment so we may see some improvement as the season goes along.
12. Brennan Boesch - is making a slow progress at 22 years old playing in West Michigan this year. Last year's third round pick is batting .268/.292/.355. He is doing better than last year's second round pick however...
13. Ronnie Bourquin - played himself off the Lakeland roster by batting .192 with just 2 extra base hits in 26 games at third base. He is still just 22 but right now he is looking like he may turn out to be wasted second round pick.
14. Sendy Vasquez - had an 8.20 ERA in 18 2/3 innings for Lakeland and then received a 50 game suspension after testing positive for performance enhancing drugs. This isn't going to help his prospect status.
15. Jonah Nickerson has had a rough season with West Michigan. The 22 year old right-hander has a 6.14 ERA in 55 2/3 innings over 10 starts. His 44/16 K/BB ratio is encouraging however.
16. Wilken Ramirez has moved to the outfield and is playing his second season for Lakeland. He is still still struggling offensively batting .246/.273/.380 with 51 strikeouts in 48 games. There is still hope at 21 years old but he needs to start turning his physical tools into performance pretty soon.
17. Edward Campusano - came over from the Cubs system in the Rule 5 draft but is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
18. Kody Kirkland is still trying to turn his skills into performance at age 23 playing for Erie. He is batting .247/.316/.429.
19. Virgil Vasquez got off to a great start this year earning him a start for the Tigers but has not pitched as well since returning to Toledo. For the year, he has a 4.45 ERA and an impressive 67/16 K/BB ratio in 56 2/3 innings. He has been prone to the gopher ball giving up 9 homers so far.
20. Tony Giarratano has been on the disabled list all year after undergoing shoulder surgery. He also missed the second half of last season with a torn ACL. Once the 24 year old shortstop is finally healthy, he will play for either Erie or Toledo.
Friday, June 01, 2007
Tigers Blow 4 Run Lead in 9th
In what may have been the worst loss of the Jim Leyland era, the Tigers blew a 4 run lead in the 9th to lose to the Indians 12-11. Todd Jones came into this one in the 8th inning, the first time he has entered a game before the 9th inning in two years. He did not have it. He gave up a couple of hits and a run in the 8th. He was hurt by by a Curtis Granderson throwing error but also aided by a sliding catch of a line drive by Magglio Ordonez ending the inning. The Tigers led 9-7 after 8 innings.
The Tigers then scored 2 runs in the 9th to take an 11-7 lead and Jones came back out to finish it. He proceeded to allow a one out single single to Casey Blake, a walk to Travis Hafner, a 3 run homer to Victor Martinez, and a double to Jhonny Peralta. Tiger fans watched in horror as Jim Leyland refused to pull Jones from the game. He did get Ryan Garko on strikes for the second out but then Leyland ordered Jones to walk Trot Nixon intentionally. This put the winning run on base which is generally considered a baseball no no. Josh Barfield followed with a single to tie it. David Dellucci followed with a game winning single.
Like Billfer, I rarely hold managers accountable for losses because they have so much more information than me. However, I have to pin the blame for this one on Leyland as much as Jones. Jones clearly did not have it and wound up throwing 46 pitches which is way beyond his usual workload. The Tigers have no depebdable relievers on the staff right now but a fresh arm should have been brought in for the struggling Jones. Bobby Seay was warming up during the 9th but was never used.
Starting pitcher Mike Maroth also lost a 4 run lead in this one. He gave up 4 runs in the 6th inning as a 5-1 lead became a 5-5 tie very fast. Jhonny Peralta and Jason Michaels each crushed 2 run homers. He had also allowed a solo shot to Victor Martinez in the 4th.
So baseball's best pitching staff of 2006 has turned into a mess this year. Most of the problem is with the bullpen but the starters have had their problems as of late as well. Chad Durbin, who has surpsisingly been one of their most consistent pitchers over the past month, will give it a shot tomorrow night versus Cliff Lee
The Tigers then scored 2 runs in the 9th to take an 11-7 lead and Jones came back out to finish it. He proceeded to allow a one out single single to Casey Blake, a walk to Travis Hafner, a 3 run homer to Victor Martinez, and a double to Jhonny Peralta. Tiger fans watched in horror as Jim Leyland refused to pull Jones from the game. He did get Ryan Garko on strikes for the second out but then Leyland ordered Jones to walk Trot Nixon intentionally. This put the winning run on base which is generally considered a baseball no no. Josh Barfield followed with a single to tie it. David Dellucci followed with a game winning single.
Like Billfer, I rarely hold managers accountable for losses because they have so much more information than me. However, I have to pin the blame for this one on Leyland as much as Jones. Jones clearly did not have it and wound up throwing 46 pitches which is way beyond his usual workload. The Tigers have no depebdable relievers on the staff right now but a fresh arm should have been brought in for the struggling Jones. Bobby Seay was warming up during the 9th but was never used.
Starting pitcher Mike Maroth also lost a 4 run lead in this one. He gave up 4 runs in the 6th inning as a 5-1 lead became a 5-5 tie very fast. Jhonny Peralta and Jason Michaels each crushed 2 run homers. He had also allowed a solo shot to Victor Martinez in the 4th.
So baseball's best pitching staff of 2006 has turned into a mess this year. Most of the problem is with the bullpen but the starters have had their problems as of late as well. Chad Durbin, who has surpsisingly been one of their most consistent pitchers over the past month, will give it a shot tomorrow night versus Cliff Lee
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