Brewers Good and Perhaps Lucky in 2011

Yesterday, I examined run differential versus wins for American League teams.  Today, I'll take a look at the National League.  While the Brewers won 96 games in route to the National League Central Division title in 2011, they were not a dominant team in terms of run production and prevention.

The table below shows that the Brewers scored 721 runs and allowed 638, for a run differential of 83.  This would typically translate into 89 wins or seven fewer than their actual win total.  The table below shows that the Brewers outperformed their predicted wins by more than any team in the league. 

Table 1: Wins Versus Expected Wins for National League Teams, 2011

TEAM	RS	RA	RS-RA	W	EW	W-EW
MIL	721	638	83	96	89	7
ARI	731	662	69	94	88	6
SFG	570	578	-8	86	80	6
ATL	641	605	36	89	85	4
PHI	713	529	184	102	99	3
STL	762	692	70	90	88	2
PIT	610	712	-102	72	71	1
WSN	624	643	-19	80	79	1
CHC	654	756	-102	71	71	0
FLA	625	702	-77	72	73	-1
LAD	644	612	32	82	84	-2
NYM	718	742	-24	77	79	-2
CIN	735	720	15	79	83	-4
COL	735	774	-39	73	77	-4
HOU	615	796	-181	56	63	-7
SDP	593	611	-18	71	79	-8

The main reason for the discrepancy in Milwaukee's wins and expected wins was their outstanding 30-18 record in one-run games.  Part of that was likely due to a strong bullpen headed by closer John Axford.  However, it is difficult for any team to sustain such a good record in close games for a full year.  So, there may also have been some good fortune involved.  In order to win the same number of games next year, they'll probably need to either score more runs or give up fewer.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Padres had a run differential of -18 (593 runs scores and 611 runs allowed) which was better than seven other NL teams.  However, they finished with the second worst record in the league.  Their 71 wins was eight games below their 79 expected wins which was the biggest negative differential in the league. 

The reason for the gap between the Padres wins and expected wins was a 20-31 record in one-run games coupled with a 10-4 record in games decided by seven runs or more. That seems fluky to me and suggests they were probably a little better than their final record suggests.