Which Players were Best at Advancing Runners in 2012?

In earlier posts, I discussed some statistics which described how runs are scored.  First, I touched upon Baseball Prospectus' Others Batted In Percentage statistic which is the percent of runners on base which a batter drives in.  Then I introduced the Runs Assisted measure which is the number of runs to which a batted contributed without getting a run scored or RBI. In this post, I'll talk about other things that can happen in a plate appearance where there are runners on base.  

The events that can occur when batters are presented with base runners can be put into two broad categories (Advancement and Non-advancement) and five sub-categories.  There are three types of Advances (ADV):

• Other Batted In (OBI) - A base runner is driven in by the batter.  It's the same thing as an RBI except a player does not get credit for driving himself in with a home run.

• Run Assisted (RAS) - A batter advances a runner to either second or third with a hit, base on balls, hit batsmen, error, sacrifice bunt, or another kind of out.  If that runner then scores either during the same at bat or an ensuing at bat, the batter who advanced him is given a Run Assisted.

• Unrewarded Advancement (UNR) - A batter advances a runner, but the runner does not score by the end of the inning.  

When I first presented the Runs Assisted metric, I also included a second part to the definition: "A batter reaches base and is removed for a pinch runner or is replaced by another runner on a force out.  If the new runner then scores, the batter who originally reached base is given a Run Assisted".   Here, I am only looking at whether a batter advances base runners, so the second portion is excluded.

There are two types of Non-advances (NADV):

• Neutral (NEU) - A batter does not advance a runner, but there are no outs on the play. (e.g. a walk with a runner on second)

• Giveaway (GA) - A batter fails to advance a runner and one or more outs are made either at the plate or on the bases.

It is possible to have an Advance and a Giveaway in the same plate appearance.  For example, a batter comes up with runners on first and second and hits into a force out at second advancing the runner to third.  In that case, he gets credit for a Giveaway for the first runner and an Advance (either a RAS or UNR) for the second runner.  These statistics are discussed further in the comments section of a post at Tom Tango's Book Blog.  I basically followed his algorithm presented in comment #31. I have not yet programmed the odd-ball occurrences discussed, but they should not change the results too much.   

 Table 1: Advancement of Runners by League , 2012

League	American		National
Category	n	%	n	%
Baserunners	50,866	100.0	58,708	100.0
Advances	19,513	38.4	22,282	38.0
Others Batted In	7,129	14.0	7,936	13.5
Runs Assisted	5,401	10.6	6,013	10.2
Unrewarded Advances	6,983	13.7	8,333	14.2
Non-advances	31,353	61.6	36,426	62.0
Neutrals	2,295	4.5	2,924	5.0
Giveaways	29,058	57.1	33,502	57.1

Table 1 shows that there were 50,866 batters on base in all American League plate appearances in 2012. A total of 19,513 (or 38.4%) were advanced including Others Batted In (14.0%), Runs Assisted (10.6%) and Unrewarded Advances (13.7%).  There were 31,353 Non-advances (61.6%) including Neutrals (4.5%) and Giveaways (57.1%).   The National League percentages were similar.

These counting statistics are not a replacement for Batting Runs or True Average or any of your other favorite batting evaluation statistics.  Their primary purpose is to fill gaps in baseball data collection.  I find it interesting to know how successful a batter was in advancing runners and how often he failed.  In a more sophisticated analysis, these statistics might possibly have some practical use in building batting orders or in looking at the age-old clutch questions.  This post only serves as an introduction to some new statistical categories. 

Table 2 shows that Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday advanced more runners (204) than any player in baseball in 2012.  The American League leader was Twins catcher Joe Mauer with 203.  Table 3 tells us that Josh Reddick of the Athletics failed to advance 297 base runners, the highest total in the majors.

