tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17907776.post2939185056358953279..comments2024-01-08T14:50:08.705-05:00Comments on Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog: Jack Morris and pitching to the scoreLee Panashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17148118898954670307noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17907776.post-54552130359111541822008-12-23T22:08:00.000-05:002008-12-23T22:08:00.000-05:00Jeff,I agree that bullpen management could play a ...Jeff,I agree that bullpen management could play a role in this as well. There are so many variables. I do think I'm going to try this again in a few weeks controlling for run environment and inning and see what kind of results I get.Lee Panashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17148118898954670307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17907776.post-60300737199852200802008-12-22T10:55:00.000-05:002008-12-22T10:55:00.000-05:00I enjoyed reading this. Like other readers I was ...I enjoyed reading this. Like other readers I was surprised by the symmetry.<BR/><BR/>Sorry to confound things further, but let me play the skeptic.<BR/><BR/>Suppose as a manager I have a pitcher having a so-so, or bad day. If the run differential is large I might leave the pitcher out there to rest the pen if they need it. In a close game I would probably replace the pitcher regardless of the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17907776.post-26457419534863656732008-12-22T01:04:00.000-05:002008-12-22T01:04:00.000-05:00MGL, Thanks for the long critique. Everything you...MGL, Thanks for the long critique. Everything you said makes sense. There is just one point where I disagree. For starting pitchers, I don't think you would expect ERA to go down when they are behind by a lot of runs. If a pitcher is behind by a lot of runs, it probably means he hasn't been pitching well that day and might be expected to continue having problems.Lee Panashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17148118898954670307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17907776.post-51006205676628142392008-12-22T00:31:00.000-05:002008-12-22T00:31:00.000-05:00Ditto what Colin said. You have to control for pa...Ditto what Colin said. You have to control for park, inning, and general run environment to determine whether all pitchers as a group pitch to the score.<BR/><BR/>I would guess that once you do that, most of the difference will disappear. I would also think to some extent all pitchers DO pitch to the score. Why would you want to expend a lot of energy or risk injury when you are up or down by Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17907776.post-39296398074308857482008-12-21T15:15:00.000-05:002008-12-21T15:15:00.000-05:00Good points Charles. Walk rate and strikeout rate...Good points Charles. Walk rate and strikeout rate would be good next steps.<BR/><BR/>Colin, I will keep your points in mind as well, although they may go beyond what I have time to do. I can't spend a lifetime denigrating one of my childhood heroes. :-)<BR/><BR/>LeeLee Panashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17148118898954670307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17907776.post-76442212833006086652008-12-21T14:53:00.000-05:002008-12-21T14:53:00.000-05:00The problem with this study is that a larger run d...The problem with this study is that a larger run differential is more likely to happen in a league/park/etc. where run scoring is more common. (It's also more likely to be facing a high run differential in later innings, when a starting pitcher typically does not pitch as well.) You have to compare the runs a pitcher would allow that year, in that league, and in that park ignoring the run Colin Wyershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17189081667691281016noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17907776.post-24791054511631609302008-12-21T13:47:00.000-05:002008-12-21T13:47:00.000-05:00Thanks! I look forward to reading them. By the w...Thanks! I look forward to reading them. <BR/><BR/>By the way, I understand the UZRs on Fangraphs are with BIPS Data rather then STATS Data. I Think there are still UZRs available somewhere with the STATS Data I just have no idea where or how to find them. I would be very interested in how these two compare if you have access to both. And of course I would like to see both BIPS UZRs and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17907776.post-54814581520804099192008-12-21T08:54:00.000-05:002008-12-21T08:54:00.000-05:00I was thinking about that Sheehan study a couple o...I was thinking about that Sheehan study a couple of weeks ago when the HOF ballot was in the news, but I wouldn't have known where to find it. Thanks for the reprise and for takng it to the next level with the comparison to all the other starters. <BR/><BR/>I'm wondering if WHIP might be a good test of "pitching to the score"? If you have a big lead and just throw fastballs for strikes, perhapsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17907776.post-9278391253879422242008-12-20T18:59:00.000-05:002008-12-20T18:59:00.000-05:00Yes, I plan to do that. I'm currently collecting ...Yes, I plan to do that. I'm currently collecting the data and then I need to merge it. Merging is the most time consuming part because different databases use different player names. I'll start posting the results some time in January. <BR/><BR/>The main refinement this year will be that the UZR data is now fully available on fan graphs. Last year, I was only able to include leaders and Lee Panashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17148118898954670307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17907776.post-54398000044919871072008-12-20T18:34:00.000-05:002008-12-20T18:34:00.000-05:00Love you work. Thanks for all the effort. I have...Love you work. Thanks for all the effort. I have an off topic question. Do you plan on doing an averageing of all the different defensive metrics again this year? If so, when can we expect to see it? I for one very much appriciateed it the last two years and hope you plan on continuing to do it and refine it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com