Table 2: Runners Advanced Leaders, 2012

Player	Team	OBI	RAS	UNR	ADV
Matt Holliday	SLN	75	60	69	204
Joe Mauer	MIN	75	66	62	203
Miguel Cabrera	DET	95	49	55	199
Prince Fielder	DET	78	42	75	195
Robinson Cano	NYA	61	59	72	192
Josh Willingham	MIN	75	45	69	189
Elvis Andrus	TEX	59	55	72	186
Martin Prado	ATL	60	63	61	184
Carlos Beltran	SLN	65	44	74	183
Buster Posey	SFN	79	46	58	183

Table 3: Non-Advancement Leaders, 2012

Player	Team	NEU	GA	NADV
Josh Reddick	OAK	24	273	297
Robinson Cano	NYA	29	255	284
Delmon Young	DET	7	270	277
Rickie Weeks	MIL	28	247	275
Jay Bruce	CIN	27	245	272
Josh Willingham	MIN	30	240	270
Curtis Granderson	NYA	18	252	270
Adam LaRoche	WAS	25	242	267
Prince Fielder	DET	40	221	261
Alex Rios	CHA	10	250	260

 

Advances and Non-advances are counting statistics which tell us as much about opportunity as proficiency, so it's useful to compute a rate.  There are several ways that could be done, but one simple one is Advance Percentage (ADV%).  Table 4 indicates that Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus advanced 186 of 369 baserunners for a .504 percentage.  This was the top percentage among players with 200 or more base runners in their plate appearances.  The trailers are shown in Table 5 led by Reds shortstop Zack Cozart at .261. 

Table 4: Advance Percentage Leaders, 2012

Player	Team	BR	ADV	ADV%
Elvis Andrus	TEX	369	186	.504
Martin Prado	ATL	372	184	.495
Joe Mauer	MIN	414	203	.490
John Jaso	SEA	229	111	.485
Joey Votto	CIN	263	127	.483
Garrett Jones	PIT	321	155	.483
Alberto Callaspo	ANA	295	141	.478
Jonathan Lucroy	MIL	237	113	.477
Jon Jay	SLN	267	127	.476
Melky Cabrera	SFN	295	138	.468

 

Table 5: Advance Percentage Trailers, 2012

Player	Team	BR	ADV	ADV%
Zack Cozart	CIN	249	65	.261
Jemile Weeks	OAK	245	70	.286
Rickie Weeks	MIL	389	114	.293
Josh Reddick	OAK	424	127	.300
Rod Barajas	PIT	217	66	.304
Andres Torres	NYN	241	76	.315
Bryan LaHair	CHN	209	66	.316
Logan Morrison	MIA	218	69	.317
Wilin Rosario	COL	252	80	.317
John Buck	MIA	239	76	.318

 

In order to account for both quality and quantity, one can also calculate Advances Above Average (ADVAA).  The American League average ADV% was .384, so Andrus had 186 ADV - .384 * 369 BR = 44 ADVAA.  This says that he advanced 44 more runners than you would expect from an average player in the same number of opportunities.  The leaders and trailers in ADVAA are presented in Tables 6 and 7 below. 

Table 6: Runners Advanced Above Average Leaders, 2012

Player	Team	BR	ADV	ADVAA
Elvis Andrus	TEX	369	186	44
Joe Mauer	MIN	414	203	44
Martin Prado	ATL	372	184	43
Garrett Jones	PIT	321	155	33
Matt Holliday	SLN	458	204	30
Torii Hunter	ANA	370	171	29
Miguel Cabrera	DET	444	199	29
Alberto Callaspo	ANA	295	141	28
Joey Votto	CIN	263	127	27
Jason Kipnis	CLE	403	181	26

 

Table 7: Runners Advanced Above Average Trailers, 2012

Player	Team	BR	ADV	ADVAA
Josh Reddick	OAK	424	127	-36
Rickie Weeks	MIL	389	114	-34
Zack Cozart	CIN	249	65	-30
Shelley Duncan	CLE	180	45	-24
Jemile Weeks	OAK	245	70	-24
Delmon Young	DET	415	138	-21
Jeff Francoeur	KCA	355	115	-21
Nick Hundley	SDN	169	43	-21
John McDonald	ARI	150	37	-20
Ike Davis	NYN	387	127	-20

  
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